Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: The Darwin Economy

world.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.53%
CAC(FRA) +0.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.45%
NKY(JPN) +2.34%
SPX(USA) +1.26%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.63%
INMEX(MEX) +0.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.93%
XU030(TUR) -1.10%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.90%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.11%
NIFTY(IND) +0.20%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.85%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.65%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.06%
Ethanol -9.04%
Heating Oil -1.02%
Natural Gas +0.03%
RBOB Gasoline +3.15%
WTI Crude Oil +0.06%
Metals
Copper -0.32%
Gold 100oz -0.71%
Palladium -2.65%
Platinum -2.27%
Silver 5000oz -4.30%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.92% USDJPY:+1.59%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.25%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.29%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.20%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.01%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.09%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) +0.28%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.79%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.69%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.59%
Cocoa +2.78%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.17%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.17%
Corn -0.38%
Cotton -7.18%
Feeder Cattle +0.40%
Lean Hogs +0.09%
Lumber -5.73%
Orange Juice -2.53%
Soybean Meal -25.03%
Soybeans -12.21%
Sugar #11 -2.24%
Wheat -4.43%
White Sugar +4.07%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.28%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.08%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.35%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +0.88%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +2.32%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.32%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -0.36%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.21%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.68%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.00%
The Dollar rallied across the board and precious metals took it on the chin. Bad news about the economy is good news for Japanese markets – BOJ will continue to hoover up any and all assets as it fights deflation and tries to kick start a moribund economy. The Scotland “No” vote prevented a disintegration of the British Pound and their banking system. Alibaba popped at its debut in NYSE to a market value of $230 billion on a fully diluted basis.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Index Returns

index performance.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.51% 74/71
2 -2.23% 72/72
3 -1.08% 67/77
4 -0.32% 69/75
5 -1.86% 67/77
6 -1.24% 70/75
7 +0.60% 70/74
8 -0.34% 76/68
9 -0.32% 74/70
10 (mega) -0.16% 67/78
One wonders how the NIFTY ended in the green this week…

Top Winners and Losers

DRREDDY +8.93%
ZEEL +10.47%
INFRATEL +10.91%
JINDALSTEL -10.82%
YESBANK -7.99%
PFC -7.16%
Infratel: the volatility in the stock is enough to give you ulcers. Yes Bank collapsed on hitting its FDI cap. It will be a good buy soon…

ETFs

NIFTYBEES +0.30%
INFRABEES +0.27%
JUNIORBEES -0.80%
GOLDBEES -0.82%
BANKBEES -0.88%
CPSEETF -3.84%
PSUBNKBEES -3.92%
PSU banks will be hitting the market soon with fund raising plans… we should all do our duty as tax-paying Indian citizens and avoid them.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.36 +0.06%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.31 -0.28%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 -0.01%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.06 +0.78%
The long end of the curve is getting bid up on rate-cut expectations next year…

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Theme Performance

IT stocks got bid up this week, probably because of the Dollar rally. The rest of them were mixed bags.

Thought for the weekend

The real challenge to Adam Smith’s invisible hand is rooted in the very logic of the competitive process itself.

Charles Darwin was one of the first to perceive the underlying problem clearly. One of his central insights was that natural selection favors traits and behaviors primarily according to their effect on individual organisms, not larger groups. Sometimes individual and group interests coincide and in such cases we often get invisible hand-like results.

In other cases, however, mutations that help the individual prove quite harmful to the larger group. This is in fact the expected result for mutations that confer advantage in head-to-head competition among members of the same species. This conflict pervades human interactions when individual rewards depend on relative performance.

Source: The Darwin Economy – Why Smith’s Invisible Hand Breaks Down

Institutional Investing Trends

A quick update to our II Trend report from last month.

Foreign Institutional Investors keep the faith

FII invested $1742.07 million in debt vs $1221.89 million in equities so far in Septmeber.

fii-investments.2012-01-01.2014-09-15

fii-investments-equities.2012-1-1.2014-09-15

Domestic Institutionals were obsessed with debt

In September, DIIs invested Rs 20,379.6 cr in debt vs. -310.5 cr in equity.

dii-investments.2012-01-01.2014-09-15

dii-investments-equity.2012-1-1.2014-09-15

dii-investments-debt.2012-1-1.2014-09-15

A trade for everyone

Not sure what I like better – debt or equity. Debt investors will benefit from the falling interest rate environment in AAA paper and shrinking defaults in sub-primes. Equity investors will benefit from improving balance-sheets and an improving demand-side equation. Stay tuned…

Keynes’ key to successful investing: He abandoned forecasting

Read an interesting article in the FT by Tim Harford about forecasting. Was hit by a couple of “aha moments”.

