Opening Bell 20.10.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-10-20

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.12%
CAC(FRA) +2.92%
UKX(GBR) +1.85%
NKY(JPN) +3.34%
SPX(USA) +1.29%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.30%
INMEX(MEX) +0.81%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.76%
XU030(TUR) +1.48%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.63%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.08%
NIFTY(IND) +0.41%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.79%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.26%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.16%
Ethanol +2.46%
Heating Oil +0.08%
Natural Gas -1.04%
RBOB Gasoline +0.08%
WTI Crude Oil +0.50%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz -0.23%
Palladium +0.23%
Platinum +0.58%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.03% USDJPY:+0.39%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.84%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.01%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.71%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.13%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.51%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.03%
USDINR(IND) -0.65%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.53%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.13%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.12%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.95%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.65%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle -0.55%
Lean Hogs +0.73%
Lumber -0.06%
Orange Juice -0.44%
Soybean Meal -0.36%
Soybeans -0.63%
Sugar #11 -0.54%
Wheat -0.58%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +1.24%
Markit CDX NA HY +1.03%
Markit CDX NA IG -3.28%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -11.49%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.36%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.00%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.38%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -22.05%
Markit iTraxx Japan +4.00%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.07%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.08%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.29%
US Dollar is rallying, NKY up on reports that Japan’s pension fund is going to buy more equities. SPX staged a smart comeback on Friday. With BJP’s winning streak continuing and reform agenda on track, we are setup for the next leg-up in equities. Let the Diwali fireworks commence!

Must reads

Japan’s massive Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is working on plans to raise the amount of its assets invested in domestic stocks to about 25% — it was 17% as of the end of June. (MW)

Congress-free India. (LiveMint)

The Modi government’s decision to raise natural gas prices to $5.6 per unit from $4.2 will significantly boost the earnings of ONGC. (ET) ONGC 399.95 -8.05 (-1.97%)

Next item for Modi’s administration to tackle: “The whole REITs structure is motivated by tax benefit. Taxation is involved at four stages–first while structuring and transferring assets to REITs or InvITs, second when they distribute income to its investors, third when they are traded and fourth time when there is an exit.” (NDTV, #REIT)

Coal Scam: CBI files case against JSPL. (IE, #scam) JINDALSTEL 162.50 17.05 (11.72%)

Scientists can now delete and fabricate memories in mice. Are humans next? (Vox)

Good luck!

Weekly Recap: Why do we want to be rich?

world.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.70%
CAC(FRA) -0.99%
UKX(GBR) -0.47%
NKY(JPN) -5.02%
SPX(USA) -2.08%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.33%
INMEX(MEX) -1.04%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -5.55%
XU030(TUR) +3.10%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.94%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.40%
NIFTY(IND) -1.02%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.50%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.97%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -4.30%
Ethanol +9.65%
Heating Oil -2.29%
Natural Gas -2.44%
RBOB Gasoline -0.99%
WTI Crude Oil -3.31%
Metals
Copper -0.99%
Gold 100oz +1.32%
Palladium -3.78%
Platinum +0.05%
Silver 5000oz +0.58%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.07% USDJPY:-0.89%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.92%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.81%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.39%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.74%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.26%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) +0.18%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.69%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.12%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.10%
Cocoa -0.97%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.03%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.13%
Corn +3.96%
Cotton -1.90%
Feeder Cattle -0.85%
Lean Hogs -17.59%
Lumber -2.48%
Orange Juice -2.49%
Soybean Meal -2.28%
Soybeans +2.92%
Sugar #11 +0.24%
Wheat +3.36%
White Sugar +1.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.19%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.17%
Markit CDX NA IG +4.11%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +15.62%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +7.44%
Markit iTraxx Australia +6.28%
Markit iTraxx Europe +8.22%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +47.19%
Markit iTraxx Japan +6.47%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.20%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.40%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.31%
Markets were in full-blown panic mode this week. So much so that the president of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, a hawk, had to come out and say that central-bank bond buying should continue beyond its scheduled end this month. And the chief economist at the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane, said “interest rates could remain lower for longer.” Previously, UK interest rates had been expected to rise early next year.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Index Returns

index performance.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -9.23% 70/65
2 -3.31% 56/79
3 -3.21% 58/78
4 -2.90% 59/75
5 -3.38% 58/77
6 -2.42% 60/75
7 -3.11% 59/77
8 -1.58% 61/73
9 -2.56% 71/64
10 (mega) -0.98% 67/69
A total bloodbath beyond the mega-caps.

