Category: Your Money

Analysis: DCB

Today’s pick is DCB [stockquote]DCB[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with an upmove to Rs. 52, and following resistance, fell to Rs. 36 levels. The stock has been in this channel for the entire year now. It is currently on the lower side, and hence it can be said that it will try to reach the top once again. In the last three months, the stock moved -14% vs. a flat Nifty.

DCB Technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently in no-man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a 9×18 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other in the positive direction, but the histogram levels are dropping. Also, the Long-term GMMA lines are contracting to reverse the direction of the move, giving out a positive sign for the stock.

DCB Correlation chart

DCB’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.64, which is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be closely replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

DCB Volatility chart

DCB has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Globe capital has a buy call based on fundamentals:

· The Bank reported Net Profit of Rs. 26.9 Cr. in Q3 FY 2013 against Rs. 15.6 Cr. last year

· Improved asset quality

· Focus on building low cost franchise

· Robust promoter background and experienced management team

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term BUY. A longer term call could be taken based on stocks behavior near Rs. 52 levels. Also, it is advisable to have a tight trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

For a better picture of the NBFC sector as a whole, you can look at what the experts have to say here and here.

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Analysis: SKSMICRO

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Today’s pick is SKSMICRO [stockquote]SKSMICRO[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a down move to Rs. 50 levels. After finding support at the levels, the stock started its up-move to see its 52 weeks high of Rs. 200 in December. Since then the stock has been on an down-trend finding support near Rs. 140 levels. In the last three months, the stock moved -21% vs. a -1% of the Nifty’s.

SKSMICRO technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently in no-man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a 9×18 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other in the positive direction. However, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

SKSMICRO correlation chart

SKSMICRO’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.30, which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SKSMICRO volatility chart

SKSMICRO has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.6 to 1.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range.

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term BUY. A longer term call could be taken based on stocks behavior near Rs. 180 levels. Also, it is advisable to have a tight trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

For a better picture of the NBFC sector as a whole, you can look at what the experts have to say here and here.

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New RBI Regulations for NBFCs and MFIs – Whats in store?

Non-banking Financial Companies (NBFC) and Microfinance Institutions (MFI) are often the only source of banking services in rural India. In October 2010, the sector took a hard hit after the Andhra Pradesh (AP) government passed an ordinance to check MFIs owing to multiple farmer suicides over coercive collection tactics. As AP was, and still remains, a big market for MFIs, those with high exposure in the state suffered losses amounting to ₹7,800 crore.

Microfinance loan portfolio

Since then, MFIs like SKS Microfinance have rebuilt their net worth and resumed operations in AP with the court’s consent; on the condition that they adhere to rules pertaining to loan interest rates and collection practices.

Post the AP incident, the RBI became the sole regulator of the microfinance function in India. A central bill was also tabled for Parliament approval to override state Acts on MFI regulation. The goal is to protect borrowers’ interests and clarify rules mandating the operations of MFIs and NBFCs across the country. According to RBI norms, all NBFC-MFIs must:

  • register as an NBFC-MFI with RBI
  • become the member of at least one Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) recognized by the RBI
  • make 100% provisions for their entire exposure to AP
  • maintain 15% capital adequacy ratio (ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets)
  • maintain a cap on margins though the 26% cap on interest rates has been removed
  • not exceed 4% difference in minimum and maximum rates for individual loans
  • maintain 85% or more of net assets as qualifying assets
  • allocate 70% of loans to income generating activities and 30% to purposes such as housing repairs, education, medical and other emergencies

New NBFC MFI formations must have minimum net owned funds of ₹3 crore by March 2013 and ₹5 crore by March 2014.

While NBFC-MFIs appreciate the clear guidelines, they have reservations on the cap on margins. MFIs that have suffered heavy losses in AP could get wiped out if they cannot maintain the capital adequacy ratio expected. They are already struggling with high operational costs and hefty provisions.

NBFC NPAs

In February, the RBI invited NBFCs to apply for bank licenses by July 1, 2013. Applying entities must have a minimum track record of 10 years as well as clearance from sector regulators, enforcement, and investigative agencies such as IT Department, CBI and ED. Companies must have ₹500 crore as minimum paid-up capital to set up a bank with not more than 49% foreign investment. They must also open least 25 per cent of branches in unbanked rural areas.

While the increased competition is expected to benefit borrowers in terms of interest rates and loan terms, the entry of corporate in NBFC could be disruptive. Established companies like Aditya Birla Money Ltd. will gain from launching a bank but the business volume and profitability of existing MFIs and independent NBFCs will be affected, at least till the time they can match their deposit franchise with existing borrowings. Furthermore, corporate business models could conflict with the social objective of MFI leading to its dilution.

 

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[stockquote]SKSMICRO[/stockquote]

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Analysis: SYMPHONY

Today’s pick is SYMPHONY [stockquote]SYMPHONY[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a range bound movement, which broke out on the downside to reach Rs. 200 levels. After finding support there, the stock started its up-move to see its 52 weeks high of Rs. 455 in October. It then retraced the gains to find support at Rs. 300 levels. Since then the stock has been on an up-trend. In the last three months, the stock moved +21% vs. a flat Nifty.

SYMPHONY Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are crawling towards over-bought territory. The stock has just broken out of a channel and is currently trading at the top of the Bollinger bands.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other, not giving any direction to the stock. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

SYMPHONY correlation chart

SYMPHONY’s average correlation with the Nifty is zero. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SYMPHONY Volatility chart

SYMPHONY has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 1 to 4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Globe capital has a buy call based on fundamentals:

· Q2FY2013 financial performance – 48% growth in PAT

· Large dealer-distribution network

· Exports to boost sales in near term

· Increasing temperature and global warming to fuel demand for air coolers

· Industrial air cooling – growth driver to profitability

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term and a long-term BUY. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

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Analysis: DRREDDY

Today’s pick is DRREDDY [stockquote]DRREDDY[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with an up-move to Rs. 1,800 levels. After experiencing resistance at those levels, the stock started its move down. It then saw head-and-shoulders bottom formation during May to July, and since then it has been on an up-trend. It saw the 52 weeks high of Rs. 1,970 in February, but since then was on a down-trend to find support on the trend-line. In the last three months, the stock moved -1% vs. +1 of the Nifty’s.

DRREDDY technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw 4X9 and 4X18 bullish SMA cross-over combined with a Dragonfly bullish Doji yesterday.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner. However, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

DRREDDY correlation chart

DRREDDY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.35 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

DRREDDY volatility chart

DRREDDY has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.25 to 0.45. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term BUY. A long-term BUY is also suggested based on the support provided by the trend-line. However, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

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