Category: Your Money

Opening Bell 13.12.2018

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.38%
CAC(FRA) +2.15%
UKX(GBR) +1.08%
NKY(JPN) +0.99%
SPX(USA) +0.54%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.70%
INMEX(MEX) -1.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.25%
XU030(TUR) -1.86%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.65%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.26%
NIFTY(IND) +1.79%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.82%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline +0.40%
Brent Crude Oil +0.57%
Natural Gas -0.75%
Ethanol +0.32%
Heating Oil +0.31%
WTI Crude Oil +0.49%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.07%
Platinum -0.16%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Copper +0.00%
Palladium -0.18%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.01% USDJPY:+0.13%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.50%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.13%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.07%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.22%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.19%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) +0.21%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.12%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.10%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Corn -0.33%
White Sugar +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybeans -0.16%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Soybean Meal +0.00%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Cotton -0.20%
Lumber +0.00%
Wheat +0.00%

Out of 43 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 9 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 11 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Opinion | Das, the banker vs Das, the bureaucrat
The appointment of Shaktikanta Das as the 25th governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is both a symbol of continuity and a break from tradition. Das is the latest addition to a long line of career bureaucrats who have been appointed as central bank governors—R.N. Malhotra, S. Venkitaramanan, Y.V.

Rational vs. Reasonable
I’m going to explain why it’s OK to make irrational investment decisions. First, a story about a guy who won the Nobel Prize for infecting syphilis patients with malaria.

Moneyball: was the book that changed baseball built on a false premise?
We now know virtually everything about Moneyball except one thing. Is it real? The book, of course, and the hugely popular movie with Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill are real, and the legend that’s built around it seems to pervade all of baseball.

Retail inflation eases to 2.3%, factory output grows 8%
The Monetary policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI slashed its inflation projection to 2.7-3.2% from 3.9-4.5% for the second half of the current fiscal. Photo: PTI New Delhi: India’s retail inflation decelerated to 2.33% in November and factory output accelerated by 8.

10 Things I Believe About Investing
1. I believe simple beats complex, but simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and feel more comfortable to buy into. 2.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 13.12.2018

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Dec 10800 calls added 2,41,200 contracts.
  2. Dec 8600 calls shed 9,20,775.
  3. Dec 10600 puts added 11,81,550.
  4. Dec 10200 puts shed 6,33,450.

Our trend model indicates a LONG on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 188.29 491.22
5 166.52 437.64
10 145.86 384.91
20 136.15 358.77

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 203.05 509.30
TrueHigh 10752.20 26672.70
TrueLow 10549.15 26163.40

Nifty 50 Returns Density Plot

NIFTY 50 kernel density plot

DEC NIFTY OI

DEC NIFTY OI chart

DEC BANKNIFTY OI

DEC BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

DEC NIFTY Volatility

DEC NIFTY Volatility chart

DEC BANKNIFTY Volatility

DEC BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 16.02 16.03 16.04 16.06 16.07
σ 1.84 1.71 1.59 1.48 1.39

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: ADANIENT, ADANIPOWER.
market wide position limit chart

FRED Scan 13.12.2018

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

Total Value of Issues, with a Maturity Between 41 and 80 Days, Used in Calculating the AA Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Rates

Total Value of Issues, with a Maturity Between 41 and 80 Days, Used in Calculating the AA Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Rates

CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index

CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index

ICE BofAML Asia US Emerging Markets Liquid Corporate Plus Sub-Index Total Return Index Value

ICE BofAML Asia US Emerging Markets Liquid Corporate Plus Sub-Index Total Return Index Value

ICE BofAML US Corporate AA Option-Adjusted Spread

ICE BofAML US Corporate AA Option-Adjusted Spread

Dow Jones Transportation Average

Dow Jones Transportation Average

Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Prices: Regular Gasoline: Los Angeles

Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Prices: Regular Gasoline: Los Angeles

Effective Federal Funds Volume

Effective Federal Funds Volume

NASDAQ OMX Commodities Index Update 12.12.2018

52-week Highs



NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR)

52w H 13143810 png

52-week Lows



NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR)

52w L 13143803 png

100-day Returns


top 5
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) 34.73
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) -19.82
bottom 5
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) -19.82
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) 34.73

200-day Returns


top 5
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) 17.64
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) -22.64
bottom 5
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) -22.64
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) 17.64

50-day Acceleration


top 5
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) 2.07
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) 0.64
bottom 5
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) 0.64
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) 2.07

100-day Acceleration


top 5
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) 5.65
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) -2.74
bottom 5
NASDAQ Commodity Palladium Index TR (NQCIPATR) -2.74
NASDAQ Commodity Nickel Index TR (NQCINITR) 5.65

Check out our international momentum dashboard here.

Opening Bell 12.12.2018

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.49%
CAC(FRA) +1.35%
UKX(GBR) +1.27%
NKY(JPN) +1.88%
SPX(USA) -0.04%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.35%
INMEX(MEX) -1.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.34%
XU030(TUR) -0.39%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.59%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.14%
NIFTY(IND) +0.58%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.84%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.85%
RBOB Gasoline +0.69%
Heating Oil +0.45%
Natural Gas -0.93%
Ethanol +0.00%
WTI Crude Oil +0.93%
Metals
Platinum +0.36%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.27%
Palladium +0.02%
Copper +0.07%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.11% USDJPY:+0.07%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.05%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.09%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.14%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.21%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.59%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.24%
USDINR(IND) +0.75%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.06%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.35%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.20%
Soybeans +0.36%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Soybean Meal +0.00%
Wheat +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Cotton -0.05%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%

Out of 43 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 2 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 6 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das: Once bitten, second time lucky
New Delhi: When on 6 November, 2016, prime minister Narendra Modi announced the invalidation of 86% of currency notes, only a small group of carefully chosen bureaucrats were in the loop.

Opinion | Forecasts for 2019 will be wrong, random or worse
This is the time of year for annual reckonings and predictions by strategists and analysts, illustrating little more than that they know what pleases their employers and that their powers of prognostication are non-existent.

How politics around anti-incumbency, farm distress affected assembly poll outcomes
New Delhi: Widespread distress among farmers due to falling crop prices and rising debt levels, coupled with anti-incumbency, played a significant role in the Congress unseating the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

Opinion: Why Urjit Patel will not be missed as RBI governor
Despite the laudable initiatives he took to fix the bad loans problem, the sudden exit of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Urjit Patel is, on balance, a positive development.


Farmer discontent, fatigue led to BJP debacle in Chhattisgarh
Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh.

Opinion | The shackled Indian farmer
In the last 10 days, Delhi has seen, at first hand, over 100,000 farmers marching to highlight agrarian distress. Unfortunately, the political response, both from government and the opposition, has been paternalistic platitudes on how it is our duty to help the farmers.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!