Tag: weekly

Weekly Recap: Language & Decision Making

Equities

world equity markets 2014-05-09.2014-05-16

The Nifty put in a MODIfied return of +5.02% (+7.15% in USD terms) this week…

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.50%
CAC(FRA) -0.47%
UKX(GBR) +0.61%
NKY(JPN) -0.73%
SPX(USA) +0.22%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.72%
INMEX(MEX) +0.84%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.21%
XU030(TUR) -0.76%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.31%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.76%
NIFTY(IND) +5.02%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.52%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.77%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.86%
Ethanol +3.47%
Heating Oil +1.60%
Natural Gas -2.41%
RBOB Gasoline +2.85%
WTI Crude Oil +2.45%
Metals
Copper +1.94%
Gold 100oz +0.47%
Palladium +1.89%
Platinum +2.51%
Silver 5000oz +1.05%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.45% USDJPY:-0.25%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.03%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.50%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.71%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.06%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.23%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) -2.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.34%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.16%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.35%
Cocoa +2.99%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.19%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.81%
Corn -4.16%
Cotton -2.24%
Feeder Cattle +1.52%
Lean Hogs +4.06%
Lumber -3.78%
Orange Juice -2.81%
Soybean Meal -3.32%
Soybeans -2.50%
Sugar #11 +4.08%
Wheat -5.79%
White Sugar +4.18%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-05-09.2014-05-16

Index returns

index performance.2014-05-09.2014-05-16

Top winners and losers

UNIONBANK +25.82%
CANBK +26.36%
PFC +27.98%
DRREDDY -11.45%
GLENMARK -7.09%
MCDOWELL-N -4.72%
Banks in, Pharma out…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +9.50%
BANKBEES +7.53%
JUNIORBEES +6.61%
INFRABEES +4.97%
NIFTYBEES +4.48%
GOLDBEES -2.25%
We were definitely risk ON this week…

Investment Theme Performance

High beta trumped every other strategy…

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-05-09.2014-05-16

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-05-09.2014-05-16

Thought for the weekend

You are on a footbridge watching a trolley speeding down a track that will kill five unsuspecting people. You can push a fat man over the bridge onto the tracks to save the five. (You cannot stop the trolley by jumping yourself, only the fat man is heavy enough.) Would you do it?

If you thought the language in which a dilemma is posed should make no difference to how it is answered, think again!

Source: Gained in translation

Weekly Recap: Judgement Risk

Equities

world equity markets 2014-05-02.2014-05-09

The Nifty rocketed up almost 3% on Friday, ending the week +2.45% (+2.74% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.27%
CAC(FRA) +0.43%
UKX(GBR) -0.12%
NKY(JPN) -1.78%
SPX(USA) -0.06%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.23%
INMEX(MEX) +1.88%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.05%
XU030(TUR) +0.41%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.29%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.75%
NIFTY(IND) +2.45%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.10%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.62%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.68%
Ethanol +0.47%
Heating Oil -0.50%
Natural Gas -3.14%
RBOB Gasoline -1.66%
WTI Crude Oil +0.27%
Metals
Copper +0.65%
Gold 100oz -1.05%
Palladium -1.39%
Platinum -0.52%
Silver 5000oz -2.55%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.86% USDJPY:-0.34%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.06%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.49%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.84%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.29%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.39%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.51%
USDINR(IND) -0.23%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.70%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.27%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.36%
Cocoa -1.99%
Coffee (Arabica) -8.94%
Coffee (Robusta) -3.15%
Corn +2.18%
Cotton -1.51%
Feeder Cattle +0.72%
Lean Hogs -2.14%
Lumber -1.51%
Orange Juice +3.03%
Soybean Meal +1.08%
Soybeans +1.37%
Sugar #11 -1.38%
Wheat +1.20%
White Sugar -0.28%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY 2014-05-02.2014-05-09

Index Returns

index performance 2014-05-02.2014-05-09

Top winners and losers

ICICIBANK +10.08%
ADANIPORTS +10.14%
HINDPETRO +10.15%
GLENMARK -8.02%
GODREJCP -6.41%
UNIONBANK -5.16%
Is Adani Ports finally catching up with Adani Enterprises in the Modi hopium rally?

