Tag: weekly

Weekly Recap: 8 Truths

world equity markets 2014-07-18.2014-07-25

The Nifty posted a decent +1.65% this week (+1.96% in USD) in spite of Friday’s sell off.

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.78%
CAC(FRA) -0.11%
UKX(GBR) +0.62%
NKY(JPN) +1.59%
SPX(USA) +0.16%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.04%
INMEX(MEX) +0.70%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.41%
XU030(TUR) +2.49%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.15%
SHCOMP(CHN) +3.28%
NIFTY(IND) +1.65%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.43%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.37%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.03%
Ethanol +1.91%
Heating Oil +2.17%
Natural Gas -4.23%
RBOB Gasoline +0.10%
WTI Crude Oil -1.26%
Metals
Copper +1.89%
Gold 100oz -1.08%
Palladium -0.19%
Platinum -0.50%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.73% USDJPY:+0.47%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.32%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.10%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.09%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.39%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.10%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.26%
USDINR(IND) -0.30%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.03%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.23%
Agricultural
Cattle +4.70%
Cocoa +2.80%
Coffee (Arabica) +9.03%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.09%
Corn -2.42%
Cotton -5.41%
Feeder Cattle +2.91%
Lean Hogs -2.67%
Lumber +0.06%
Orange Juice -3.14%
Soybean Meal +4.63%
Soybeans +2.82%
Sugar #11 +1.00%
Wheat +1.22%
White Sugar -0.47%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

Index Returns

index performance.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Advance/Decline
1 (micro-cap) -6.16% 68/66
2 -0.32% 62/72
3 -3.25% 60/74
4 -0.68% 62/72
5 +0.39% 70/64
6 -2.19% 60/74
7 +0.03% 65/69
8 -1.79% 60/74
9 -0.05% 66/68
10 (mega-cap) +1.07% 70/64
Most of the market performance was centered around large-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

HDFC +8.62%
ASIANPAINT +9.81%
GLENMARK +11.84%
CAIRN -10.61%
CROMPGREAV -8.26%
DLF -7.35%
A dick move by Cairn sent its stock reeling. After insisting that it need the cash for expansion (and not paying it out in dividends and being less than honest about its buyback), it loans $1.25 billion to Vedanta. Independent directors sleeping at the wheel as usual.

ETFs

NIFTYBEES +1.47%
BANKBEES +0.09%
INFRABEES -0.79%
JUNIORBEES -1.64%
GOLDBEES -1.70%
PSUBNKBEES -4.69%
Banks vs. PSU banks – its a walk off!

Investment Theme Performance

We have this thing called “Refract” going on where we plan to take the NSE equity only portion of a mutual fund’s portfolio and setup an equally weighted theme. Its a live experiment, so follow along…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

July Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

August Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-07-18.2014-07-25

Thought for the weekend

8 things that you understand intellectually, but don’t accept in reality.

  1. Anyone can outperform at any time, no one can outperform all the time.
  2. Persistence of performance is nearly non-existent.
  3. Taxes and commissions matter.
  4. Smart doesn’t equal good.
  5. Incentives matter.
  6. The crowd is always at its most wrong at the worst possible time.
  7. Fear is significantly more powerful than greed.
  8. There is no pleasure without the potential for pain.

Source: Truths Investors Simply Cannot Accept

Weekly Recap: Uncertainty and Overconfidence

world.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

The Nifty clocked in a respectable +2.74% (+2.49% in USD) this week.

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.56%
CAC(FRA) +0.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.89%
NKY(JPN) +0.34%
SPX(USA) +0.62%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.08%
INMEX(MEX) +1.44%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.14%
XU030(TUR) +3.93%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.09%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.59%
NIFTY(IND) +2.74%
INDEXCF(RUS) -5.22%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.06%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.87%
Ethanol -0.71%
Heating Oil -0.30%
Natural Gas -4.92%
RBOB Gasoline -1.61%
WTI Crude Oil +2.33%
Metals
Copper -2.45%
Gold 100oz -1.96%
Palladium +1.08%
Platinum -1.42%
Silver 5000oz -2.80%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.63% USDJPY:+0.00%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.23%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.30%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.31%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.26%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.17%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.07%
USDINR(IND) +0.58%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.66%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.60%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.49%
Cocoa -1.48%
Coffee (Arabica) +4.53%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.10%
Corn -7.04%
Cotton -0.51%
Feeder Cattle +0.28%
Lean Hogs -4.17%
Lumber -3.06%
Orange Juice +5.38%
Soybean Meal -9.79%
Soybeans -9.11%
Sugar #11 -0.41%
Wheat +2.75%
White Sugar +0.33%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Index Returns

index performance.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

MARKET CAP DECILE PERFORMANCE

Decile Mkt. Cap. Advance/Decline
1 (micro-cap) -4.54% 65/72
2 +1.60% 72/64
3 +4.22% 76/60
4 +5.02% 77/59
5 +4.53% 84/52
6 +6.16% 76/61
7 +5.84% 81/55
8 +5.23% 86/50
9 +4.39% 74/62
10 (mega-cap) +3.21% 68/69
Midcaps recovered somewhat from last week’s shellacking but micro-caps continued to bleed.

