Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: The Ultimate Equalizer

world.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.42%
CAC(FRA) +1.88%
UKX(GBR) +1.54%
NKY(JPN) -0.15%
SPX(USA) +2.50%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.00%
INMEX(MEX) +4.34%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.43%
XU030(TUR) -4.83%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) -4.19%
NIFTY(IND) -1.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) +6.54%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.40%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +10.69%
Natural Gas -3.56%
Heating Oil +8.80%
Ethanol +3.84%
RBOB Gasoline +9.52%
WTI Crude Oil +9.96%
Metals
Copper +3.17%
Gold 100oz -3.40%
Platinum -1.20%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Palladium +1.49%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.18% USDJPY:+1.44%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.40%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.98%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.87%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.19%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.61%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.10%
USDINR(IND) -0.27%
USDRUB(RUS) -4.59%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.34%
Agricultural
Cotton +3.32%
Feeder Cattle -5.77%
Lean Hogs -5.17%
Cocoa +2.84%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.78%
Orange Juice -2.21%
Soybean Meal -0.30%
Sugar #11 -1.56%
White Sugar -0.23%
Coffee (Arabica) +2.84%
Corn +4.05%
Lumber -1.77%
Soybeans +1.33%
Wheat +4.92%
Cattle +0.87%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.23%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.20%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.16%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.37%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.91%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.10%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -7.98%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.66%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.02%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.05%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.79%
Looks like the dollar rally stalled out and the energy complex got a huge boost. US and European markets ended in the green. Credit narrowed as well.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.85% 69/63
2 -0.11% 62/70
3 +0.28% 68/64
4 -0.64% 66/65
5 -0.72% 68/64
6 -0.69% 67/65
7 -1.03% 55/76
8 -0.74% 67/65
9 -2.18% 64/68
10 (mega) -2.59% 64/68
The market sank as a whole…

Top Winners and Losers

HCLTECH +9.09%
CAIRN +9.13%
UPL +16.29%
CROMPGREAV -16.12%
ADANIPORTS -11.98%
HINDPETRO -11.30%
Oil prices staged a smart bounce back: CAIRN #winning, HPCL #loser.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES -0.17%
GOLDBEES -1.12%
CPSEETF -1.44%
NIFTYBEES -1.66%
JUNIORBEES -1.86%
BANKBEES -5.38%
PSUBNKBEES -9.61%
Bank results were a splash of cold water on a market driven by hopium. Will the budget rescue?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-30.2015-02-06

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.02 +0.15%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.07 +0.14%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.11 +0.36%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.11 +0.79%
Nothing to do but to clip that coupon and hit the links…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

One of the hardest parts about investing is that no matter what it is that you buy there will almost certainly be another investor, asset class, sector, fund or security that will be outperforming you at any given point in time. Behavior is the ultimate equalizer in the markets. Most investors will always prefer to invest based on a narratives over evidence.

Source: @awealthofcs

Correlation Update 07.02.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Multinationals Listed in India

Multinational companies (MNCs) listed in India, like Bosch, Colgate, etc, are generally considered to be well managed, cash-rich businesses. Lets take a look at their past performance and some actively managed funds that focus on them. It may be worth your while to add some MNC goodness to your portfolio.

MNCs vs. Top 100

Our first stop is first check if MNCs indeed outperform the market. For this, lets compare the CNX MNC index to the CNX 100 index.

Between 2005-01-03 and 2015-02-02, CNX MNC has returned a cumulative 453.68% with an IRR of 18.49% vs. CNX 100’s cumulative return of 318.85% and an IRR of 15.26%. (permalink) Apart from a brief period of under-performance between 2007 and 2008, MNCs have generally done better than the rest of the market.

