Weekly Recap: Roller Coaster Investing

world.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.79%
CAC(FRA) -1.31%
UKX(GBR) -2.88%
NKY(JPN) -0.52%
SPX(USA) -2.03%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.27%
INMEX(MEX) -2.26%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.14%
XU030(TUR) -4.70%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.06%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.87%
NIFTY(IND) -1.03%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.30%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.54%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -4.06%
RBOB Gasoline -4.46%
Brent Crude Oil -4.02%
Heating Oil -1.74%
WTI Crude Oil -5.35%
Natural Gas -2.77%
Metals
Gold 100oz -3.05%
Palladium +1.49%
Platinum -1.18%
Silver 5000oz -1.35%
Copper -4.80%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.16% USDJPY:-0.19%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.70%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.26%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.28%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.95%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.90%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.83%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.53%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -4.47%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.56%
Corn -6.67%
Cotton +0.03%
Wheat -7.62%
White Sugar -3.08%
Orange Juice +2.83%
Feeder Cattle -2.46%
Cattle -2.62%
Cocoa -3.88%
Lean Hogs +2.41%
Lumber -4.10%
Soybean Meal -1.83%
Soybeans -2.34%
Sugar #11 -5.94%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.39%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.72%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.51%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.56%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.39%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.14%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +7.87%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.57%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.59%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.01%
An uneasy week that saw most indices weak. The entire commodity complex came crashing down. Gold, copper, silver, oil, grains… pretty much every commodity was down.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.58% 73/62
2 +0.74% 69/66
3 +8.28% 69/66
4 -0.03% 71/63
5 +1.95% 70/66
6 +0.73% 65/70
7 +0.40% 72/63
8 +1.34% 70/65
9 -0.35% 63/72
10 (mega) +0.01% 70/65
Looks like there was an outlier that bumped up a microcap stock…

Top Winners and Losers

INFY +8.56%
ABIRLANUVO +8.56%
IBULHSGFIN +8.86%
LUPIN -15.25%
SUNPHARMA -11.76%
CONCOR -11.74%
Sunpharma’s warning, Lupin’s disappointment and Infy’s optimism…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +1.50%
JUNIORBEES -0.66%
NIFTYBEES -1.12%
CPSEETF -2.56%
PSUBNKBEES -2.76%
BANKBEES -2.94%
GOLDBEES -3.13%
Gold got shellacked…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.02 +0.12%
5 10 -0.04 +0.35%
10 15 -0.01 +0.22%
15 20 -0.02 +0.34%
20 30 -0.02 +0.36%
The long end of the curve was in the green after a long time…

Investment Theme Performance

A mixed bag. Momentum ended flat as Kitex got whacked…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Big money is in buying and holding great businesses acquired at reasonable valuations. Owning such businesses will produce gut-wrenching roller coaster rides which the investor has to have the willingness to take. They can’t avoid those rides by jumping out and trying to get back in, and attempts to do so are likely to be unsuccessful. So, the best strategy is to stay put and bear it.

Source: Sanjay Bakshi

Index Update 25.07.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-07-24 png

index momentum best 50 2015-07-24 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-07-24 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-07-24 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-07-24 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from May 18, 2015 through July 24, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO LONG
6.90
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK SHORT
9.34
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES SHORT
27.83
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
0.49
2015-Jul-22
CNX ENERGY LONG
25.60
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
8.93
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA SHORT
46.63
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
88.00
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
19.72
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL SHORT
60.84
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC SHORT
0.95
2015-Jul-16
CNX NIFTY LONG
5.28
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
11.60
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
23.77
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK SHORT
39.09
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY LONG
90.87
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
6.07
2015-Mar-03
Index momentum seems to have leveled off. Are we seeing a near-term top? NIFTY is still 5% below its April top…

Correlation Update 25.07.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Beware of Single Factor Investing

Factors are short-cuts

Analyzing financial statements is a cumbersome process for most retail investors. Many don’t have the time, patience or expertise to dig through balance-sheets, income and cashflow statements. Most don’t find joy in reflecting on the many footnotes that accompany such statements. Here lies the attraction of single-factor investing.

Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is one such factor. We recently saw how there was no great advantage in investing in mutual funds that use PE to switch between debt and equity. It is a poor market timing indicator even when practiced by professional fund managers.

The ‘E’ in PE

The ‘earnings’ line-item is an accounting driven artifact that is easily gamed and has very little relationship with the company’s value. Here’s what Michael J. Mauboussin has to say about earnings, see appendix for the full note:

… an increase or decrease in earnings does not provide a clear picture of the corresponding increase or decrease in shareholder value. This is because the earnings figure does not reflect the company’s level of risk, does not take into account the investments needed for anticipated growth, and is subject to a wide variety of accounting conventions. Such accounting conventions do not ordinarily affect cash flow and hence do not affect a company’s value.

Even Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted P/E (or “CAPE”) has little predictive value in the short term. Shiller CAPE shows its strongest correlation to nominal returns over an 8-year time horizon, and is actually most predictive of real returns over an *18* year time horizon. (Kitces)

Some investors also look at Price to Book and Return on Capital Employed. These ratios provide a convenient short-hand but are far from adequate in forecasting future earnings.

Besides what does the ratio of total assets to total liabilities measure anyway? Intangibles can’t be quantified. Are inventories adjusted to current market prices? Is the loan loss reserve adequate?

Bottom line: Assets are often overstated and liabilities understated. (Fool)

What does “capital employed” mean anyway?

  1. No general agreement exists on how capital employed should be calculated, on whether initial or average capital employed should be used or on how profit should be defined.
  2. Often, accounting profit rather than cash flow is used as the basis of evaluation.
  3. It ignores the time value of money.

Take away

Every style of investing – value, momentum or factor – depends on finding historical patterns and extending them into the future.

Every valuation metric comes with a “yes, but…”

No single factor is a predictor of future returns.

Appendix

The Treasure in Treasury Operations

Treasury Operations of Banks

First the Wikipedia definition: Treasury management (or treasury operations) includes management of an enterprise’s holdings, with the ultimate goal of managing the firm’s liquidity and mitigating its operational, financial and reputational risk. Treasury Management includes a firm’s collections, disbursements, concentration, investment and funding activities. In larger firms, it may also include trading in bonds, currencies, financial derivatives and the associated financial risk management.

For a bank, this means asset/liability management, hedging interest rate risk, managing reserve and capital requirements, etc. It is also something banks provide as a value added service for their clients.

Revenue from Treasury Operations

Banks break out segment revenues that include revenue derived from treasury operations. However, they don’t carve out how much of it was proprietary trading. This is the average quarterly revenue from treasury operations since June 2014 (in Rs. Cr.) of major Indian banks:

bank.treasury.revenue

In fact, for a few of them, revenue from treasury operations exceed from those from retail banking.

bank.treasury.retail.revenue

The need for more disclosure

The revenue from treasury ops is a black box. If most of that revenue is derived from prop trading, then investors need better disclosure of the risks that were taken. Recently, YESBANK got pummeled on a UBS report that raised doubts over their exposure to stressed companies. As a retail investor, we really don’t have a clue about the risks involved in holding equity in what could turn out to be a hedge fund in bank’s clothing.