Category: Your Money

Analysis: SUNTV

Today’s pick is SUNTV [stockquote]SUNTV[/stockquote]. The stock started the year in a range bound movement, but broke down of the range in March, slipping to Rs 225 levels by June. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend and saw its 52-week high just yesterday. In the last three months, the stock has moved +44% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

SUNTV technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are hovering in the over-bought territory. The stock is trading in the top end of Bollinger band giving out an extremely bearish direction.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving away from each other, suggesting a continuation of the medium term up-trend, confirmed by rising histogram levels. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very distant from each other, giving out a bullish sign for the scrip.

SUNTV correlation chart

SUNTV’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.53 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SUNTV volatility chart

SUNTV has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell for correction. But for the long-term, we see the stock to be sticking to its long-term up-trend and hence is a Buy. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Live Portfolio – Initialized Feb/4

Making use of technical analysis has always been a adrenaline rush for me, and I have been doing it for a long time now. But, from now on I will be sharing the trades and the ideas behind them with all of you. This portfolio will be of select few stocks that are picked up just for the technical reasons, and for the risk management reasons, I will be making both Buy and Sell calls for them.

Stocks that I bought today are CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote], UCOBANK [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote] and, VOLTAS [stockquote]VOLTAS[/stockquote]. Below are the price charts of all the above with reason of the transaction.

Cairn India Technical Chart

Its quite visible, that the CAIRN’s stock is going to experience the golden cross of 50×200 bullish cross-over, and the combination with declining histogram levels of MACD are suggesting a short-term up move for the scrip. The convergence of RSI with price action is also giving a positive support for the thesis. Also, the stock is trading close to the lower Bollinger-band, suggesting an upcoming Bullish move.

For UCOBANK, the stock was in a flag formation for a while and has been trading close to the lower Bollinger-band. An opportunity is visible around the current levels, with the increasing RSI levels combined with increase in volumes. Although, for the stock it is suggested to have Trailing stop losses in place.

UCOBANK Technical Chart

The last stock is VOLTAS and it has broken out of a downward flag on Wednesday, confirmed by the large number of trades on Thursday and close above the upper line of Flag. The increase in RSI is also suggesting improved buys for the stock.

VOLTAS Technical Chart

Here’s how I have allocated the trades:

 

Abhishek's portfolio

As you can see, its more or less an even split. And our demat account holders know the screen below very well:

StockViz Order Screen

Its tough trading when you have the spotlight focused on you. Fingers crossed!

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Investing with a Human Touch

Abhishek, our Chief Technical Analyst, will start blogging about his own personal investments from today. He has seeded his account with Rs. 20,000/- a sum that most retail investors get started with. The idea is to show how you can use the tools provided by StockViz to:

  • Screen for stocks
  • Confirm the right entry point
  • How to manage risk, and
  • When to exit

Wish him good luck!

Follow his posts here.

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Analysis: INFY

Today’s pick is INFY [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]. The stock was moving in a range till March since starting of the year. It then fell sharply to Rs. 2,400 levels in April after moving in range till July the stock again fell to Rs. 2,200 levels. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend. In the last three months, the stock has moved +16% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

INFY technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI is hovering in the over-bought territory whereas CMO is in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not suggesting any directional move. However, short-term technical just saw 9×4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bearish manner. However, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very distant from each other, giving out an extremely bullish sign for the scrip.

INFY correlation chart

INFY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.51 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

INFY volatility chart

INFY has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the higher end of the range.

INFY Analyst coverage

Majority of analysts are suggesting a hold for this stock given the current condition of the IT industry.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we suggest a buy given the well spread out GMMA lines. However, we recommend that investors tread with caution given that the spread in the GMMA lines has occurred due to the +20% spike seen at the most recent earnings announcement. Also, for risk management we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case trend-reversal were to take place.

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The StockViz Reference Portfolio – Feb/01

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A flat week for our portfolio, we were down 0.2%.

As the NIFTY was down 0.88% over the week, our momentum portfolio was down only 0.2% outperforming NIFTY by over half a percentage. Continuing the process of following a systematic repeatable process, with appropriate risk management steps came in real handy.

Talk to us about our Quantitative Portfolio Strategy Execution.

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