MNCs vs. Midcaps

Between 2010-01-04 and 2015-02-02, CNX MNC has returned a cumulative 108.14% with an IRR of 15.31% vs. BSE MID CAP’s cumulative return of 58.41% and an IRR of 9.47%. (permalink) #winning

MNC funds

There are a couple of funds, one from UTI and the other from Birla Sun Life that focus purely on MNCs. Here’s how the UTI fund has performed:

Between 2006-04-03 and 2015-02-02, UTI – MNC Fund has returned a cumulative 283.13% with an IRR of 16.41% vs. CNX MNC’s cumulative return of 182.80% and an IRR of 12.10%. (permalink)

Between the two of them, UTI’s fund’s IRR of 37.12% is eclipsed by BSL’s 41.52% between 2013-01-02 and 2015-02-02 (a shorter time-period of comparison.) (permalink)

But irrespective of which fund you choose, the excess returns cannot be ignored. And of course, past-performance is not indicative of the future.

Monthly Recap: The Perfect Investor

world.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +9.06%
CAC(FRA) +7.76%
UKX(GBR) +2.79%
NKY(JPN) +1.28%
SPX(USA) -3.90%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.19%
INMEX(MEX) -6.09%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -14.70%
XU030(TUR) +3.79%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.20%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.75%
NIFTY(IND) +6.35%
INDEXCF(RUS) +17.98%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.60%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -9.59%
Brent Crude Oil -6.64%
Ethanol -15.22%
WTI Crude Oil -9.49%
Natural Gas -9.44%
RBOB Gasoline +2.30%
Metals
Copper -10.92%
Gold 100oz +7.99%
Platinum +2.27%
Palladium -3.38%
Silver 5000oz +9.55%

Currencies

USDEUR:+7.28% USDJPY:-1.96%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.54%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.25%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.55%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.94%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.73%
USDINR(IND) -1.86%
USDRUB(RUS) +19.40%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.79%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.55%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.53%
Lumber -2.74%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
White Sugar -2.07%
Soybeans -5.88%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.31%
Corn -7.56%
Feeder Cattle -6.25%
Wheat -14.73%
Cattle -6.55%
Cotton -2.45%
Lean Hogs -17.35%
Orange Juice +0.07%
Sugar #11 +1.44%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.75%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.52%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.54%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.51%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.89%
Markit iTraxx Europe -7.13%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -36.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.64%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.88%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.24%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.87%
We certainly started the party with a bang: Euro QE, Swiss abandon, Rajan rate-cut… Oh my!

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.90% 68/66
2 +2.62% 79/54
3 +0.33% 73/60
4 +2.82% 81/52
5 +4.56% 72/61
6 +3.52% 81/52
7 +7.85% 77/56
8 +5.76% 76/57
9 +5.68% 69/64
10 (mega) +8.38% 69/65
Large caps did good. Midcaps not so much.

Top Winners and Losers

HINDUNILVR +22.69%
DLF +23.65%
ADANIENT +28.99%
M&MFIN -22.56%
PETRONET -13.76%
PNB -13.44%
DLF – looks like the market likes the EMI scheme. M&MFIN and PNB got shellacked because of poor shows at earnings parade. The Adanis continued to entertain…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +7.79%
NIFTYBEES +6.68%
BANKBEES +5.84%
JUNIORBEES +5.46%
GOLDBEES +4.65%
CPSEETF -0.12%
PSUBNKBEES -3.71%
Had gold found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.33 +0.74%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.92 +0.94%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.18 +1.48%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.14 +1.91%
The long bond was a rock-star.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Is there such a thing as a “perfect” value investor? Bob Goldfarb, chief executive of the legendary Sequoia Fund, was asked by Columbia University professor Louis Lowenstein “to select ten dyed-in-the-wool value investors who all followed the essential edicts of Graham and Dodd.”

Goldfarb came up with nine. For a nine-year period from 2006 through 2014, the average return of the eight funds that survived to the end was 6.70% vs. the S&P 500 Index’s 7.99%.

Source: Looking Back at James Montier’s “Perfect” Value Investors