Analysis: CUMMINSIND

Today’s pick is CUMMINSIND [stockquote]CUMMINSIND[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a very quick up-move which experienced resistance around Rs. 500 levels. After many trials to break free, the stock traced down 20% to find the trend-line for support in June. Since then, the stock has been on an up-move and has seen a constant support from the trend-line. It saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 542 in end December. In the last three months, the stock has moved -5% vs. +6% of the Nifty’s.

CUMMINSIND technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory and are suggesting a short-term bullish price action. The stock is close to the lower Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bullish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction, although the stagnating histograms level are suggesting a trend reversal. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

CUMMINSIND correlation chart

CUMMINSIND’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

CUMMINSIND volatility chart

CUMMINSIND has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Buy. A longer term watch is suggested, a call could be taken on the basis of spreading out of GMMA lines. To manage your risks we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case trend-reversal were to take place.

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Preetam’s List

Market Roundup: Dow +0.46% to 13712. S&P +0.44% to 1493. Gold +0.09% to $1693. London -0.03%. Germany -0.68%. France -0.59%.

FIIs began playing an interesting derivatives strategy called ‘covered call and protective put’ last week. They initiated the strategy when Nifty futures traded around 6050-6070, hoping the index would rise to 6100 or slightly above that level till the RBI’s policy declaration on January 29. The markets have priced in a 25-basis points cut, but analysts say indices could correct by 5-7% if the central bank does not cut rates. (ET)

Faced with weak revenue and a rising budget deficit, the government hopes to raise as much as $5.5 billion selling equity in seven state companies before the end of March. It plans to offer a 10% stake in Oil India [stockquote]OIL[/stockquote]valued at about $600 million, 9.5% of power producer NTPC Ltd [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote]. for about $2.3 billion, and 9.33% of MMTC Ltd.[stockquote]MMTC[/stockquote], India’s largest gold importer, for about $1 billion. (WSJ)

When the Jet Airways [stockquote]JETAIRWAYS[/stockquote] and ETIHAD are at the brink of a collaboration, Indian budget carrier IndiGo is in talks for an alliance with U.K. carrier British Airways. An operating alliance with an international carrier could give the carrier partial access to international destinations in Europe, without adding to its costs. . (WSJ)

Stock markets are supposed to reflect market sentiment. Typically, a buoyant stock market means there are strong proclivities towards growth. But the 2012 picture is quite different going by what has happened around the globe. Global conditions have been weak with uncertain future signals – fiscal cliff, the possible collapse of the Euro zone, stagnation in India and a downturn in China. Here is a take on why it happened? (ET)

Japan shares declined, with the Nikkei (NKY) headed for its first three-day decline since elections were called, as the yen climbed after the Bank of Japan said it will wait a year to add open-ended stimulus. In addition, Japan’s central bank yesterday agreed to set a 2 percent inflation target urged by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. (Bloomberg)

 

All the best!

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Analysis: CAIRN

Today’s pick is CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a rush to Rs. 400. The momentum exhausted and left the stock plunging to Rs. 300 levels by May. The stock tested this support level quite many times since then and has just started moving up after breaking out of the pennant in late December. In the last three months, the stock has not moved at all vs. +6% move of the Nifty’s.

CAIRN technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are close to the over-bought territory but are not showing any bias.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Although decreasing histogram levels are pointing to an imminent short-term bearish move. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

CAIRN correlation chart

CAIRN’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

CAIRN volaitility chart

CAIRN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Life insurance corporation of India bought Rs 1,291 Crore worth of shares on 3rd Jan in an insider trade instance.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A Long-term call could be taken once the GMMA lines start to spread and give out a positive cue. It will be beneficial to have trailing stop-losses in place, in order to book profits if a trend-reversal were to take place.

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Preetam’s List

Market Roundup: US markets were closed on Monday. Gold +0.03% to $1691. London+0.43%. Germany +0.61%. France +0.57%. Asian markets trading flat.

India on Monday raised the import duty on gold to 6% from 4%, stepping up efforts to curb the import of the yellow metal. Government also proposed to link gold exchange-traded funds or ETFs and the gold deposit schemes of banks to encourage investors to use existing gold stock in the domestic market. This step will help country to lower the current-account deficit. [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote] (MINT)

Housing Development Finance Corporation [stockquote]HDFC[/stockquote] may have missed analysts’ estimates, but a 16% year-on-year rise in its net profit in the quarter to December 2012 was backed by a spurt in loan growth, mostly from the retail segment, and its robust asset quality. Loan growth has been strong, with the individual loan book growing by 31% from a year ago, after adding the loans sold. (ET)

Spanish exports fell 0.6 percent in November from the same month the previous year, when they had risen 7.4 percent. Officials predict the euro-area’s fourth-biggest economy faces a further slump this year at a time when the government will struggle to meet its budget goals. It is expected that the toll on economic output may have kept as many as 6 million people out of work. Data expected on Thursday. (Bloomberg)

Total loans restructured by Indian banks under the so-called corporate debt restructuring (CDR) route crossed Rs.2 trillion in December. In the October-December quarter, banks restructured Rs.24,584 crore of loans, up from Rs.19,544 crore they recast in the previous quarter, to reach Rs.2.12 trillion. Many analysts suspect that 25-30% of the restructured loans may turn bad unless there is a significant revival in the economy. (MINT)

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Analysis: HDFCBANK (HDB)

Today’s pick is HDFCBANK [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an up-move for most part of the year and it experienced the 52 weeks high of Rs. 700 in November. Since then the stock has been in a downward sloping flag formation. In the last three months, the stock has moved +4% vs. +7% of the Nifty’s.

HDFCBANK technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory and are suggesting a short-term bullish price action. The stock is close to the lower Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bullish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

HDFCBANK correlation chart

HDFCBANK’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.71 is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be closely replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

HDFCBANK volatility chart

HDFCBANK has a historical volatility in the range of 1.0 to 4.0. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Analysts have positive expectations regarding this stock. Less than expected earnings might hit the street expectations in the coming reviews and might impact the stock as well.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A break-out of the flag in either direction will trigger a longer-term call.

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