Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Why are all the good guys taken?

world.2015-02-13.2015-02-20

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.80%
CAC(FRA) +1.50%
UKX(GBR) +0.61%
NKY(JPN) +2.34%
SPX(USA) +0.88%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.48%
INMEX(MEX) +1.36%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +6.52%
XU030(TUR) -0.50%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.08%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.34%
NIFTY(IND) +0.32%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.47%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.30%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.67%
RBOB Gasoline +1.77%
WTI Crude Oil -3.96%
Heating Oil +8.30%
Natural Gas +5.42%
Ethanol +0.28%
Metals
Palladium -1.69%
Platinum -3.61%
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz -2.36%
Silver 5000oz -3.53%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.14% USDJPY:+0.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.21%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.90%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.94%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.32%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.21%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.25%
USDINR(IND) +0.04%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.38%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.05%
Agricultural
Cattle -2.49%
Cocoa +1.04%
Cotton +2.94%
Lean Hogs +8.86%
Soybean Meal +4.14%
Soybeans +0.83%
Sugar #11 -3.09%
Wheat -4.05%
White Sugar -0.47%
Coffee (Arabica) -9.31%
Feeder Cattle -2.69%
Lumber -2.84%
Corn -0.13%
Orange Juice -4.07%
Coffee (Robusta) -3.28%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.20%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.06%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.35%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.89%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.29%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.72%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -12.07%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.86%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.22%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.66%
Most equity markets ended this week on a positive note. The precious metals complex, however, were gasping for breath. The US Dollar rally remained somewhat intact. Credit spreads mostly tighter…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-02-13.2015-02-20

Index Returns

index performance.2015-02-13.2015-02-20

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-02-13.2015-02-20

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-02-13.2015-02-20

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.96% 71/62
2 +0.48% 62/71
3 +5.52% 72/61
4 +3.51% 75/58
5 +2.91% 69/64
6 +2.53% 69/64
7 +2.77% 69/64
8 +2.84% 70/63
9 +3.18% 68/65
10 (mega) +2.73% 66/67
Midcaps outperformed the large-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +7.76%
CONCOR +11.59%
JINDALSTEL +27.59%
HEROMOTOCO -6.80%
GODREJCP -6.25%
PETRONET -5.68%
Bharatforge was up on defense and joint-venture announcements; Hero Motors’ promoters are dumping their own stock and the market is not taking it lying down…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +2.11%
CPSEETF +1.77%
INFRABEES +0.54%
JUNIORBEES +0.12%
NIFTYBEES -0.24%
GOLDBEES -1.10%
BANKBEES -2.12%
Private vs. Public sector banks: a delicate balance between the well and awfully managed; between efficiency and never-ending bailouts; profit-motive vs. political calculus; a cold-embrace where just when one tries to make a profit, the other can light tax-payer money on fire…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-02-13.2015-02-20

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.10 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.21 +0.05%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.10 +0.37%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.04 -0.21%
Flat curve, flatter P&L

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Why are there lots of single “boring Bernards and psycho Suzies?”

Because good couples stay together for longer.
Even if there is a large share of good romantic partners, most single people are crazy.
Even if only 50% of the population is crazy, in equilibrium around 63% of single people are crazy.

Source: A Dynamic Theory of Romantic Choice

Visualizing Fund Portfolios

Tracking the big guys

Small investors can stay nimble and can buy stocks in companies that big investors or funds cannot. If you are a small and smart investor, you should be able to generate market beating returns over the long-run. But what about funds that generate superior returns in spite of their large size? Given that portfolio disclosures have to be made every month and the manager cannot really predict the cashflows in and out of his fund, if he is consistently beating the market, it points to some real skill (or a really long streak of good luck, we’ll let you be the judge.)

Irrespective of whether it was skill or luck that produced the alpha, it makes sense for individual investors to track what different fund managers are doing. Besides, if you are thinking for buying or selling a fund, you should get comfortable with the manager. But how do you go about visualizing a fund?

NAV based metrics

Our FundCompare tool provides a convenient way to chart fund performance vs. different benchmarks, observe historical drawdowns, etc. For example, if you wanted to compare IDBI Equity Advantage Fund to the MNC index, you can do that with the tool. (http://svz.bz/1CQUAI0)

But what if you wanted to drill into the actual portfolio? Most websites give you a static snapshot of the portfolio on the latest disclosure date. But anybody who has managed money will know that portfolios are path-dependent.

Portfolio Videos

Given the sheer size of the data, it makes sense to try and visualize portfolios through videos. Here’s how the IDBI Equity Advantage Fund portfolio “looks” like:

It is almost as if the manager did his portfolio selection back in Jan 2014 and let his winners ride. An almost static portfolio, much like our Themes.

