Author: Abhishek

Live Portfolio: trades for Feb/7

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When markets don’t help you, you need to help yourself. In the last three days, the technical trades were not able to do a very good job. And I also learned that having 3 stocks in portfolio, still is concentrated. Hence I tapped on the opportunity created today in the markets, to expand the portfolio into a couple of more stocks with bullish technicals.

I cut back my holdings on UCOBANK [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote]to half, and CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote] to three quarters to take new positions in SAIL [stockquote]SAIL[/stockquote] and PETRONET[stockquote]PETRONET[/stockquote]. Here is why..

It is clearly visible for SAIL that the oscillators are nearing the over-sold levels, and hence an opportunity is being created for the stock to start its up-move. The stagnating MACD lines are in confirmation as well.

SAIL technical Analysis Chart

Again, for PETRONET, the oscillators are much below their historical reversal levels, suggesting of an up move possibility.

PETRONET technical analysis chart

Although, partial closing of positions did take the poheatmaprtfolio a bit down, but I am sure that in the longer turn of events putting eggs in different baskets is going to help.

Here’s how the performance and portfolio looks like currently.

Portfoliotrades

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cheers!!

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Analysis: IDEA

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Today’s next pick is IDEA [stockquote]IDEA[/stockquote]. The stock saw a range bound movement till April. After a downward break out of the range, the stock moved to Rs. 75 levels to find support till September. Since then the stock is in an uptrend, and it saw a 52 week high of Rs. 123 in mid-January. In the last three months, the stock has moved +20% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.

IDEA technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no-man’s land. The stock is trading close to the lower end of Bollinger band giving an upward bias.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving parallel to each other and suggest the short –term downtrend to continue. Although, Long-term GMMA lines are well spread out, and hence are giving a bullish sign for the long-term.

IDEA correlation chart

IDEA’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.41 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

IDEA volatility chart

IDEA has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we suggest a buy. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

Read what experts have to say about the Indian telecom sector here.

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Analysis: BHARTIARTL

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Today’s pick is BHARTIARTL [stockquote]BHARTIARTL[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a down-trend, that lasted until September, where it got support at Rs. 250 levels. Since then it has been on an uptrend and it saw a 52 week high of Rs. 370 in mid-January. In the last three months, the stock has moved +20% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.

BHARTIARTL technical analyis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory. The stock is trading close to the lower end of Bollinger band giving an upward bias. Short-term technical just saw a 18×9 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving away from each other and suggest the short –term downtrend to continue. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other not giving any long-term direction to the stock.

BHARTIARTL correlation chart

BHARTIARTL’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

BHARTIARTL volatility chart

BHARTIARTL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we will have to wait and watch how the GMMA lines unravel themselves and a bullish call can be made if it holds the current trendline. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

Read what experts have to say about the Indian telecom sector here.

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Analysis: NTPC

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Today’s pick is NTPC [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a surge to Rs. 190 levels, and soon lost its mojo to drop down to Rs. 140 levels by mid of May. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend with some correction on the way. In the last three months, the stock has moved -9% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.

NTPC technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are hovering in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not giving any directional bias. Short-term technical just saw a 18×9 bearish crossover.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other unable to provide any direction for the stock. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other not giving any direction to the stock.

NTPC correlation chart

NTPC’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.57 which is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

NTPC volatility chart

NTPC has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell. For the long-term, we will have to wait and watch how the GMMA lines unravel themselves. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

The government is selling its 9.5% stake (78.3 Cr shares) at a floor price of Rs. 145 per stock, a discount of Rs. 10 per share. The stock is currently trading at a PE of 13.05, a price of Rs. 145 will bring it down to 12.17, lesser than comparables. With the US power industry rotating from coal to domestic natural gas, we expect the international price of coal, the main input cost for NTPC, come down over a period of time. We give the government’s OFS a BUY at this price.

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Analysis: SUNTV

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Today’s pick is SUNTV [stockquote]SUNTV[/stockquote]. The stock started the year in a range bound movement, but broke down of the range in March, slipping to Rs 225 levels by June. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend and saw its 52-week high just yesterday. In the last three months, the stock has moved +44% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

SUNTV technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are hovering in the over-bought territory. The stock is trading in the top end of Bollinger band giving out an extremely bearish direction.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving away from each other, suggesting a continuation of the medium term up-trend, confirmed by rising histogram levels. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very distant from each other, giving out a bullish sign for the scrip.

SUNTV correlation chart

SUNTV’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.53 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SUNTV volatility chart

SUNTV has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell for correction. But for the long-term, we see the stock to be sticking to its long-term up-trend and hence is a Buy. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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