Top winners and losers

LICHSGFIN +6.63%
BANKINDIA +7.90%
UNIONBANK +8.26%
DLF -27.55%
HCLTECH -13.35%
TCS -8.86%
Are rate-cut expectations running ahead of themselves? Rally in banking and home-finance stocks feel a bit overdone. TCS and HCLTECH sold off on earnings. But read this. DLF got royally fcuked by the SEBI.

ETFs

BANKBEES +2.96%
PSUBNKBEES +1.98%
GOLDBEES +1.06%
CPSEETF +0.25%
JUNIORBEES -0.04%
NIFTYBEES -1.11%
INFRABEES -1.63%
A surprising rally in banks while infrastructure remains sick…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.29 +0.24%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.65 -0.25%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.01 -0.59%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.03 +0.11%
Curve can’t get any flatter…

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.OCT.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.OCT.2014-10-10.2014-10-17

Theme Performance

The CNX 100 Tactical Theme spent the whole week in cash. Both value and momentum strategies got pummeled.

Thought for the weekend

Fearing the future is natural, as is the conviction that ultimately we each must depend on ourselves. But in truth, our safest asset is our collective prosperity. Technological progress and productivity gains continue to make us richer on the supply side.

It would be tragic if productivity gains end up making most of us poorer, just because we find it uncomfortable to face the euthanasia of the rentier.

Source: safe assets, secular stagnation, and financial repression

Opening Bell 17.10.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-10-17

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.13%
CAC(FRA) -0.54%
UKX(GBR) -0.25%
NKY(JPN) -0.48%
SPX(USA) +0.01%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.34%
INMEX(MEX) -0.18%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.01%
XU030(TUR) -0.37%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.27%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.42%
NIFTY(IND) -1.47%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.22%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.53%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.68%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.57%
Natural Gas +0.21%
RBOB Gasoline +0.46%
WTI Crude Oil +0.54%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium +0.64%
Platinum +0.84%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.09% USDJPY:-0.10%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.24%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.02%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.32%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.00%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.61%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.04%
USDINR(IND) +0.69%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.42%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.10%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.61%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.60%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.35%
Cotton +0.68%
Feeder Cattle -0.42%
Lean Hogs -0.97%
Lumber -0.75%
Orange Juice -0.44%
Soybean Meal +0.03%
Soybeans -0.44%
Sugar #11 +1.03%
Wheat +0.68%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.85%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.07%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.73%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +5.02%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.14%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.58%
Markit iTraxx Europe +5.67%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +28.78%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.12%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.25%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.28%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.89%
USD rally still intact. NKY in the red this morning. Credit spreads still stressed. But after this correction has run its course, we may be in for a mother of all seasonal rallies…

Must reads

New labor laws, new budget team, end of “Inspector Raj.” (LiveMint)

In retail forex trading, 9 out of 10 clients lost money. (FT)

Market interest rates, which central banks aim to influence when they set their policy rates, play some role in how much firms invest, but not much. A government that wants to pep up the economy would have more luck with other measures, such as lower taxes or less onerous regulation. (Economist)

Those looking to the Fed to save the day are looking at the wrong place. (FT)

A San Francisco entrepreneur, who raised funding from Mark Cuban, spent all the money he raised on parties. (Gawker)

Good luck and have a nice weekend!

