Category: Your Money

Analysis: INDIAINFO

Today’s pick is INDIAINFO [stockquote]INDIAINFO[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a rush towards Rs. 80 levels, after finding resistance around the levels, it started its descent to find support around Rs. 45 levels in May. Since then, the stock had been on an uptrend reaching its 52 week’s high of Rs. 92 in the month of December. However post December it is in a correction mode. In the last three months, the stock moved -27% vs. -2% of Nifty’s.

INDIAINFO technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are closing in towards the over-sold territory. The stock is currently trading in the lower range of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical saw a 9X4 bearish cross-over a few days ago.

The MACD line has bearishly penetrated the signal line and the drop in the histogram level suggests a short-term bearish move. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are inverted in a bearish move.

INDIAINFO Correlation chart

INDIAINFO’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.65, which is positive and strong. The scrip will be closely replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

INDIAINFO volatility chart

INDIAINFO has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.6 to 1.4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional move of the GMMA lines.

For a better picture of the NBFC sector as a whole, you can look at what the experts have to say here and here.

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Analysis: LUPIN

Today’s pick is LUPIN [stockquote]LUPIN[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend since the start of the year. It reached its 52 week’s high of Rs. 622 in the month of September. It is currently under long term pennant formation. In the last three months, the stock moved +2% vs. a flat Nifty.

LUPIN Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently in no-man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the upper range of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a 9X18 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line has bullishly penetrated the signal line after very long. However, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are moving very close to each other without giving any directional bias to the stock.

LUPIN Correlation chart

LUPIN’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.29, which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

LUPIN Volatility chart

LUPIN has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional break-out of the pennant. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

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Call Reviews – Part VI

Here is the 6th post of the Call Reviews series, where we come forward and discuss the performance of our calls made as a part of daily analysis posts that we have been posting over the last 6 months. We are looking at five calls in each post. Remember again we are only looking at the short-term calls.

For Crompton Greaves Ltd. [stockquote]CROMPGREAV[/stockquote] in this post we gave a buy call. Its 5 day performance was 1.3%. NIFTY during the same period was up 3%.

For Sesa Goa Ltd. [stockquote]SESAGOA[/stockquote] in the next post we asked to buy. The stock had moved 7.6% next 5 days. NIFTY was up 1.9% during the same period.

For West Coast Paper Ltd. [stockquote]WSTCSTPAPR[/stockquote], in the following week’s post we gave a buy call. The stock was up 8% in the next 5 days.

In the next post, we picked MTNL Ltd. [stockquote]MTNL[/stockquote] and gave a buy call. The stock moved 13.1% over the next 5 days. NIFTY during the same period had moved up 0.7%.

Our last pick of the day, for ETF GOLDBEES Ltd. [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. The ETF moved -0.7% over the next 5 days period.

This gives our cumulative calls an accuracy level of 63%.

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Call Reviews – Part V

Here is the 5th post of the Call Reviews series, where we come forward and discuss the performance of our calls made as a part of daily analysis posts that we have been posting over the last 6 months. We are looking at five calls in each post. Remember again we are only looking at the short-term calls.

For Tata Global Ltd. [stockquote]TATAGLOBAL[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. Its 5 day performance was 2.55%.

For Siemens Ltd. [stockquote]SIEMENS[/stockquote] in the next post we asked to buy. The stock had moved 0.4% next 5 days. During the same period NIFTY was up 2.7%.

For Idea Ltd. [stockquote]IDEA[/stockquote], in the following week’s post we gave a sell call. The stock was up 6.8% in the next 5 days.

In the next post, we picked Maruti Ltd. [stockquote]MARUTI[/stockquote] and gave a buy call. The stock moved -1.3% over the next 5 days.

Our last pick of the day, for Infosys Ltd. [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. The stock moved +0.9% over the next 5 days period.

This gives our cumulative calls an accuracy level of 56%.

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Analysis: INFY

Today’s pick is INFY [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]. The stock has been very volatile for most part of the last year. It started the year with a range bound movement between Rs.2,800 and Rs.2,900 and saw a bearish breakdown in April. The stock then fell to Rs. 2,200 levels. After spending 8 months between Rs. 2,200 and Rs. 2,600 the stock broke past the channel in January, to move towards its 52 weeks high of Rs. 3,000 levels. In the last three months, the stock moved +25% vs. a flat Nifty.

INFY Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently in no-man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a 18X9 and 9X4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line has bearishly penetrated the signal line, and the histogram levels are dropping to confirm the bearish move. However, the Long-term GMMA lines have been expanding as opposed to the contracting short-term lines. This is adding to the in-decisiveness about the direction of stock move.

INFY Correlation chart

INFY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.50, which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

INFY Volatility chart

INFY has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

INFY Analysts Coverage

Analysts have a bullish outlook for the stock, the next set of earnings might make a difference in the stocks outlook.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A long-term hold is also suggested if the stock holds above Rs. 2,600. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

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