Weekly Recap: Uncertainty and Overconfidence

world.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

The Nifty clocked in a respectable +2.74% (+2.49% in USD) this week.

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.56%
CAC(FRA) +0.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.89%
NKY(JPN) +0.34%
SPX(USA) +0.62%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.08%
INMEX(MEX) +1.44%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.14%
XU030(TUR) +3.93%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.09%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.59%
NIFTY(IND) +2.74%
INDEXCF(RUS) -5.22%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.06%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.87%
Ethanol -0.71%
Heating Oil -0.30%
Natural Gas -4.92%
RBOB Gasoline -1.61%
WTI Crude Oil +2.33%
Metals
Copper -2.45%
Gold 100oz -1.96%
Palladium +1.08%
Platinum -1.42%
Silver 5000oz -2.80%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.63% USDJPY:+0.00%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.23%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.30%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.31%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.26%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.17%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.07%
USDINR(IND) +0.58%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.66%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.60%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.49%
Cocoa -1.48%
Coffee (Arabica) +4.53%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.10%
Corn -7.04%
Cotton -0.51%
Feeder Cattle +0.28%
Lean Hogs -4.17%
Lumber -3.06%
Orange Juice +5.38%
Soybean Meal -9.79%
Soybeans -9.11%
Sugar #11 -0.41%
Wheat +2.75%
White Sugar +0.33%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Index Returns

index performance.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

MARKET CAP DECILE PERFORMANCE

Decile Mkt. Cap. Advance/Decline
1 (micro-cap) -4.54% 65/72
2 +1.60% 72/64
3 +4.22% 76/60
4 +5.02% 77/59
5 +4.53% 84/52
6 +6.16% 76/61
7 +5.84% 81/55
8 +5.23% 86/50
9 +4.39% 74/62
10 (mega-cap) +3.21% 68/69
Midcaps recovered somewhat from last week’s shellacking but micro-caps continued to bleed.

Top winners and losers

MPHASIS +12.85%
ADANIPORTS +15.92%
CROMPGREAV +22.63%
RECLTD -4.71%
HINDUNILVR -3.01%
BAJAJ-AUTO -2.47%
A mixed bag…

ETFs

BANKBEES +5.64%
JUNIORBEES +4.95%
PSUBNKBEES +4.68%
INFRABEES +3.50%
NIFTYBEES +2.82%
GOLDBEES -1.12%
Gold, once again, out of favor.

Investment Theme Performance

Back from the precipice. Quantitative value themes out performed…

Yield Curve

A flat yield curve does not a bank profit make.

yield Curve.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Thought for the weekend

Experts have a poor understanding of uncertainty. Usually, this manifests itself in the form of overconfidence: experts underestimate the likelihood that their predictions might be wrong.

Source: Herman Cain and the Hubris of Experts

Related: Why Do Models Beat Experts?

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