Contrast that to ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund:

This manager is way more active than his IDBI counterpart, going in and out of stocks at a rapid clip. A lot of small positions, except for ICICI bank which is almost 8% of the fund. Given the size of the fund (more than 8,500 crores), the market impact on these trades are likely to be significant.

The UTI MNC Fund takes a different track: a smaller portfolio with concentrated positions and very few high in-and-outs.

There you have it: three different funds and three different approaches to portfolio construction and management, easily told apart through 45-second video clips.

Coming up next

We plan to roll out portfolio videos for the funds that we have recommended our clients and in which we have ourselves invested. If you have any specific funds in mind that you want us to create videos for or looking to invest, give us a call or send us a WhatsApp!

Weekly Recap: The Arc of Company Life

world.2015-2-6.2015-2-13

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.08%
CAC(FRA) +1.46%
UKX(GBR) +0.29%
NKY(JPN) +1.50%
SPX(USA) +1.59%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.59%
INMEX(MEX) +0.73%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -8.00%
XU030(TUR) +1.01%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.47%
SHCOMP(CHN) +4.16%
NIFTY(IND) +1.67%
INDEXCF(RUS) +4.71%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.18%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +6.49%
Brent Crude Oil +5.51%
RBOB Gasoline +3.90%
WTI Crude Oil +0.82%
Ethanol +0.91%
Natural Gas +8.33%
Metals
Copper +0.38%
Gold 100oz -0.19%
Palladium +1.06%
Platinum -1.06%
Silver 5000oz -1.16%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.68% USDJPY:-0.34%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.40%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.21%
USDNGN(NGA) +4.98%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.84%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.18%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.07%
USDINR(IND) +0.80%
USDRUB(RUS) -5.79%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.23%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -2.40%
Cotton +2.06%
Soybeans +2.03%
Cocoa +3.01%
Coffee (Robusta) +3.88%
Corn +1.17%
Feeder Cattle +2.03%
Lean Hogs -3.62%
Sugar #11 +2.13%
Cattle +2.50%
Lumber -0.61%
Orange Juice +2.07%
Soybean Meal +1.28%
Wheat +1.52%
White Sugar +0.03%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.17%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.08%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.71%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.07%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.53%
Markit iTraxx Europe +3.69%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +10.76%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.11%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.75%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.19%
All in all, a good week for the equity markets.
The energy complex found a bid – remains to be seen if it was a dead cat bounce or something more significant.
Credit was mostly tighter – probably a reflection of the worsening finances of fracking cos.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap.2015-2-6.2015-2-13

Index Returns

index performance.2015-2-6.2015-2-13

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-2-6.2015-2-13

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-2-6.2015-2-13

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -5.53% 57/76
2 -3.58% 60/72
3 -3.05% 61/71
4 -2.19% 55/77
5 -1.60% 58/74
6 -1.09% 69/64
7 -0.20% 65/67
8 +0.47% 67/66
9 +0.73% 64/68
10 (mega) +0.39% 66/67
The rally was primarily driven by large caps…

Top Winners and Losers

SRTRANSFIN +10.52%
ADANIPORTS +11.71%
BHARATFORG +12.33%
OIL -8.56%
INFRATEL -5.13%
DLF -5.05%
Shriram Transport is easily one of the most volatile stocks out there… And will DLF be able to survive a Kejriwal – Raje 1-2 punch?

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +3.94%
BANKBEES +3.16%
JUNIORBEES +1.72%
NIFTYBEES +1.22%
INFRABEES -1.06%
CPSEETF -1.10%
GOLDBEES -1.99%
Hopefully, gold will put in a couple of years of negative returns and Indian savers will finally get over it…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-2-6.2015-2-13

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.13 +0.11%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.22 -0.05%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.12 -0.22%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.05 -0.30%
Too much supply? Budget jitters? Plain-old reversion to mean?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Successful enterprises have a cycle of life. Startups build a product or service, enter the market and attract customers. Once they’re over these initial hurdles, they enter a growth phase, rapidly increasing their revenue and market share with big gains year-over-year. They continue to work on their product, fine-tuning it as revenue starts to flatten and margins stabilize at lower but still attractive levels.

As these companies mature, growth slows even more, eventually flattening out — yet operational expenses continue to climb as they strive to compete with new players in the market. Finally, unable to keep up, burdened with bloated budgets, companies spiral into negative growth, marked by layoffs, high burn rates and eventual bankruptcy or liquidation.

