Weekly Recap: Inevitablilty

world.2014-12-19.2014-12-26

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.38%
CAC(FRA) +1.28%
UKX(GBR) +0.99%
NKY(JPN) +1.12%
SPX(USA) +1.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.43%
INMEX(MEX) +0.69%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +13.60%
XU030(TUR) +1.50%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.47%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.58%
NIFTY(IND) -0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.16%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.21%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.56%
Heating Oil -2.21%
RBOB Gasoline -2.52%
Ethanol +0.80%
Natural Gas -13.76%
WTI Crude Oil -1.88%
Metals
Copper -2.06%
Palladium +1.23%
Gold 100oz -0.23%
Platinum +1.37%
Silver 5000oz +1.26%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.44% USDJPY:+0.74%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.70%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.35%
USDNGN(NGA) +1.11%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.27%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.75%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.13%
USDINR(IND) +0.42%
USDRUB(RUS) -9.38%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.03%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.66%
Cotton +1.63%
Feeder Cattle -3.89%
Lumber -0.24%
Orange Juice -0.87%
White Sugar +0.23%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.84%
Corn +1.35%
Wheat -2.81%
Cocoa +0.00%
Lean Hogs -1.17%
Soybean Meal +3.90%
Sugar #11 -1.41%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.22%
Soybeans +2.05%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +1.37%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.34%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.81%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.39%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe -4.00%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -20.00%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.28%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.25%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.08%
It was one heckuva week with the upside surprise in US GDP, thin holiday trading and a volatile expiry.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-12-19.2014-12-26

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-19.2014-12-26

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-19.2014-12-26

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-19.2014-12-26

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.05% 66/70
2 -0.47% 63/72
3 -0.82% 64/72
4 -0.50% 65/69
5 -1.73% 64/72
6 -0.27% 67/68
7 +1.35% 75/61
8 +0.02% 69/66
9 +1.19% 62/74
10 (mega) -0.43% 72/64
One big nothingburger.

Top Winners and Losers

BANKINDIA +5.00%
JINDALSTEL +8.98%
UNIONBANK +9.00%
HINDPETRO -5.26%
INFRATEL -4.89%
HINDALCO -3.68%
No bombs feel, computers did not take control…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +2.35%
BANKBEES +0.85%
INFRABEES +0.80%
JUNIORBEES +0.53%
GOLDBEES -0.01%
CPSEETF -0.36%
NIFTYBEES -0.71%
… and PSU banks outperformed.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-19.2014-12-26

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.42 +0.27%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.15 +0.60%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.02 +0.22%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.07 -0.40%
The long bond gave up some ground (FIIs selling?)

Investment Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

The most important thing to understand is that both bear markets and volatility are inevitable. In fact, they are the true source of the equity risk premium, and why it has historically been so large.

Stocks are riskier than bonds. Thus, investors demand a premium, in the form of a higher expected return, as compensation for taking the greater risk stocks entail. The key word is “expected.” If stocks always outperformed, there would be no risk in purchasing them. It’s the risk of the unexpected happening that leads to the equity risk premium.

Source: How To Think About Bear Markets

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