Category: Your Money

India Inc lands ‘bailout’ via CDR route

Mascotte Air India / Air India Mascot

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Headwinds from struggling domestic economy as a result of rising inflation, interest rates, lower profitability and weak demand continue to weigh on corporate India. This has severely impaired their ability to service debt and a record number of companies are knocking on the doors of corporate debt restructuring (CDR) cell to recast their loans.

The total number of debt restructuring cases received by the CDR cell increased from 305 (debt aggregating Rs 1,38,600 crore) as on March-end 2011 to 392 (debt aggregating Rs 2,06,493 crore) at the end of March this year.

The total amount of debt approved for recast by the CDR cell was Rs.1,50,515 crore as of March 31, with new debt of Rs.39,601 crore adding to the sticky loan amount in 2011-12, the highest since the CDR cell was launched in 2001.

imageCreditors bring cases to the CDR cell, an informal forum of bankers approved by the Reserve Bank of India, to renegotiate repayment terms with struggling borrowers and help them avert the defaulters tag.

A large number of iron and steel, infrastructure, telecom and textiles companies are in the danger zone. Some of the big-ticket cases that have taken the restructuring route include telecom tower services provider GTL [stockquote]GTLINFRA[/stockquote], shipbuilder Bharati Shipyard [stockquote]BHARTISHIP[/stockquote], Air India, Kingfisher Airlines [stockquote]KFA[/stockquote], Hindustan Construction [stockquote]HCC[/stockquote], Leela Hotel [stockquote]HOTELEELA[/stockquote] and several sugar and steel mills. Jindal Stainless [stockquote]JSL[/stockquote] is the latest entrant to this infamous club. It has approached lenders to reschedule repayments of its over Rs 9,000 crore debt.

Bank loans to large airlines and State Electricity Boards (SEBs) and Discoms (distribution companies) also face the risk of default, though these are currently not under CDR restructuring. Air India’s Rs 22,000 crore CDR and those of SEBs, which is close to Rs.30,000 crore, were restructured outside the cell.

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The slowdown in industrial growth resulted from rising input and borrowing costs, due to which investment and consumption growth moderated in interest-sensitive sectors.

imageWhile a slowing economy hurts the ability of companies to repay their debt, some bankers feel many promoters, who have got their loans restructured, are misusing the corporate debt restructuring (CDR) mechanism by passing on their burden to the lenders.

Amidst such dire situations, the government is only doing more harm to lenders. Last month, the centre directed lenders to rejig Rs 35,000 crore of loans to textile firms, adding more restructuring burden on banks. Ideally, the minimum interest rate to which the coupon is reduced to in a restructuring package is the base rate. The package involves bringing debt service coverage ratio to a respectable level, converting part of loan into equity etc.

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Public sector banks [stockquote]PSUBNKBEES[/stockquote] continued to witness a rise in bad loans during the March quarter due to restructured assets. During the March quarter, SBI [stockquote]SBIN[/stockquote] recast loans worth Rs 5,100 crore against Rs 2,100 crore in the December quarter. Banks have to set aside more money in the form of provisioning on restructured advances, which affects profitability.

The macro environment remains challenging with sluggish business outlook, policy uncertainties, limited access to fund raising avenues for highly leveraged companies and project implementation delays. Clearly, we have not yet seen the worst on bad loans front.

Weekly Recap

NIFTY 50.2012-05-28.2012-06-01

The NIFTY ended on a bearish note, melting down -1.69% for the week.
Biggest losers were TATAMOTORS (-17.05%), RELINFRA (-7.61%) and RANBAXY (-6.58%).
And the biggest winners were TATAPOWER (+4.31%), AMBUJACEM (+4.26%) and HINDALCO (+4.16%).

Decliners eclipsed advancers 32 vs 17
Gold: +0.25%, Infrastructure: +0.99%, Banks: -0.72%.

Macro news is decidedly bearish: global growth, from US to China, is slowing down, domestic car sales are weakening, commodity prices are taking a hit. It’s only a matter of time before Central Banks will respond with a new round of monetary easing. Expect the ECB to do something.

Daily news summaries are here.

India finds itself on a slippery slope

Oil companies raised gasoline (petrol) prices by Rs 6.28 per liter or 11-12% at the retail level, sparking severe outrage from politicians and the so called ‘aam aadmi’. Apart from political rhetoric, it would help to look at the economic implications of fuel price hikes and the entire subsidy mechanism.

imageSince petrol prices are technically decontrolled, the hike will not bring down the fiscal subsidy bill. For that to happen, the paralytic government must get bold, meaning, it has to go out and raise the prices of diesel, LPG, kerosene as oil companies continue to bleed on selling these fuels at below-market prices. Although global crude prices have come off significantly from $125/ barrel mark, the benefits have been offset by the sharp depreciation in the rupee.