Top winners and losers

MPHASIS +12.85%
ADANIPORTS +15.92%
CROMPGREAV +22.63%
RECLTD -4.71%
HINDUNILVR -3.01%
BAJAJ-AUTO -2.47%
A mixed bag…

ETFs

BANKBEES +5.64%
JUNIORBEES +4.95%
PSUBNKBEES +4.68%
INFRABEES +3.50%
NIFTYBEES +2.82%
GOLDBEES -1.12%
Gold, once again, out of favor.

Investment Theme Performance

Back from the precipice. Quantitative value themes out performed…

Yield Curve

A flat yield curve does not a bank profit make.

yield Curve.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-07-11.2014-07-18

Thought for the weekend

Experts have a poor understanding of uncertainty. Usually, this manifests itself in the form of overconfidence: experts underestimate the likelihood that their predictions might be wrong.

Source: Herman Cain and the Hubris of Experts

Related: Why Do Models Beat Experts?

Weekly Recap: 7 market myths

world equity markets 2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Nifty got royally shellacked, ending the week -3.77% (-4.39% in USD terms.)

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.42%
CAC(FRA) -3.41%
UKX(GBR) -2.56%
NKY(JPN) -1.77%
SPX(USA) -0.90%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.58%
INMEX(MEX) -0.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.46%
XU030(TUR) +2.45%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.35%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.60%
NIFTY(IND) -3.77%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.76%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.14%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -3.54%
Ethanol -6.49%
Heating Oil -1.67%
Natural Gas -5.18%
RBOB Gasoline -3.31%
WTI Crude Oil -3.16%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +1.39%
Palladium +1.08%
Platinum +0.86%
Silver 5000oz +0.94%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.11% USDJPY:-0.74%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -2.40%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.15%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.23%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.74%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.36%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.02%
USDINR(IND) +0.34%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.71%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.53%
Agricultural
Cattle -3.85%
Cocoa +0.31%
Coffee (Arabica) -8.26%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.80%
Corn -4.61%
Cotton -10.09%
Feeder Cattle -3.31%
Lean Hogs +1.03%
Lumber +0.71%
Orange Juice +3.26%
Soybean Meal -5.90%
Soybeans -6.63%
Sugar #11 -4.38%
Wheat -8.72%
White Sugar -3.86%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Index Returns

index performance.2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Advance/Decline
1 (micro-cap) -9.49% 63/76
2 -8.52% 55/84
3 -9.83% 46/93
4 -10.80% 50/87
5 -8.25% 51/89
6 -8.42% 45/94
7 -8.22% 50/88
8 -8.41% 54/85
9 -6.88% 65/74
10 (mega-cap) -4.45% 62/77
Mid-caps, that saw an incredible Modi-hopium rally experienced deep corrections.

Top winners and losers

RANBAXY +4.27%
SUNPHARMA +4.83%
IDFC +10.90%
UNIONBANK -18.14%
CROMPGREAV -17.31%
ADANIENT -15.47%
Banks, industrials and Adanis felt the brunt of the Modi-hopium hangover.

Etfs

GOLDBEES +1.74%
NIFTYBEES -3.87%
BANKBEES -6.45%
INFRABEES -7.62%
JUNIORBEES -8.11%
PSUBNKBEES -9.87%
Looks like the market expected a lot more for PSU banks in the budget.

Investment Theme Performance

No winners, only different shades of red…

Yield Curve

Typically, you would expect bonds to rally whenever equities fall, but not this time. Yields rose this week.

yield Curve.2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-07-04.2014-07-11

Thought for the weekend

What you think you know about money can hurt you:

  1. You too can be Warren Buffett
  2. You get what you pay for
  3. You should focus either on fundamentals or technical analysis
  4. The myth of ‘passive’ investing
  5. The stock market will make you rich
  6. You have to beat the market
  7. ‘Stocks for the long run’ is the best strategy

Source: 7 market myths that make investors poorer

Weekly Recap: The World Is A Hyperlink

world equity markets 2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Equities

The Nifty turned out to be the best performing market this week, turning in +3.23% (+3.75% in USD.)

