Author: Abhishek

Call Reviews – Part V

Here is the 5th post of the Call Reviews series, where we come forward and discuss the performance of our calls made as a part of daily analysis posts that we have been posting over the last 6 months. We are looking at five calls in each post. Remember again we are only looking at the short-term calls.

For Tata Global Ltd. [stockquote]TATAGLOBAL[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. Its 5 day performance was 2.55%.

For Siemens Ltd. [stockquote]SIEMENS[/stockquote] in the next post we asked to buy. The stock had moved 0.4% next 5 days. During the same period NIFTY was up 2.7%.

For Idea Ltd. [stockquote]IDEA[/stockquote], in the following week’s post we gave a sell call. The stock was up 6.8% in the next 5 days.

In the next post, we picked Maruti Ltd. [stockquote]MARUTI[/stockquote] and gave a buy call. The stock moved -1.3% over the next 5 days.

Our last pick of the day, for Infosys Ltd. [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. The stock moved +0.9% over the next 5 days period.

This gives our cumulative calls an accuracy level of 56%.

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Analysis: INFY

Today’s pick is INFY [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]. The stock has been very volatile for most part of the last year. It started the year with a range bound movement between Rs.2,800 and Rs.2,900 and saw a bearish breakdown in April. The stock then fell to Rs. 2,200 levels. After spending 8 months between Rs. 2,200 and Rs. 2,600 the stock broke past the channel in January, to move towards its 52 weeks high of Rs. 3,000 levels. In the last three months, the stock moved +25% vs. a flat Nifty.

INFY Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently in no-man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a 18X9 and 9X4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line has bearishly penetrated the signal line, and the histogram levels are dropping to confirm the bearish move. However, the Long-term GMMA lines have been expanding as opposed to the contracting short-term lines. This is adding to the in-decisiveness about the direction of stock move.

INFY Correlation chart

INFY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.50, which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

INFY Volatility chart

INFY has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

INFY Analysts Coverage

Analysts have a bullish outlook for the stock, the next set of earnings might make a difference in the stocks outlook.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A long-term hold is also suggested if the stock holds above Rs. 2,600. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2013-03-11.2013-03-15

The NIFTY ended on a bearish note, melting down -2.44% for the week.
Biggest losers were BAJAJ-AUTO (-8.10%), ICICIBANK (-6.30%) and HINDALCO (-5.63%).
And the biggest winners were RANBAXY (+8.86%), SIEMENS (+7.69%) and ASIANPAINT (+7.30%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 34 vs 16fii.2013-03-11.2013-03-15
Gold: +0.46%, Banks: -2.89%. Infrastructure: -2.32%,
Net FII flows for the week: $636.37 mm (Equity) and $203.94 mm (Debt)

 

 

 

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Call Reviews – Part IV

Here is the 4th part of the Call Reviews, where we come forward and discuss the performance of our calls made as a part of daily analysis posts that we have been posting over the last 6 months. We are looking at five calls in each post. Remember again we are only looking at the short-term calls.

For Pantaloon Retail Ltd. [stockquote]PANTALOONR[/stockquote] in this post we gave a buy call. Its 5 day performance was -7%.

For HDFC Bank Ltd. [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote] in the next post we asked to buy. The stock had moved -0.7% next 5 days.

For Pfizer Ltd. [stockquote]PFIZER[/stockquote], in the following week’s post we gave a buy call. The stock was flat in the next 5 days.

In the next post, we picked Jindal Steel Ltd. [stockquote]JINDALSTEL[/stockquote] and gave a buy call. The stock moved +1.2% over the next 5 days.

Our last pick of the day, for ICICI Bank Ltd. [stockquote]ICICIBANK[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. The stock moved -0.4% over the next 5 days period.

This gives our cumulative calls an accuracy level of 65%.

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Call Reviews – Part III

Here is the 3rd part of the Call Reviews, where we come forward and discuss the performance of our calls made as a part of daily analysis posts that we have been posting over the last 6 months. We are looking at five calls in each post. Remember again we are only looking at the short-term calls.

For Wipro Ltd. [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote] in this post we gave a buy call. Its 5 day performance was +1.7%.

For Dr. Reddy Laboratories Ltd. [stockquote]DRREDDY[/stockquote] in the next post we asked to hold. The stock was moved -1.2% next 5 days.

For Karnataka Bank [stockquote]KTKBANK[/stockquote], in the following week’s post we gave a hold call. The stock had moved +2.45% in the next 5 days.

In the next post, we picked ONGC Ltd. [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote] and gave a sell call. The stock moved -5% over the next 5 days.

Our last pick of the day, for Larsen and Toubro Ltd. [stockquote]LT[/stockquote] in this post we gave a hold call. The stock moved -1.9% over the next 5 days period.

This gives our cumulative calls an accuracy level of 66.7%.

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