Opening Bell 16.10.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-10-16

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.87%
CAC(FRA) -3.63%
UKX(GBR) -2.83%
NKY(JPN) -2.23%
SPX(USA) -0.81%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.67%
INMEX(MEX) -0.36%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.02%
XU030(TUR) +0.22%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.24%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.39%
NIFTY(IND) -0.26%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.22%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.19%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.51%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.73%
Natural Gas +0.11%
RBOB Gasoline +0.04%
WTI Crude Oil -1.31%
Metals
Copper +0.18%
Gold 100oz -0.27%
Palladium -0.53%
Platinum -0.71%
Silver 5000oz +0.09%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.10% USDJPY:+0.12%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.07%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.15%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.76%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.00%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.39%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.04%
USDINR(IND) +0.52%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.43%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.01%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.32%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.03%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.29%
Cotton +0.25%
Feeder Cattle +0.23%
Lean Hogs -1.01%
Lumber +0.42%
Orange Juice +1.79%
Soybean Meal +0.00%
Soybeans +0.24%
Sugar #11 -1.78%
Wheat +0.25%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.26%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.64%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.40%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +5.81%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +3.18%
Markit iTraxx Australia +3.38%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.10%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +2.54%
Markit iTraxx Japan +4.23%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.03%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.12%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.39%
NKY down 4 handles, SPX staged a half-time rebound to salvage what was left of the first-half carnage. Credit spreads have blown out. Oil is below $80. No escape.

Must reads

Inflation is dead: It’s 1.5% in the US, 1.2% in the UK, 1.6% in China, 1.1% in Japan and 0.3% in the Eurozone. #inflation

Brent crude at $80 would have effect of huge global QE program – a $1.8bn daily windfall, about $660bn annualised. (FT)

Is this the beginning of the end of Tata Steel’s Corus acquisition? (IE) TATASTEEL 457.30 1.60 (0.35%)

Wait! What? Sebi’s order barring DLF, its promoters, and some top executives from accessing the capital markets will not have a bearing on its operations, sources at the country’s largest real estate company said. (ET) DLF 120.20 -1.20 (-0.99%)

IndiGo places largest-ever single order for planes, to buy 250 Airbus A320neo aircraft – a ticket size of $25.5 billion. (Hindu)

The dark side of efficient markets: systematically high volatility and an entire industry that exists to exploit and exacerbate it. (HBR)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 15.10.2014

Opening Bell

world.2014-10-15

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.15%
CAC(FRA) +0.23%
UKX(GBR) +0.42%
NKY(JPN) -0.13%
SPX(USA) +0.16%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.60%
INMEX(MEX) +0.17%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.92%
XU030(TUR) -0.63%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.10%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.08%
NIFTY(IND) -0.26%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.74%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.76%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.49%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.43%
Natural Gas +0.47%
RBOB Gasoline +0.33%
WTI Crude Oil +0.35%
Metals
Copper -0.39%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium -1.47%
Platinum -1.08%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.13% USDJPY:+0.08%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.20%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.04%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.05%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.25%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.02%
USDINR(IND) +0.52%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.08%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.12%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.97%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.42%
Cotton +0.06%
Feeder Cattle -0.05%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.96%
Orange Juice +1.09%
Soybean Meal +0.00%
Soybeans -0.44%
Sugar #11 +0.96%
Wheat -0.34%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.01%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.01%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.00%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +0.00%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.79%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.48%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.78%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +4.46%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.00%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.25%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.00%
The US Dollar rally continues. SPX up overnight but NKY down this morning. Have global equity markets found their footing? Is the worst of the correction behind us?

Must reads

DLF is fcuked right now. (Reuters) DLF 120.20 -1.20 (-0.99%)

Adam Gopnik: “[w]hat history actually shows is that nothing works out as planned, and that everything has unintentional consequences.” Indeed, “the best argument for reading history is not that it will show us the right thing to do in one case or the other, but rather that it will show us why even doing the right thing rarely works out.” (TA)

Once again, forget “Make in India.” Export-oriented industrialization, history’s most certain path to riches, may have run its course. Manufacturing today is not what it used to be. It has become much more capital- and skill-intensive, with greatly diminished potential to absorb large amounts of labour from the countryside. (LiveMint)

Sensitivity of developing countries to changes in the cost of different types of commodities (FT):

CS-commodity-price-sensitivity

7 pieces of Warren Buffett’ advice.

Markets closed today because of elections in Mumbai.