Monthly Recap: A Dozen Things Taught by Warren Buffett

world.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +6.61%
CAC(FRA) +7.54%
UKX(GBR) +2.92%
NKY(JPN) +6.36%
SPX(USA) +4.95%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.04%
INMEX(MEX) +8.10%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.83%
XU030(TUR) -6.16%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +10.38%
SHCOMP(CHN) +3.11%
NIFTY(IND) +0.41%
INDEXCF(RUS) +6.75%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.55%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +15.87%
Ethanol +4.71%
Natural Gas +1.65%
WTI Crude Oil +4.03%
Brent Crude Oil +19.84%
RBOB Gasoline +38.27%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -4.07%
Palladium +6.05%
Copper +7.54%
Gold 100oz -4.89%
Platinum -3.99%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.87% USDJPY:+1.87%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.06%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.30%
USDNGN(NGA) +7.50%
USDTRY(TUR) +2.56%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.81%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.30%
USDINR(IND) -0.05%
USDRUB(RUS) -11.87%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.01%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -15.10%
Orange Juice -13.76%
White Sugar -3.00%
Cocoa +6.99%
Lean Hogs +0.07%
Wheat +2.68%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.39%
Corn +3.30%
Feeder Cattle -4.76%
Lumber -7.83%
Cattle -1.67%
Cotton +7.53%
Soybean Meal +6.62%
Soybeans +7.05%
Sugar #11 -6.49%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.80%
Markit CDX NA IG -6.65%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -12.04%
Markit iTraxx Australia -12.42%
Markit iTraxx Europe -8.36%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -53.54%
Markit iTraxx Japan -4.43%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.77%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.03%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.59%
Most world markets ended in the green. The energy complex clocked in some impressive gains as well…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.87% 66/66
2 -3.59% 63/68
3 +3.03% 62/70
4 -1.24% 54/77
5 +1.86% 67/65
6 +1.88% 68/64
7 -0.26% 59/72
8 +3.20% 74/58
9 +1.42% 67/65
10 (mega) -0.02% 66/66
Mid-caps caught a bid but large-caps were mostly in the red…

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +21.26%
JINDALSTEL +23.38%
SIEMENS +28.31%
UNIONBANK -18.00%
RCOM -13.94%
AUROPHARMA -13.17%
Make defense stuff in India…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +0.31%
NIFTYBEES -0.04%
CPSEETF -0.36%
BANKBEES -1.65%
INFRABEES -1.76%
GOLDBEES -5.38%
PSUBNKBEES -6.40%
Not takers for PSU banks and their bag of worries…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.19 +0.55%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.34 +0.01%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 +0.09%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.04 +0.07%
A flat yield curve means you only get to clip the coupon…

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2015-02-28

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thoughts to sum up the month

A business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if it is bought for too high a price. In other words, a sound investment can morph into a rash speculation if it is bought at an elevated price.

Source: A Dozen Things Taught by Warren Buffett in his 50th Anniversary Letter that will Benefit Ordinary Investors

Weekly Recap: Wisdom in the Age of Information

world.2015-02-20.2015-02-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.18%
CAC(FRA) +2.50%
UKX(GBR) +0.45%
NKY(JPN) +2.54%
SPX(USA) +0.18%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.93%
INMEX(MEX) +1.75%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.45%
XU030(TUR) -1.91%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.82%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.95%
NIFTY(IND) +0.12%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.88%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.60%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +3.85%
Ethanol +0.42%
Natural Gas -8.20%
WTI Crude Oil -2.02%
Heating Oil -6.88%
RBOB Gasoline +20.39%
Metals
Copper +3.44%
Gold 100oz +0.61%
Palladium +5.14%
Platinum +1.58%
Silver 5000oz +0.61%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.02% USDJPY:+0.67%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.84%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.62%
USDNGN(NGA) +1.64%
USDTRY(TUR) +2.36%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.14%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.21%
USDINR(IND) -0.61%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.34%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.24%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -3.55%
Cotton -0.71%
Lean Hogs +1.80%
Soybean Meal +1.03%
Wheat +0.49%
Cocoa -0.05%
Corn -0.26%
Feeder Cattle +1.00%
Sugar #11 -4.02%
Cattle -3.31%
Lumber -2.08%
Orange Juice -7.56%
Soybeans +2.85%
Coffee (Arabica) -7.38%
White Sugar -2.34%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.18%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.78%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.75%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.66%
Markit iTraxx Europe -4.75%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -29.42%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.03%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.07%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.05%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.28%
After all the hype and hoopla, it turned to be a meh budget.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-02-20.2015-02-28