But the pressing issue is the entire subsidy sharing mechanism. Global prices of crude oil play a decisive role in the domestic pricing of petroleum products since more than 75 per cent of the country’s crude oil requirement is met through imports. The government subsidizes its refiners (downstream companies like IOC, HPCL and BPCL) to sell fuel below cost, and pushes drillers (upstream companies like ONGC, GAIL and IOC) to foot part of the bill while it bears the rest.

imageOil Marketing Companies (OMCs) had lost a record Rs 1,38,541 crore on selling fuel at government- controlled rates during the last fiscal. While the government will make up 60 per cent or Rs 83,500 crore of the total revenue loss, upstream PSUs will shell out 40% or Rs 55,000 crore as their share of the subsidy burden. Out of the Rs 55,000 crore, ONGC will bear Rs 45,188 crore (82%), Oil India will shell out Rs 5,978 crore (11%) while GAIL will contribute Rs 3,834 crore (7%).

imageThis time around, all OMCs will get full reimbursement which means they will not have to share the subsidy burden. As a result, both IOC and BPCL have reported solid numbers in Q4. Net profit of IOC trebled to Rs 12,670 crore from Rs 3, 905 crore a year ago while BPCL reported a four-fold hike in profits in Jan-Mar quarter at Rs 3,962 crore against Rs 935 crore a year ago.

imageThe ad-hoc subsidy mechanism and the financial jugglery with one oil PSU compensating the other has only worsened India’s fiscal position and the balance sheets of oil firms. It may be politically unfeasible but the sensible thing to do is to eliminate subsidies. While it may push costs and spike inflation, Pranab & co must get rid of price controls and allow oil companies to pass on higher global energy prices to curb wasteful consumption and rationalize energy usage. Cheap energy has discouraged energy saving which can be seen in the sharp spurt in sales of diesel-driven passenger cars.

Simultaneously, supporting measures for the needy—such as well-targeted cash support programme to compensate households for the price increase is easy to implement and understand.

Pussyfooting on this issue will only increase the subsidy burden further even as consumption rises while the rupee depreciates further. This is a potent mixture that can send the macro-economic picture into further tailspin.


[stockquote]IOC[/stockquote] [stockquote]BPCL[/stockquote] [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote] [stockquote]HINDPETRO[/stockquote] [stockquote]GAIL[/stockquote]

Weekly Recap

NIFTY 50.2012-05-21.2012-05-25

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +1.39% for the week.

Biggest losers were SESAGOA (-6.45%), MARUTI (-4.08%) and STER (-4.01%).
And the biggest winners were RANBAXY (+8.95%), RELINFRA (+6.11%) and GAIL (+6.09%).

Advancers lead decliners 29 vs 20
Gold: +0.01%, Infrastructure: -3.93%, Banks: +1.71%.
Daily news summaries are here.

Between Europe blowing up, US economy weakening, China showing cracks and India stagflating the markets have a lot to absorb. Does this mean that the global liquidity tap gets turned on once again: China easing, LTRO part deux, QE3? We live in interesting times…

FCCBs–Is Disaster Lurking?

Las Vegas bail bonds financing

 

Corporate India’s worry lines do not simply end with high input costs, slackening demand, rising credit costs, and low business sentiment. Lured by buoyant share prices, companies went overboard with their fascination for Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) and raised foreign capital to fund their expansion plans from 2005-06 to 2007-08 when the bubble was just about to burst.

Riding on their heady valuations, the conversion price on such bonds was set at a steep premium, about 25-150 per cent higher than the prevailing stock price at the time of issuance and they carried zero or very low coupons.

But the crash in stock prices post the 2008-financial crisis has caught many companies that opted for the FCCB route on the wrong foot.

imageAlthough the benchmark indices have largely recovered and are about 20% below their 2008-highs, the share prices of companies with outstanding FCCBs are way below their peaks.

FCCBs worth more than US$ 7 billion is maturing by March 2013. With the first option of equity conversion knocked off, redemption pressure stares at issuers as they have to either buyback or repay the bond holders. Ratings agency CRISIL estimates that FCCBs worth Rs 220 – 240 billion may not get converted into equity shares as the current stock prices of issuing companies are significantly below their conversion price.

Take the case of Jaiprakash Associates [stockquote]JPASSOCIAT[/stockquote]. The Gaur-controlled entity issued FCCBs worth $400 million in Sept 2007, with the conversion price set at Rs 165 per share for bondholders. The stock is now quoting at Rs 64.00.

The same is the case with Tata Steel [stockquote]TATASTEEL[/stockquote], Suzlon [stockquote]SUZLON[/stockquote], RCom [stockquote]RCOM[/stockquote], Subex [stockquote]SUBEX[/stockquote], Educomp Solutions [stockquote]EDUCOMP[/stockquote], GTL Infra [stockquote]GTL[/stockquote] and others. RCom escaped the noose by tapping Chinese banks for refinancing its $1.18-bn FCCBs that were due on March 1, 2012. Suzlon, whose shares have lost about 60 percent in the last one year, is also in talks to raise $300 mn to refinance its FCCBs maturing on June 12.

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Suzlon is currently trading at Rs 21.70 while the conversion price of its foreign currency bonds maturing this year are set at Rs 97, making them unattractive for bondholders to convert into shares.

If companies with low promoter holding opt for downward revision of the conversion price, it will only lead to further dilution of their equity stake and drag their share prices lower.

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Moreover, the recent rupee fall has dealt a crude blow to companies. For example, a company would now need to pay an amount of about Rs 5,504 crore (based on current rupee value of Rs 55.04 per US dollar) towards the principal amount to a bondholder of $1 billion, while a similar loan amount would have been worth about Rs 4,400 crore at the start of 2010 when the rupee was quoted at Rs 44.

During these times of severe liquidity crunch, plummeting currency, highly leveraged balance sheets and tight cash flows, the upcoming redemptions can leave many companies paralyzed.

Unable to meet debt obligations or restructure terms of repayment with bondholders can lead to messy legal fights and winding up petitions as seen in the dispute between Wockhardt [stockquote]WOCKPHARMA[/stockquote] and its investors. The countdown has begun and the coming months will determine if India Inc can survive the redemption pressure or is another crisis looming?