ETFs

INFRABEES +9.12%
BANKBEES +6.90%
PSUBNKBEES +6.35%
NIFTYBEES +3.33%
JUNIORBEES +1.58%
Banks are back! Infra is back! Modi will solve everything!

Investment Theme Performance

High beta and mid-cap value outperformed this week. IT was sh*t out of luck.

Sector performance

sector performance 2014-05-02.2014-05-09

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-05-02.2014-05-09

Thought for the weekend

Grove, Zald, Lebow, Snitz and Nelson (2000), Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities Campus (pdf):

The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges’ amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances.

Basically: Models beat experts.

Weekly Recap: Growing Organically, Being Productive

Equities

world equity markets 2014-04-25.2014-05-02

The Nifty ended the week -1.30% (+0.16% in USD terms)

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.64%
CAC(FRA) +0.33%
UKX(GBR) +2.05%
NKY(JPN) +0.20%
SPX(USA) +1.04%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.20%
INMEX(MEX) +2.12%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.84%
XU030(TUR) +5.98%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.00%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.50%
NIFTY(IND) -1.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.93%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.37%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.12%
Ethanol -6.11%
Heating Oil -2.28%
Natural Gas +1.04%
RBOB Gasoline -4.28%
WTI Crude Oil -0.68%
Metals
Copper -1.60%
Gold 100oz -0.22%
Palladium +0.20%
Platinum +1.14%
Silver 5000oz -2.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.25% USDJPY:+0.05%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.35%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.92%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.65%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.34%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.99%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.11%
USDINR(IND) -0.76%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.56%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.69%
Agricultural
Cattle -4.47%
Cocoa -1.53%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.59%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.08%
Corn -2.66%
Cotton +0.95%
Feeder Cattle +2.11%
Lean Hogs -3.17%
Lumber +2.80%
Orange Juice -4.19%
Soybean Meal +0.20%
Soybeans -1.12%
Sugar #11 +1.40%
Wheat +1.03%
White Sugar -1.42%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap 2014-04-25.2014-05-02

Index Returns

index performance 2014-04-25.2014-05-02

Top winners and losers

HINDPETRO +4.55%
GLENMARK +10.30%
UPL +21.53%
JINDALSTEL -13.11%
DLF -8.98%
TATASTEEL -8.63%
DLF’s Vadra moment?

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES -0.18%
BANKBEES -1.36%
JUNIORBEES -1.55%
NIFTYBEES -1.77%
INFRABEES -5.94%
No ETF left behind in the green zone!

Investment Theme Performance

Value worked, momentum worked. Smart-beta? Not so smart. Also, this might be the last month that Velocity would be available. It has been superseded by Momentum 200. While Velocity looked at prices to gauge momentum, the new algorithm uses a probabilistic setup.

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-04-25.2014-05-02

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-04-25.2014-05-02

Thought for the weekend

Organically, value grows bit-by-bit, but often prices move in a more volatile fashion. Try to win by buying stocks that grow value. Winning from speculation is a crapshoot. Avoid it, the odds are against you.

Imagine for a moment that we did not have financial markets. Who would do the best? Those that compounded their economic activities the best — those who were the most productive. The same is true for us today. Focus on companies that are productive, growing organically. That is almost always a good road to profits.

Source: Avoid Easy Money

Weekly Recap: Complex Adaptive

Equities

world equity markets 2014-04-17.2014-04-25

Another flat week for the Nifty (-1.15% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.09%
CAC(FRA) +0.27%
UKX(GBR) +0.91%
NKY(JPN) -1.22%
SPX(USA) -0.08%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.26%
INMEX(MEX) -1.97%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.09%
XU030(TUR) -3.25%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.37%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.60%
NIFTY(IND) +0.05%
INDEXCF(RUS) -5.63%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.93%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.13%
Ethanol +2.92%
Heating Oil -0.56%
Natural Gas -2.07%
RBOB Gasoline +0.79%
WTI Crude Oil -3.36%
Metals
Copper +1.63%
Gold 100oz +0.52%
Palladium +1.30%
Platinum +0.27%
Silver 5000oz +1.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.18% USDJPY:-0.43%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.16%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.61%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.20%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.15%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.31%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.45%
USDINR(IND) +0.50%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.31%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.56%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.59%
Cocoa -1.98%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.20%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.76%
Corn +1.92%
Cotton +3.23%
Feeder Cattle +0.88%
Lean Hogs -2.19%
Lumber +2.60%
Orange Juice -2.05%
Soybean Meal +0.41%
Soybeans -1.09%
Sugar #11 +2.94%
Wheat +1.38%
White Sugar +2.87%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap 2014-04-17.2014-04-25

