Author: Abhishek

Analysis: PRESTIGE

Today’s pick is PRESTIGE [stockquote]PRESTIGE[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend for most part of the year. It moved in a very tight range of Rs. 100 and Rs. 120 for 5 months through April to August to break out with a bullish move. Since then the stock has been moving on an uptrend and saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 195 couple of weeks ago. In the last three months, the stock has moved +10% vs. +2% of the Nifty’s.

PRESTIGE technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not giving any short-term directional bias. Short-term technicals saw a 4×9 bullish cross-over accompanied with a Dragonfly bullish doji.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other without giving any directional bias. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen expanding giving out an extremely bullish signal for the stock.

PRESTIGE correlation chart

PRESTIGE’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.08 which is negative. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

PRESTIGE volatility chart

PRESTIGE has a historical volatility in the range of 0.6 to 1.4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term also we suggest a buy with a keen eye around Rs. 195 levels, which might act as resistance for the stock in the short-term. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: PETRONET

Today’s pick is PETRONET [stockquote]PETRONET[/stockquote]. The stock saw a double top in the starting of the year around Rs 175 levels, and slipped down to find support at Rs. 125 levels by June. It then started moving up and found resistance again around the same levels, and is currently withdrawing back. In the last three months, the stock has moved -1% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

PETRONET technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading at the top of Bollinger band giving a short-term bearish bias. Short-term technicals saw a 4×9 and 4×18 bullish cross-over accompanied with a Dragonfly bullish doji.

The MACD line has penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner a couple of days ago. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen inverted in a bearish manner given the downward movement of the stock.

PETRONET correlation chart

PETRONET’s average correlation with the Nifty is +0.49 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

PETRONET volatility chart

PETRONET has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.9. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term we suggest to take a call based upon the expansion of the long-term GMMA lines and stocks behavior around its resistance levels. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Live Portfolio trades for Feb/20

Till now you all have seen how the portfolio was getting rejigged because of trailing stop-losses being hit for the losers. But today I sold FKONCO [stockquote]FKONCO[/stockquote] at a profit of around 11% over a 3 trading days time .

I used the same proceeds to get long in GEOMETRIC [stockquote]GEOMETRIC[/stockquote]. Although, given the technicals I would have entered the trade at the start of the day itself, but due to no cash, had to wait to take any position. The MACD crossover happening and the stock bouncing back of its 3 months support line, it provided a good opportunity for a trade.

GEOMETRIC Technical Analysis Chart

The portfolio currently looks like this.

Untitled

Lets hope for the best.

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Analysis: COLPAL

Today’s pick is COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend for most part of the year. The stock experienced its 52 week high of Rs. 1,580 in December but since then the stock has been moving downwards retracing the gains. In the last three months, the stock has moved +2% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

COLPAL technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are close to the over-sold territory. The stock is trading in the middle of a narrowing Bollinger band giving no directional bias.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen inverted in a bearish manner given the downward movement of the stock.

COLPAL correlation chart

COLPAL’s average correlation with the Nifty is +0.26 which is positive but weak. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

COLPAL volatility chart

COLPAL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range and hence not a concern for the traders.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term we suggest to take a call based upon the expansion of the long-term GMMA lines. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Live Portfolio trades for Feb/19

When stocks behave oddly than they should have over a 5 days time, its better to get rid of them even though they are making loss. This strategy doesn’t hold good for long only investor, because they don’t have to actively manage their portfolio.

Hence, UCOBANK [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote] that was stuck in the portfolio since long needed a push out. The stock in the holding period made a –5% return. Although, selling this stock provided us opportunity to hold another stock where the technicals are supporting a buy.

The RSI and CMO levels are confirming an up-move, which is being pushed further ahead by the bullish penetration of the signal line by the MACD line.

NTPC Technical analysis chart

Hopefully, the technicals will prove themselves again as they did for FKONCO, which is up 11% since I included in the portfolio this Friday.

The portfolio currently looks as follows.

Untitled

Cheers!

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