Invest Without Emotions
Abhishek, our Chief Technical Analyst, will start blogging about his own personal investments from today. He has seeded his account with Rs. 20,000/- a sum that most retail investors get started with. The idea is to show how you can use the tools provided by StockViz to:
Wish him good luck!
Follow his posts here.
Today’s pick is INFY [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]. The stock was moving in a range till March since starting of the year. It then fell sharply to Rs. 2,400 levels in April after moving in range till July the stock again fell to Rs. 2,200 levels. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend. In the last three months, the stock has moved +16% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.
Oscillator RSI is hovering in the over-bought territory whereas CMO is in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not suggesting any directional move. However, short-term technical just saw 9×4 bearish cross-over.
The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bearish manner. However, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very distant from each other, giving out an extremely bullish sign for the scrip.
INFY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.51 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]
INFY has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the higher end of the range.
Majority of analysts are suggesting a hold for this stock given the current condition of the IT industry.
Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we suggest a buy given the well spread out GMMA lines. However, we recommend that investors tread with caution given that the spread in the GMMA lines has occurred due to the +20% spike seen at the most recent earnings announcement. Also, for risk management we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case trend-reversal were to take place.
A flat week for our portfolio, we were down 0.2%.
As the NIFTY was down 0.88% over the week, our momentum portfolio was down only 0.2% outperforming NIFTY by over half a percentage. Continuing the process of following a systematic repeatable process, with appropriate risk management steps came in real handy.
Talk to us about our Quantitative Portfolio Strategy Execution.
The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.88% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHARTIARTL (-8.63%), TATAMOTORS (-6.43%) and LT (-4.84%).
And the biggest winners were AXISBANK (+8.90%), COALINDIA (+4.59%) and CIPLA (+4.15%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 32 vs 18
Gold: -0.64%, Banks: +0.42%. Infrastructure: -3.87%,
Net FII flows for the week: $885.64 mm (Equity) and $225.01 mm (Debt)
Today’s pick is BIOCON [stockquote]BIOCON[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a sharp up-trend taking the stock up to Rs. 300. It then started its downward move to fall to Rs. 220 levels by mid-May. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend and saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 320 level in November. The stock however underwent flag formation which broke down early January, and the stock is currently tracing back the losses. In the last three months, the stock has moved +1% vs. +6% of the Nifty’s.
Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not suggesting any directional move. However, short-term technical just saw 4×9 bullish cross-over.
The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line, giving out a bullish signal for the stock. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are moving very close to each other and hence are not giving any directional bias for the stock.
BIOCON’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.60 which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]
BIOCON has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.
Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term BUY. For the long-term, we will have to wait for the GMMA lines to spread out to give any direction for future. However, for risk management we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case trend-reversal were to take place.
