StockViz – Page 231 – Invest Without Emotions

Analysis: PETRONET

Abhishek February 21, 2013February 21, 2013

Today’s pick is PETRONET [stockquote]PETRONET[/stockquote]. The stock saw a double top in the starting of the year around Rs 175 levels, and slipped down to find support at Rs. 125 levels by June. It then started moving up and found resistance again around the same levels, and is currently withdrawing back. In the last three months, the stock has moved -1% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading at the top of Bollinger band giving a short-term bearish bias. Short-term technicals saw a 4×9 and 4×18 bullish cross-over accompanied with a Dragonfly bullish doji.

The MACD line has penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner a couple of days ago. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen inverted in a bearish manner given the downward movement of the stock.

PETRONET’s average correlation with the Nifty is +0.49 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

PETRONET has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.9. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term we suggest to take a call based upon the expansion of the long-term GMMA lines and stocks behavior around its resistance levels. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Categories Your Money Tags PETRONET, technical analysis

Live Portfolio trades for Feb/20

Abhishek February 20, 2013February 20, 2013

Till now you all have seen how the portfolio was getting rejigged because of trailing stop-losses being hit for the losers. But today I sold FKONCO [stockquote]FKONCO[/stockquote] at a profit of around 11% over a 3 trading days time .

I used the same proceeds to get long in GEOMETRIC [stockquote]GEOMETRIC[/stockquote]. Although, given the technicals I would have entered the trade at the start of the day itself, but due to no cash, had to wait to take any position. The MACD crossover happening and the stock bouncing back of its 3 months support line, it provided a good opportunity for a trade.

The portfolio currently looks like this.

Lets hope for the best.

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Categories Your Money Tags live portfolio

Analysis: COLPAL

Abhishek February 20, 2013February 20, 2013

Today’s pick is COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend for most part of the year. The stock experienced its 52 week high of Rs. 1,580 in December but since then the stock has been moving downwards retracing the gains. In the last three months, the stock has moved +2% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

Oscillator RSI and CMO are close to the over-sold territory. The stock is trading in the middle of a narrowing Bollinger band giving no directional bias.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen inverted in a bearish manner given the downward movement of the stock.

COLPAL’s average correlation with the Nifty is +0.26 which is positive but weak. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

COLPAL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range and hence not a concern for the traders.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term we suggest to take a call based upon the expansion of the long-term GMMA lines. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Categories Your Money Tags COLPAL, technical analysis

Live Portfolio trades for Feb/19

Abhishek February 19, 2013February 19, 2013

When stocks behave oddly than they should have over a 5 days time, its better to get rid of them even though they are making loss. This strategy doesn’t hold good for long only investor, because they don’t have to actively manage their portfolio.

Hence, UCOBANK [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote] that was stuck in the portfolio since long needed a push out. The stock in the holding period made a –5% return. Although, selling this stock provided us opportunity to hold another stock where the technicals are supporting a buy.

The RSI and CMO levels are confirming an up-move, which is being pushed further ahead by the bullish penetration of the signal line by the MACD line.

Hopefully, the technicals will prove themselves again as they did for FKONCO, which is up 11% since I included in the portfolio this Friday.

The portfolio currently looks as follows.

Cheers!

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Categories Your Money Tags live portfolio

Analysis: GOLDBEES

Abhishek February 19, 2013February 19, 2013

Today’s pick is GOLDBEES [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote]. The ETF started the year with an uptrend to reach 52 weeks high of Rs. 3,100 levels. This level proved to be a resistance, and the ETF saw a formation of double top by the end of November. Since then the ETF is in a continuous down-trend. In the last three months, the ETF has moved -7% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

Oscillator RSI and CMO have been trading close to the over-sold territory since long, and are not giving any directional bias. The ETF is trading in the lower end of a very compact Bollinger band giving no directional bias. Short-term technical just saw 9×4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other, unable to give any outlook. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are running close to each other and are not giving out any directional bias.

GOLDBEES’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.02 which is negative. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

GOLDBEES has a historical volatility in the range of 0.1 to 0.4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term we could take a call based on the ETF’s behavior around Rs.2,700 support levels.