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.98%
CAC(FRA) +0.72%
UKX(GBR) +1.60%
NKY(JPN) +2.27%
SPX(USA) +1.52%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.25%
INMEX(MEX) +2.05%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.00%
XU030(TUR) -1.44%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.80%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.12%
NIFTY(IND) +3.23%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.84%
TOP40(ZAF) +3.13%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -2.34%
Ethanol +5.57%
Heating Oil -2.73%
Natural Gas -0.75%
RBOB Gasoline -2.71%
WTI Crude Oil -1.78%
Metals
Copper +3.49%
Gold 100oz +0.17%
Palladium +2.65%
Platinum +1.53%
Silver 5000oz +0.47%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.37% USDJPY:+0.67%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.02%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.12%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.31%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.40%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.55%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.21%
USDINR(IND) -0.58%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.21%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.42%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.90%
Cocoa -1.81%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.24%
Coffee (Robusta) +2.27%
Corn -5.39%
Cotton -4.97%
Feeder Cattle +1.72%
Lean Hogs +0.50%
Lumber -0.30%
Orange Juice +1.36%
Soybean Meal -4.91%
Soybeans -3.50%
Sugar #11 +4.82%
Wheat -2.78%
White Sugar -2.94%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Index Returns

indexperformance.2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Top winners and losers

EXIDEIND +11.25%
ADANIENT +13.99%
ADANIPORTS +19.08%
JPASSOCIAT -2.54%
TATAGLOBAL -1.90%
FEDERALBNK -1.60%
The Adani’s are crushing it right now. Go Modi!

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +5.68%
NIFTYBEES +3.52%
INFRABEES +2.45%
PSUBNKBEES +2.31%
BANKBEES +0.14%
GOLDBEES -0.79%
Yellow metal turned red…

Investment Theme Performance

IT went out of favor again. Otherwise, pretty much all other investment strategies performed well.

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Yield curve

Yields continued to compress…

yield Curve.2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Nifty OI

A lot has been said about 8000 calls, but look at the action in 8200 and 8400 calls!

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-06-27.2014-07-04

Thought for the weekend

Take a picture of this. Take a picture of that. Point the phone at this. Let the phone listen to that. The technology exists to capture anything and turn it into more. More information. A transaction. A conversation.
 
Say it. Take a photo of it. Type it. Scan it. Whatever. Now, it’s not just websites that give hyperlinks. Everything in the physical world is now a hyperlink too.

Source: The World Is A Hyperlink

Weekly Recap: Single-Variable Analysis

Equities

world.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

The Nifty ended flat for the week.

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.72%
CAC(FRA) -2.30%
UKX(GBR) -0.99%
NKY(JPN) -1.66%
SPX(USA) -0.07%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.05%
INMEX(MEX) -1.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.57%
XU030(TUR) -0.10%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.82%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.49%
NIFTY(IND) -0.04%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.60%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.48%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.19%
Ethanol +1.34%
Heating Oil -1.65%
Natural Gas -2.05%
RBOB Gasoline -0.79%
WTI Crude Oil -1.44%
Metals
Copper +0.96%
Gold 100oz +0.05%
Palladium +2.27%
Platinum +1.59%
Silver 5000oz -0.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.42% USDJPY:-0.71%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.18%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.23%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.09%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.82%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.78%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.12%
USDINR(IND) -0.17%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.16%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.88%
Agricultural
Cattle +3.71%
Cocoa +1.17%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.76%
Corn -1.94%
Cotton -8.32%
Feeder Cattle +3.80%
Lean Hogs +2.27%
Lumber +3.05%
Orange Juice -9.38%
Soybean Meal +3.00%
Soybeans +1.71%
Sugar #11 -5.08%
Wheat -0.21%
White Sugar -2.30%

Nifty heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Index returns

indexperformance.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Top winners and losers

FEDERALBNK +6.45%
DIVISLAB +8.55%
BOSCHLTD +9.92%
MCDOWELL-N -7.08%
KOTAKBANK -6.96%
IDEA -6.01%
A mixed bag, but Bosch was on fire this week!

ETFs

BANKBEES +2.90%
JUNIORBEES +1.34%
PSUBNKBEES +0.04%
NIFTYBEES -0.18%
GOLDBEES -0.33%
INFRABEES -4.78%
Banks got back on the saddle…

Investment Theme Performance

Sector Performance

sectorperformance.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.JUL.2014-06-20.2014-06-27

Thought for the Weekend

The behavior of markets or economies simply can’t be explained by looking at just one thing. conomies and markets are extremely complex. They have a variety of different inputs, including earnings, interest rates, psychology, economic activity, fund flows, taxes, sentiment, momentum, geopolitics, etc. The relevant significance of all of these inputs varies over time.

Source: When Correlations Lie

Related: Musings on stock-market forecasts