Author: shyam

Broker’s Call: Lucky 16 for 100%

DOOD…

MoneyControl combined the calls of different brokers who recommended them for 100% returns in a slideshow.

… YA PAANI?

We have created a Theme containing an equally weighted portfolio of stocks contained in this report: Lucky 13: Brokerages betting on these stocks for 100% returns

You can now follow the Theme, keep track of its performance, risk metrics etc. and answer the question yourself: Dood, ya Paani?

Monthly Recap: You and Your Research

world equity markets 2014-05-30.2014-06-30

The Nifty ended the month a whopping +5.28% (+3.42% in USD terms)

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.11%
CAC(FRA) -2.14%
UKX(GBR) -1.47%
NKY(JPN) +4.80%
SPX(USA) +2.06%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.54%
INMEX(MEX) +2.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.43%
XU030(TUR) -1.07%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.32%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.28%
NIFTY(IND) +5.55%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.85%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.98%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +2.92%
Ethanol -10.38%
Heating Oil +3.42%
Natural Gas -2.66%
RBOB Gasoline +1.63%
WTI Crude Oil +2.98%
Metals
Copper +1.59%
Gold 100oz +6.58%
Palladium +1.06%
Platinum +2.49%
Silver 5000oz +12.83%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.34% USDJPY:-0.29%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.21%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.95%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.16%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.31%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.71%
USDINR(IND) +1.79%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.62%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.49%
Agricultural
Cattle +11.07%
Cocoa +1.54%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.68%
Coffee (Robusta) +6.90%
Corn -9.97%
Cotton -7.64%
Feeder Cattle +9.12%
Lean Hogs +16.89%
Lumber +8.05%
Orange Juice -11.85%
Soybean Meal -8.93%
Soybeans -6.41%
Sugar #11 -4.26%
Wheat -10.15%
White Sugar +0.40%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-05-30.2014-06-30

Index performance

indexperformance.2014-05-30.2014-06-30

Top winners and losers

GAIL +22.56%
RELCAPITAL +24.02%
BHARATFORG +24.79%
MCDOWELL-N -14.98%
UBL -7.46%
M&M -7.15%
A pretty board-based rally…

ETFs

BANKBEES +9.16%
JUNIORBEES +6.06%
NIFTYBEES +5.65%
PSUBNKBEES +5.25%
INFRABEES +4.93%
GOLDBEES +4.60%
No ETF left behind!

Investment Theme Performance

All strategies ended in the green this month.

Sector Performance

sectorperformance.2014-05-30.2014-06-30

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-05-30.2014-06-30

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2014-06-30

Thought to Sum up the Month

“Knowledge and productivity are like compound interest.” Given two people of approximately the same ability and one person who works ten percent more than the other, the latter will more than twice outproduce the former. The more you know, the more you learn; the more you learn, the more you can do; the more you can do, the more the opportunity – it is very much like compound interest.

Source: You and Your Research, by Richard Hamming

Broker’s Call: Top 10 Agri Stocks

Dood…

Microsec Capital identified 10 agricultural companies which, they believe, will outperform in the medium-to-long term. (ET)

… Ya Paani?

We have created a Theme containing an equally weighted portfolio of stocks contained in this report: Microsec’s Top 10 Agri Stocks

You can now follow the Theme, keep track of its performance, risk metrics etc. and answer the question yourself: Dood, ya Paani?

Weekly Recap: Single-Variable Analysis

Equities

world.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

The Nifty ended flat for the week.

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.72%
CAC(FRA) -2.30%
UKX(GBR) -0.99%
NKY(JPN) -1.66%
SPX(USA) -0.07%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.05%
INMEX(MEX) -1.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.57%
XU030(TUR) -0.10%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.82%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.49%
NIFTY(IND) -0.04%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.60%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.48%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.19%
Ethanol +1.34%
Heating Oil -1.65%
Natural Gas -2.05%
RBOB Gasoline -0.79%
WTI Crude Oil -1.44%
Metals
Copper +0.96%
Gold 100oz +0.05%
Palladium +2.27%
Platinum +1.59%
Silver 5000oz -0.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.42% USDJPY:-0.71%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.18%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.23%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.09%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.82%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.78%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.12%
USDINR(IND) -0.17%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.16%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.88%
Agricultural
Cattle +3.71%
Cocoa +1.17%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.76%
Corn -1.94%
Cotton -8.32%
Feeder Cattle +3.80%
Lean Hogs +2.27%
Lumber +3.05%
Orange Juice -9.38%
Soybean Meal +3.00%
Soybeans +1.71%
Sugar #11 -5.08%
Wheat -0.21%
White Sugar -2.30%

Nifty heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Index returns

indexperformance.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Top winners and losers

FEDERALBNK +6.45%
DIVISLAB +8.55%
BOSCHLTD +9.92%
MCDOWELL-N -7.08%
KOTAKBANK -6.96%
IDEA -6.01%
A mixed bag, but Bosch was on fire this week!

ETFs

BANKBEES +2.90%
JUNIORBEES +1.34%
PSUBNKBEES +0.04%
NIFTYBEES -0.18%
GOLDBEES -0.33%
INFRABEES -4.78%
Banks got back on the saddle…

Investment Theme Performance

Sector Performance

sectorperformance.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Thought for the Weekend

The behavior of markets or economies simply can’t be explained by looking at just one thing. conomies and markets are extremely complex. They have a variety of different inputs, including earnings, interest rates, psychology, economic activity, fund flows, taxes, sentiment, momentum, geopolitics, etc. The relevant significance of all of these inputs varies over time.

Source: When Correlations Lie

Related: Musings on stock-market forecasts

Covered Call Strategy Cheat Sheet

Paper from the brain-trust at AQR Capital Management: Covered Calls and Their Unintended Reversal Bet is a must read for anybody trading options.

Simply put, a covered call is when you own the underlying stock and you sell a call on it. If the stock doesn’t go beyond the strike at which you sold the call, then you pocket the premium. Otherwise, your upside on owning the stock is capped at the strike.

The payoff diagram of a covered call looks like this:

covered call payoff

The authors claim that over a quarter of a covered call’s risk may be attributed to market timing and investors are ignoring its effect on returns.

Because a covered call option strategy reflects an underlying position in equity (delta = 1) and being short a call with changing delta, we get the following situation:

  1. Baseline situation: equity delta = 1.0 and short call position delta = -0.5; net 0.5 delta
  2. In a falling market environment: equity delta = 1.0 and short call position delta = -0.25; net 0.75 delta, or higher market exposure
  3. In a rising market environment: equity delta = 1.0 and short call position delta = -0.75; net 0.25 delta, or lower market exposure

The insight: a covered call strategy embeds elements of a reversal strategy, not a trend-following strategy.

The cheat sheet

  1. Bearish on volatility? Don’t do a covered call.
  2. Bearish on the market? Don’t do a covered call.
  3. Like trend-following? Don’t do a covered call.

Sources

  • Covered Calls and Their Unintended Reversal Bet (pdf)
  • Own the Stock and Sell Calls: Guaranteed Win, Right? (AlphaArchitect)