Index Returns

index performance.2015-02-20.2015-02-28

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-02-20.2015-02-28

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-02-20.2015-02-28

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.84% 68/67
2 -0.57% 71/63
3 -0.50% 66/69
4 -1.52% 57/78
5 -0.36% 70/65
6 -0.16% 65/70
7 -0.65% 64/71
8 -0.47% 68/67
9 +0.21% 62/73
10 (mega) -0.50% 66/69
Mal all around…

Top Winners and Losers

NTPC +7.04%
KOTAKBANK +7.61%
AXISBANK +9.10%
ITC -8.76%
SAIL -5.25%
MOTHERSUMI -5.22%
Investors are still trying to figure out what Make in India is all about.
Meanwhile, converging FPI & FDI might allow Axis Bank to be included back again into the MSCI India index.

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +2.94%
NIFTYBEES +0.66%
CPSEETF +0.44%
JUNIORBEES +0.36%
INFRABEES -1.08%
GOLDBEES -1.28%
PSUBNKBEES -2.43%
We still don’t know how PSU banks are going to fund themselves…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-02-20.2015-02-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.14 +0.11%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.26 -0.12%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.17 -0.41%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.06 -0.21%
A flat yield curve, going nowhere in a hurry…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

We live in a world awash with information, but we seem to face a growing scarcity of wisdom. And what’s worse, we confuse the two. We believe that having access to more information produces more knowledge, which results in more wisdom. But, if anything, the opposite is true — more and more information without the proper context and interpretation only muddles our understanding of the world rather than enriching it.

Correlation Update 01.03.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Opening Bell 27.02.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-02-27

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.04%
CAC(FRA) +0.58%
UKX(GBR) +0.21%
NKY(JPN) +0.07%
SPX(USA) -0.15%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.14%
INMEX(MEX) +1.39%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.50%
XU030(TUR) -1.03%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.10%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.08%
NIFTY(IND) -0.95%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.83%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.28%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.17%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.00%
Natural Gas +0.00%
RBOB Gasoline +1.55%
WTI Crude Oil +1.29%
Metals
Copper -0.52%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium +0.46%
Platinum +0.31%
Silver 5000oz +0.01%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.13% USDJPY:-0.13%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.37%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.09%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.20%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.08%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.28%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.17%
USDINR(IND) +0.17%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.03%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.10%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.07%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.26%
Cotton -0.03%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.44%
Orange Juice -1.38%
Soybean Meal +0.59%
Soybeans +0.56%
Sugar #11 +1.67%
Wheat -0.10%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.14%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.19%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.48%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.33%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.17%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -1.76%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.39%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.20%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.00%
A railway budget that was a budget. Looking forward to the day when Indian budgets become a non-event. Some would argue that it already is…

Must reads

Will Narendra Modi be India’s Thatcher? We’ll know tomorrow. (BBC, #economy)

Rail budget: No new trains. No increase in passenger fares. Consumer-centric. Four goals. Five drivers. Eleven thrust areas. And hopefully, lesser bed-bugs and cockroaches. (LiveMint, FT)

The best traders and investors in the world freely acknowledge just how hard it is to see what’s around the corner, but pundits act as though it’s simple. A pundit with real knowledge about the markets would almost certainly not be writing about it. He would be too busy spending his investment billions. (RCM)

Good luck!