Index returns

index performance 2014-04-17.2014-04-25

Top winners and losers

CONCOR +10.64%
M&MFIN +10.65%
YESBANK +12.30%
WIPRO -11.37%
CAIRN -9.18%
CROMPGREAV -6.88%
Wipro tanked on muted outlook. L&T Finance and YES Bank and exploring a merger…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +6.75%
JUNIORBEES +2.30%
GOLDBEES +2.14%
BANKBEES +1.94%
NIFTYBEES +0.37%
INFRABEES -9.69%
PSU banks continued to tick up…

Investment Theme Performance

Nice to see all investment strategies end in green this week!

Sector performance

sector performance 2014-04-17.2014-04-25

Yield Curve

What is going on in the short end of the curve?

yield Curve 2014-04-17.2014-04-25

Weekend Reading

Weather is a complex system. The act of predicting does not influence the outcome. Although near-term weather is extremely complex, with many interacting parts leading to higher order outcomes, it does have an element of predictability.

The stock-market is a complex adaptive system. Traders and investors in the market are interacting with one another constantly and adapting their behavior to what they know about others’ behavior. The key element of a complex adaptive system is the social element.

Source: Musings on stock-market forecasts

Weekly Recap: Options

Equities

world equity markets 2014-04-11.2014-04-18

It was a short week that saw a very volatile Nifty end flat (-0.14% in USD terms.) Here’s how the rest of the world markets fared:

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.99%
CAC(FRA) +1.50%
UKX(GBR) +0.97%
NKY(JPN) +3.28%
SPX(USA) +2.38%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.67%
INMEX(MEX) +2.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.62%
XU030(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.88%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.49%
NIFTY(IND) +0.05%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.40%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.76%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.87%
Ethanol -7.56%
Heating Oil +2.35%
Natural Gas +2.16%
RBOB Gasoline +1.11%
WTI Crude Oil +0.65%
Metals
Copper +0.33%
Gold 100oz -1.88%
Palladium -1.08%
Platinum -2.98%
Silver 5000oz -2.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.42% USDJPY:+0.69%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.08%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.91%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.38%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.56%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.13%
USDINR(IND) +0.19%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.05%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.02%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.55%
Cocoa -0.27%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.25%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.94%
Corn -0.85%
Cotton +1.35%
Feeder Cattle -0.74%
Lean Hogs -1.46%
Lumber -0.82%
Orange Juice +0.27%
Soybean Meal +3.49%
Soybeans +3.64%
Sugar #11 -0.83%
Wheat +4.66%
White Sugar +6.50%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap 2014-04-11.2014-04-17

Index returns

index performance 2014-04-11.2014-04-17

Top winners and losers

RECLTD +3.50%
CROMPGREAV +7.67%
MCDOWELL-N +11.58%
DLF -9.44%
BANKINDIA -6.21%
YESBANK -5.89%
Banks saw some profit taking, USL was lifted by Diageo’s open offer.

ETFs

INFRABEES +16.16%
GOLDBEES +1.26%
NIFTYBEES +0.05%
BANKBEES -0.26%
JUNIORBEES -2.43%
PSUBNKBEES -4.54%
Infrastructure was back with a bang.

Investment Theme Performance

High beta tumbled and is Consistent10 has turned in 2x NIFTY returns since its inception!

consistent10 theme performance

Sector performance

sector performance 2014-04-11.2014-04-17

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-04-11.2014-04-17

Weekend Reading

We have started a series of posts that introduces options. We discuss the intuition behind the math and quant models, greeks and strategies with a ton of charts and original content. If you have read about options before or have a vague idea of what they are, then this is a good take-off point.

Options Trading Guide