Weekly Recap: What Causes Recessions?

world.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.11%
CAC(FRA) +3.52%
UKX(GBR) +4.12%
NKY(JPN) +4.59%
SPX(USA) +2.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.45%
INMEX(MEX) +2.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.57%
XU030(TUR) +1.23%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) +5.88%
NIFTY(IND) +2.26%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.29%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.18%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +1.02%
Brent Crude Oil +1.01%
Ethanol +1.03%
Natural Gas -4.35%
RBOB Gasoline -1.32%
WTI Crude Oil +3.27%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -1.20%
Palladium +3.72%
Platinum +0.60%
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +0.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.61% USDJPY:+0.50%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.93%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.66%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.01%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.17%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -3.03%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.17%
USDINR(IND) -0.28%
USDRUB(RUS) -6.78%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.07%
Agricultural
Sugar #11 +4.55%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.08%
Coffee (Robusta) +6.95%
Corn -1.18%
Feeder Cattle -3.00%
White Sugar +2.18%
Cotton +3.65%
Lean Hogs -0.53%
Lumber -2.52%
Orange Juice -9.96%
Soybean Meal -6.64%
Soybeans -3.82%
Cattle -1.88%
Cocoa +0.99%
Wheat -0.57%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +1.47%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.49%
Markit CDX NA IG -3.14%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.97%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.50%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.71%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -11.21%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.42%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.56%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.09%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.14%
It was a good week for the equity markets. Ruble strength came as a surprise and credit gauges were bullish.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Index Returns

index performance.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +10.90% 78/53
2 +11.87% 85/46
3 +12.22% 86/45
4 +11.65% 83/47
5 +9.90% 86/45
6 +8.36% 79/52
7 +8.67% 78/52
8 +5.18% 73/58
9 +4.27% 70/61
10 (mega) +3.25% 71/60
A broad-based rally saw mid- and small-caps out-perform the large-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

GODREJCP +10.90%
UBL +14.68%
RCOM +18.53%
LUPIN -3.60%
HDFC -3.49%
FEDERALBNK -3.38%
Rally in RCOM seems a bit premature…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +4.48%
CPSEETF +3.62%
PSUBNKBEES +3.57%
NIFTYBEES +2.22%
BANKBEES +1.07%
INFRABEES +1.07%
GOLDBEES +0.83%
Green across the board, but gold under-performed equities…

Gold vs. Midcaps

You can send this to your mother-in-law. (http://svz.bz/1CCWifr)

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-31.2015-04-10

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.01 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.14 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.09 -0.00%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.11 -0.48%
Rates went up a smidgen. One would think that with the Moody’s change in outlook to “Positive”, we would have seen a rally in bonds…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

The market adjusts by the price mechanism. If the cost of something goes up, the price goes up to match. If demand falls, the price drops until the market clears. But prices themselves can’t adjust in response to events. This phenomenon is called “sticky prices.”

When prices are even a little sticky, bursts of technological progress actually hurt the economy for a short while, by causing a burst of deflation, before eventually boosting growth.

Source: How sticky prices might be the cause of recessions