Top 5 Investing Mistakes

1903 stock certificate of the Baltimore and Oh...

Image via Wikipedia

I missed the rally in TATAMOTORS today. When a stock that you don’t own takes off (+11% since yesterday), you are filled with blinding rage. I made the #1 mistake of letting my individual preference interfere with my investment decision. I never liked Tata cars – I feel that they fall apart in a year and their interiors are sub-par. But turns out I missed the wood for the trees. So I sat down and wrote up a list of 5 mistakes that investors should avoid:

  1. Getting confused between the company’s product and its stock. Very often, you may love the product the company makes. You may love the XUV 500, but that’s not a good reason in itself to own M&M. You may hate Airtel’s service, but that’s not a good reason in itself not to own BHARTIARTL.
  2. Getting caught up in a fad without thinking through the economics. The market goes through periods where everybody is talking up one sector. I have seen infatuation with infrastructure stocks, real estate, FMCG, oil & gas all come and go. The only thing that is guaranteed with infatuation is a nasty hangover. Don’t only focus on the sector du jour. Focus on revenue growth, profitability and valuation of companies across sectors.
  3. Hanging on to your losers. We all make mistakes. But hoping for a miracle that will somehow turn a position that is down 10% is stupidity. You should have a stop-loss, or better yet, a trailing stop. Let the losers go.
  4. Letting go of your winners. This is the corollary to #3. Why sell a stock that’s on a hot streak. Own it till the rally exhausts itself. If you have a trailing stop setup, the exit automatically takes care of itself.
  5. Getting confused between trading and investing. My sincerest advice is to leave intra-day trading to computers. High Frequency Trading (HFT) has pretty much taken over most exchanges in the world, driving down holding periods to seconds (on an average, the holding period of a stock in the US is around 22 seconds.) You cannot compete with the machines. Your “short term” should at least be a month. This allows you to do your homework and focus on the total return of your portfolio.

And for those who owned TATAMOTORS before the results, good job!

Questions? Email me: abhi@stockviz.biz

Time to let the Maharaja die?

image

There comes a time in every Government run business where tough choices can no longer be avoided. Has time come to bury Air India?

Why does a piss poor country like India need a publicly financed airline when there are plenty of private players who are more than capable of filling in?

 

image

 

 

 

We spend more on keeping Air India alive than we spend on Rural Infrastructure. Where are our priorities?

 

 

 

 

image

 

 

We seem to think that Rs. 22 a day is enough for a person to live in rural India. But nobody questions as to why every Indian is expected to take on Rs. 577 of AI’s debt?

 

 

 

 

Given the succession of scams, it appears that we have developed a high tolerance to our government flushing our tax dollars down the drain. To paraphrase the French: The Maharaja is Dead, Long Live the Maharaja. Shut down Air India.

The Dividend Announcers Club

We love dividends at StockViz. In fact, if dividend were to be a girl (or a boy), we would’ve sent her a box of chocolates today. We are constantly on the lookout for new companies that announce dividends. There have been none so far this year, but here’s a handy chart to give you an idea of the number new dividend announcers by year

image

When a company announces dividends, we take it as a sign of confidence from management that it can fund its growth through internal cashflows and has some left over to pay out as dividends.

You can use our screener to hunt for these gems and more!

The market loves Valentine’s day

We are getting into the Valentine Day’s mood here at StockViz. We did a quick lookup up of the market over the last few years and guess what we found? On an average, the Nifty is up 1.3% on Valentine’s day! The biggest V-day was on Feb 14, 2008: +5.1%

image

Good luck for tomorrow!

Après American, le déluge?

108860515962717181_ryS04N2q_fThe Wall Street Journal has a thought provoking article by Mr. Kagan – a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. The key take away are:

  • International order is not an evolution; it is an imposition
  • Democratic progress and liberal economics have been and can be reversed and undone.
  • The better idea doesn’t have to win just because it is a better idea. It requires great powers to champion it.
  • In a genuinely post-American world, the balance would shift toward the great-power autocracies.
  • The move from American-dominated oceans to collective policing by several great powers could be a recipe for competition and conflict rather than for a liberal economic order.
  • Rough parity among powerful nations is a source of uncertainty that leads to miscalculation. Conflicts erupt as a result of fluctuations in the delicate power equation.

Read the whole thing here. It would be time well spent.