First:

Keynes’s track record over a quarter century running the discretionary portfolio of King’s College Cambridge was excellent, outperforming market benchmarks by an average of six percentage points a year, an impressive margin.

The secret to Keynes’s profits is that he abandoned macroeconomic forecasting entirely. Instead, he sought out well-managed companies with strong dividend yields, and held on to them for the long term. Keynes, the most influential macroeconomist in history, realized not only that such forecasts were beyond his skill but that they were unnecessary.

And here’s the other gem:

Most forecasters aren’t actually seriously and single-mindedly trying to see into the future. If they were, they’d keep score and try to improve their predictions based on past errors. They don’t.

This is because their predictions are about the future only in the most superficial way. They are really advertisements, conversation pieces, declarations of tribal loyalty…

Read the whole thing: How to see into the future

Weekly Recap: Sentiment Surveys are Pointless

world.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.98%
CAC(FRA) -1.00%
UKX(GBR) -0.70%
NKY(JPN) +1.78%
SPX(USA) -0.95%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.41%
INMEX(MEX) -0.80%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.18%
XU030(TUR) -5.87%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.00%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.24%
NIFTY(IND) +0.23%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.01%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.13%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -3.51%
Ethanol -9.71%
Heating Oil -2.48%
Natural Gas +1.21%
RBOB Gasoline -2.27%
WTI Crude Oil -1.06%
Metals
Copper -1.90%
Gold 100oz -3.04%
Palladium -5.69%
Platinum -2.89%
Silver 5000oz -2.62%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.03% USDJPY:+2.20%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.54%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.54%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.29%
USDTRY(TUR) +2.98%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.28%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.10%
USDINR(IND) +0.42%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.91%
USDZAR(ZAF) +3.06%
Agricultural
Cattle -2.17%
Cocoa +2.55%
Coffee (Arabica) -9.16%
Coffee (Robusta) -4.17%
Corn -4.10%
Cotton +8.16%
Feeder Cattle +1.57%
Lean Hogs +0.14%
Lumber +1.34%
Orange Juice -2.86%
Soybean Meal -1.17%
Soybeans +0.55%
Sugar #11 -8.18%
Wheat -6.71%
White Sugar -5.41%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.87%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.45%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.45%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +5.31%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.61%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.98%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +18.20%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.67%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.04%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.50%
It was a week when most markets went down but Indian mid-caps rallied like a cat with its tail on fire. Commodities: down, MINT markets: down, USD: up, credit: wide. Indian mid-caps: +3% to +10%.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Index Returns

index performance.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +11.06% 81/60
2 +12.97% 91/49
3 +11.06% 90/50
4 +7.52% 80/61
5 +10.47% 87/53
6 +6.29% 84/56
7 +5.64% 83/58
8 +4.40% 78/62
9 +3.14% 74/66
10 (mega) +0.79% 70/71
The action was in the lower end of the market-cap spectrum. The action in CNX 100/NIFTY was nothing compared to what happened in small/midcap stocks.

Top winners and losers

OFSS +9.72%
CIPLA +9.91%
ABIRLANUVO +12.84%
RANBAXY -6.74%
SUNPHARMA -6.03%
SAIL -5.75%
Sunpharma got dinged with an US-FDA inspection. No idea what happened to OFSS…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +8.22%
BANKBEES +1.94%
JUNIORBEES +1.31%
NIFTYBEES +0.21%
INFRABEES +0.18%
CPSEETF -0.43%
GOLDBEES -1.10%
Gold continued its tumble. Banks seem to have caught a bid…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.40 +0.27%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.24 +0.81%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.17 +1.08%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.10 +0.88%
3-8 year part of the curve saw some action. But the last couple of weeks in the bond markets was as exciting as watching paint dry…

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Theme Performance

Midcap value stocks shot ahead of the rest of the markets. We have three user contributed themes that are listed under ‘User Contributed Themes’ here.

Thought for the weekend

Sentiment data is inconclusive and sometimes contradictory. There is no signal within the noisy data. Besides, no one has the ability to consistently forecast any of the inevitable market corrections. Its probably best to ignore the short-term action and concentrate on being on the right side of the long-term trend.

Source: Buying Stocks Based on How Other People Feel