Source: The Arc of Company Life

Weekly Recap: The Ultimate Equalizer

world.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.42%
CAC(FRA) +1.88%
UKX(GBR) +1.54%
NKY(JPN) -0.15%
SPX(USA) +2.50%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.00%
INMEX(MEX) +4.34%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.43%
XU030(TUR) -4.83%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) -4.19%
NIFTY(IND) -1.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) +6.54%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.40%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +10.69%
Natural Gas -3.56%
Heating Oil +8.80%
Ethanol +3.84%
RBOB Gasoline +9.52%
WTI Crude Oil +9.96%
Metals
Copper +3.17%
Gold 100oz -3.40%
Platinum -1.20%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Palladium +1.49%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.18% USDJPY:+1.44%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.40%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.98%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.87%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.19%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.61%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.10%
USDINR(IND) -0.27%
USDRUB(RUS) -4.59%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.34%
Agricultural
Cotton +3.32%
Feeder Cattle -5.77%
Lean Hogs -5.17%
Cocoa +2.84%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.78%
Orange Juice -2.21%
Soybean Meal -0.30%
Sugar #11 -1.56%
White Sugar -0.23%
Coffee (Arabica) +2.84%
Corn +4.05%
Lumber -1.77%
Soybeans +1.33%
Wheat +4.92%
Cattle +0.87%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.23%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.20%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.16%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.37%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.91%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.10%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -7.98%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.66%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.02%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.05%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.79%
Looks like the dollar rally stalled out and the energy complex got a huge boost. US and European markets ended in the green. Credit narrowed as well.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.85% 69/63
2 -0.11% 62/70
3 +0.28% 68/64
4 -0.64% 66/65
5 -0.72% 68/64
6 -0.69% 67/65
7 -1.03% 55/76
8 -0.74% 67/65
9 -2.18% 64/68
10 (mega) -2.59% 64/68
The market sank as a whole…

Top Winners and Losers

HCLTECH +9.09%
CAIRN +9.13%
UPL +16.29%
CROMPGREAV -16.12%
ADANIPORTS -11.98%
HINDPETRO -11.30%
Oil prices staged a smart bounce back: CAIRN #winning, HPCL #loser.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES -0.17%
GOLDBEES -1.12%
CPSEETF -1.44%
NIFTYBEES -1.66%
JUNIORBEES -1.86%
BANKBEES -5.38%
PSUBNKBEES -9.61%
Bank results were a splash of cold water on a market driven by hopium. Will the budget rescue?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.02 +0.15%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.07 +0.14%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.11 +0.36%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.11 +0.79%
Nothing to do but to clip that coupon and hit the links…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

One of the hardest parts about investing is that no matter what it is that you buy there will almost certainly be another investor, asset class, sector, fund or security that will be outperforming you at any given point in time. Behavior is the ultimate equalizer in the markets. Most investors will always prefer to invest based on a narratives over evidence.

Source: @awealthofcs

Multinationals Listed in India

Multinational companies (MNCs) listed in India, like Bosch, Colgate, etc, are generally considered to be well managed, cash-rich businesses. Lets take a look at their past performance and some actively managed funds that focus on them. It may be worth your while to add some MNC goodness to your portfolio.

MNCs vs. Top 100

Our first stop is first check if MNCs indeed outperform the market. For this, lets compare the CNX MNC index to the CNX 100 index.

Between 2005-01-03 and 2015-02-02, CNX MNC has returned a cumulative 453.68% with an IRR of 18.49% vs. CNX 100’s cumulative return of 318.85% and an IRR of 15.26%. (permalink) Apart from a brief period of under-performance between 2007 and 2008, MNCs have generally done better than the rest of the market.

MNCs vs. Midcaps

Between 2010-01-04 and 2015-02-02, CNX MNC has returned a cumulative 108.14% with an IRR of 15.31% vs. BSE MID CAP’s cumulative return of 58.41% and an IRR of 9.47%. (permalink) #winning

MNC funds

There are a couple of funds, one from UTI and the other from Birla Sun Life that focus purely on MNCs. Here’s how the UTI fund has performed:

Between 2006-04-03 and 2015-02-02, UTI – MNC Fund has returned a cumulative 283.13% with an IRR of 16.41% vs. CNX MNC’s cumulative return of 182.80% and an IRR of 12.10%. (permalink)

Between the two of them, UTI’s fund’s IRR of 37.12% is eclipsed by BSL’s 41.52% between 2013-01-02 and 2015-02-02 (a shorter time-period of comparison.) (permalink)

But irrespective of which fund you choose, the excess returns cannot be ignored. And of course, past-performance is not indicative of the future.