Analysis: SAIL

Today’s pick is SAIL [stockquote]SAIL[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a nick of an uptrend to see the Rs. 115 levels but dropped on its chin due to lost momentum soon thereafter to see itself around Rs. 80 levels by September. After a couple of trials to move up, the stock finally broke the down-trend in place during late December and is currently trading at Rs. 90. In the last three months, the stock has moved +12% vs. +6% of the Nifty’s.

SAIL technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no man’s land unable to suggest any direction. The stock just saw a short-term 9×4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line is moving towards the signal line, accompanied by the falling histogram levels such movement is suggesting an imminent bearish move for the stock. The long-term GMMA lines are well dispersed out, suggesting a bullish outlook for the scrip. However, the sudden decrease in the prices has led to a constrained movement of short-term GMMA lines giving a bearish signal.

SAIL Correlation chart

SAIL’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.67 is positive and strong. The scrip will be closely replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SAIL volatility chart

SAIL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the middle of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell. Looking at the well dispersed GMMA lines we suggest a long-term Buy for the script with a keen eye around Rs. 100 levels for any resistance.

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Sunder’s List

Global Roundup: Dow +0.25% to 13068. S&P +0.25%. Crude -1.72% to $86.36. Gold +0.34% to $1699.55. London +0.16%. Germany +1.07%. France +0.31%.

The government today said it has decided to divest stake in 10 companies, including Oil India, SAIL, HAL, RINL, NMDC, NALCO, NTPC, BHEL, MMTC and Hindustan Copper. (ET)

Will Retail FDI clear Rajya Sabha? Nothing is certain yet. (ET)

Singapore Court of Appeal: the Maldives government has the authority to take back Male airport from GMR. The Maldives Government will now go ahead with the airport transfer as scheduled. (ET)

Except for dairy, international prices of all the commodity groups included in the FAO Food Price Index fell in November, with sugar undergoing the sharpest dip, followed by oils and cereals.  The decline puts the November index value nearly 3% below one year ago. (FAO)

So now that you can afford food, you can sped that extra money on a new car. General Motor will increase the price of cars it sells in India by 1% to 3% from January 2013 due to high input costs and currency fluctuation. (Reuters)

A Wall Street Journal analysis of daily trading in roughly 10,000 stocks since 2004 found that on the final trading day of each quarter, there was a sharp increase in the number of stocks that beat the market by at least five percentage points, then trailed it by three points or more the next trading day. Some money managers wait until the waning moments of the quarter to bid aggressively for more shares of a stock they already own, which drives up the value of their entire position in the stock. That, in turn, boosts their performance at the very moment when they report results, making their funds look more appealing to potential investors. Even if the jump in stock price is only temporary, the managers can attract new money and earn higher fees. How is your Mutual Fund investment looking lately? (WSJ)

Have a nice weekend!

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[stockquote]BHEL[/stockquote] [stockquote]GMRINFRA[/stockquote] [stockquote]HINDCOPPER[/stockquote] [stockquote]MMTC[/stockquote] [stockquote]NATIONALUM[/stockquote] [stockquote]NMDC[/stockquote] [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote] [stockquote]OIL[/stockquote] [stockquote]SAIL[/stockquote]