Author: Abhishek

Analysis: SHOPERSTOP

Today’s pick is SHOPERSTOP [stockquote]SHOPERSTOP[/stockquote]. The stock initially rushed to Rs. 400 points, but after facing resistance there it dropped to the Rs. 300 levels. After a couple of weeks support on this level, the stock started its up-move in June to see its 52 week’s high of Rs. 495 in December. Since then the stock has been on a downtrend. In the last three months, the stock moved -16% vs. -4% of Nifty’s.

SHOPERSTOP Technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are reaching the over-sold territory. The stock is currently trading in the lower range of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical saw a bearish Gravestone Doji.

The MACD line and signal line are very close to each other and are not suggesting any direction. But the inversion in the histogram levels is giving early sign of an upcoming bullish move. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are too close to give out any directional bias.

SHOPERSTOP correlation chart

SHOPERSTOP’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.44, which is positive. The scrip will be closely replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SHOPERSTOP volatility chart

SHOPERSTOP has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.5 to 1.1. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional move of the GMMA lines and price action near the support levels of Rs. 360. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

For a better picture of the Retail sector as a whole, you can look at what the expert has to say here.

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Analysis: PANTALOONR

Today’s pick is PANTALOONR [stockquote]PANTALOONR[/stockquote]. The stock was trading in between Rs. 150 – Rs. 200 for most part of the year. It saw a bullish breakout of the range in November. The stock saw its 52 week’s high of Rs. 276 in January, and since then it is on a downtrend. In the last three months, the stock moved -32% vs. -4% of Nifty’s.

PANTALOONR Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in the over-sold territory. The stock is currently trading in the lower range of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical saw a 9X4 bearish cross-over a few days ago.

The MACD line and signal line are very close to each other and are not suggesting any direction. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are inverted in a bearish move.

PANTALOONR Correlation chart

PANTALOONR’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.60, which is positive and strong. The scrip will be closely replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

PANTALOONR Volatility chart

PANTALOONR has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.6 to 1.6. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional move of the GMMA lines and price action near the support levels. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

For a better picture of the Retail sector as a whole, you can look at what the expert has to say here.

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Analysis: INDIAINFO

Today’s pick is INDIAINFO [stockquote]INDIAINFO[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a rush towards Rs. 80 levels, after finding resistance around the levels, it started its descent to find support around Rs. 45 levels in May. Since then, the stock had been on an uptrend reaching its 52 week’s high of Rs. 92 in the month of December. However post December it is in a correction mode. In the last three months, the stock moved -27% vs. -2% of Nifty’s.

INDIAINFO technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are closing in towards the over-sold territory. The stock is currently trading in the lower range of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical saw a 9X4 bearish cross-over a few days ago.

The MACD line has bearishly penetrated the signal line and the drop in the histogram level suggests a short-term bearish move. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are inverted in a bearish move.

INDIAINFO Correlation chart

INDIAINFO’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.65, which is positive and strong. The scrip will be closely replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

INDIAINFO volatility chart

INDIAINFO has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.6 to 1.4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional move of the GMMA lines.

For a better picture of the NBFC sector as a whole, you can look at what the experts have to say here and here.

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Analysis: LUPIN

Today’s pick is LUPIN [stockquote]LUPIN[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend since the start of the year. It reached its 52 week’s high of Rs. 622 in the month of September. It is currently under long term pennant formation. In the last three months, the stock moved +2% vs. a flat Nifty.

LUPIN Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently in no-man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the upper range of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a 9X18 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line has bullishly penetrated the signal line after very long. However, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are moving very close to each other without giving any directional bias to the stock.

LUPIN Correlation chart

LUPIN’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.29, which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

LUPIN Volatility chart

LUPIN has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional break-out of the pennant. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

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Call Reviews – Part VI

Here is the 6th post of the Call Reviews series, where we come forward and discuss the performance of our calls made as a part of daily analysis posts that we have been posting over the last 6 months. We are looking at five calls in each post. Remember again we are only looking at the short-term calls.

For Crompton Greaves Ltd. [stockquote]CROMPGREAV[/stockquote] in this post we gave a buy call. Its 5 day performance was 1.3%. NIFTY during the same period was up 3%.

For Sesa Goa Ltd. [stockquote]SESAGOA[/stockquote] in the next post we asked to buy. The stock had moved 7.6% next 5 days. NIFTY was up 1.9% during the same period.

For West Coast Paper Ltd. [stockquote]WSTCSTPAPR[/stockquote], in the following week’s post we gave a buy call. The stock was up 8% in the next 5 days.

In the next post, we picked MTNL Ltd. [stockquote]MTNL[/stockquote] and gave a buy call. The stock moved 13.1% over the next 5 days. NIFTY during the same period had moved up 0.7%.

Our last pick of the day, for ETF GOLDBEES Ltd. [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote] in this post we gave a sell call. The ETF moved -0.7% over the next 5 days period.

This gives our cumulative calls an accuracy level of 63%.

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