Category: Your Money

Coal India–The Perils of Investing in PSUs

Coal India Limited (CIL) is at the receiving end from different quarters. While, on the one hand, it is facing the government’s wrath for failing to fulfill the country’s burgeoning coal demand, minority shareholders, on the other side, are crying foul at the lack of corporate governance standards at CIL and its failure to protect their interests.

clip_image002On Tuesday, the government issued a presidential directive to force CIL to sign fuel supply agreements (FSAs) with power producers to supply as much as 80% of the fuel requirements committed to power plants. Softening the blow, it however, allowed the PSU’s board the freedom to decide on penalty that would be payable in case it breaches the pact.

The presidential diktat was enforced after Independent Directors of CIL’s board, which has been holding discussions for the last few days, put their foot down on committing fuel supplies.

Going by CIL’s current output and ramp-up capabilities, independent clip_image002[5]directors felt it was impossible for the state-run miner to meet supply requirements and it may have to opt for imports which is a costly affair.

Instead, they questioned the lower price paid by the power sector for coal and suggested that CIL should cut down on fuel supplies to the power sector and sell excess coal through e-auction to augment profitability.

Amidst this furor over fuel supplies, investors are clearly not impressed at the way Coal India is being arm-twisted. UK-based hedge fund and CIL shareholder, The Children’s Investment Fund Management (TCI) has threatened arbitration against the Indian government, alleging that the government was going out of its way to help private power producers by pressurizing CIL.

TCI, which holds 1% stake in the monopolistic miner, has charged Coal India of selling the fuel at a price that’s up to 70% lower than the market price, hurting minority shareholders.

clip_image001The country’s powerful lobby comprising of Cyrus Mistry, Anil Ambani and other corporates, who forced the government’s hand on Coal India by knocking on the PM’s door for seeking solution to the power crisis, must be relieved as more than 25,000 MW projects will be kick-started. The demand-supply gap for coal, which stood at 84 million tonnes (MT) during FY 2010-11 is likely to touch 142 MT in FY 2011-12.

While the Prez decree will awaken Coal India from its clip_image001[5]deep slumber and help meet fuel requirements, the government would do well to address some pertinent issues that plague the miner than just issuing diktats. Coal India faces land acquisition problems and delays in environmental clearances due to which several projects have missed deadlines while domestic prices are yet to align with international rates, hurting the company’s profits. To make matters worse, the coal behemoth has almost been headless, critically hampering its decision-making. At present additional secretary in the ministry Zohra Chatterjee is filling the post.

If Coal India is to retain its tag as the darling of D-Street (thanks to its blockbuster listing), the government would do well to address these ‘bitter truths’ instead of just administering ‘bitter pills’.


[stockquote]COALINDIA[/stockquote]

RBI pulls plug on gold loans

Loans

Loans (Photo credit: jferzoco)

As the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. Even in these difficult times, gold loan non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) saw roaring sales and record margins. According to ratings agency ICRA, “`Gold loan companies have reported an estimated compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100% during the last three years, with the portfolios of the top three companies cumulatively exceeding Rs. 410 billion as on Dec. 31, 2011.

Consider this- During the third quarter of the current fiscal, Manappuram Finance [stockquote]MANAPPURAM[/stockquote] more than doubled its net profit from a year ago to Rs. 161.37 crore, loan disbursements surged 86% while assets under management rose 90% to Rs. 12,358.21 crore. Industry leader Muthoot Finance [stockquote]MUTHOOTFIN[/stockquote] posted a 61% growth in net profit to Rs 251 crore, while total income galloped 91% to Rs 1,231crore and assets under management increased by Rs 1,944 crore to Rs 22,885crore.

clip_image001But the honeymoon is over. Fearing risks to banking system and retail investors due to the sharp surge in loan against gold, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightened lending rules saying these companies can’t lend more than 60% of the value of gold jewelry. It also directed them to maintain a minimum tier-1 capital of 12% by April 2014 while depriving them of granting loans against bullion, primary gold and gold coins.

clip_image001[6]RBI’s moves are not without reason. The sharp surge in gold prices has resulted in an equally sharp increase in demand for gold loans, especially in rural areas. Since these NBFCs depend heavily on public funds like bank loans and non-convertible debentures, any reversal in gold prices will not only catch NBFCs off guard but may also pose a systemic threat, affecting banks and retail investors.

While the prudential norms has found favour with experts who believe it would improve the sector’s asset quality in the long-run and help them absorb any sharp volatility in gold prices, they maintain that the lower loan-to-value- (LTV) ratio will moderate disbursement volumes and result in business clip_image001[8]shifting to unorganized players like moneylenders who can still extend loans at higher LTV ratios.

Gold NBFCs, which are used to high profit margins, may have to reduce interest rates to prevent borrowers from shifting elsewhere, which will take the sheen out of their high flying business. Business growth is likely to fall from 80 per cent per annum to 20-25 per cent per annum and return on assets (RoA)may moderate from the current high level of 4.5 per cent to 2.5-3.0 per cent.

 

Weekly Recap

customNIFTY 50.2012-03-19.2012-03-23

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.61% for the week.

Biggest losers were RPOWER(-6.84%), JINDALSTEL(-6.82%) and TATAPOWER(-6.04%). And the biggest winners were SUNPHARMA(6.89%), CAIRN(4.41%) and HINDUNILVR(3.09%)
Decliners eclipsed advancers 32 vs 18

Gold: 1.29%, Infrastructure: -1.04% and Banks: -1.13%

Stocks in the news this week

Satyam, Tech Mahindra merger 
RBI guidelines on gold lending
Coal scam
Daily news summaries are here.

Don’t forget to register for the technical analysis tutorial series: A Traders Guide to StockViz

Gold glitters, gives India the jitters

Too much of anything is bad. India’s unending appetite for gold is also proving to be its nemesis.

clip_image001Trade deficit for 2011-12 (April-January) at $ 148.7 billion was 40.4 per cent higher than $ 105.9 billion in 2010-11 (April- January). While higher oil import bill is largely a known factor, the sharp increase in import of gold and silver has intensified pressure on trade deficit (exports minus imports).

From April to December during the current fiscal (2011-12), imports of gold and silver surged by 53.8% to $45.5 billion. Higher gold imports increases the country’s external financing needs as it would require more foreign exchange to foot the import bill. The share of gold and silver in import basket has risen from 9.3% in 2000-01 to 13.3% in the first half of 2011-12.

clip_image001[7]

Despite record high prices, India was largest consumer of gold in 2011 with total demand of 933.4 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council, down only moderately from 1,000 tonnes in 2010. Apart from traditional factors, high inflation has prompted many investors to switch to gold from financial savings.

clip_image001[17]The fallout of this buying binge by bullion buffs has forced Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee to double the basic customs duty on gold bars to 4%, revising the cost upwards by up to Rs 1,040 per 10 grams. This is the second increase in the last two months to moderate demand. Blaming the sharp surge in imports of gold and other precious metals during the first three quarters of the year for driving the current account deficit (CAD), Mukherjee also intends to charge 2% on jewellery purchases of more than Rs 200,000 along with an excise of 1% on non-branded jewellery. CAD stood at 2.9 per cent in 2010-11 and is expected to be around 3.6 per cent this year.

Fearing more pressure in the country’s CAD, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC)’s economic report called for discouraging unproductive imports like gold by making other financial assets like mutual funds and insurance attractive.

clip_image001[19]

But will Indians go beyond gold? In these times of downgrades, defaults and debt crisis, ‘yellow fever’ is only likely to spread further.


[stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote]