Invest Without Emotions
Inflation has been tamed…
… and global commodity prices are flat.
And yet, they (FIIs) fret…
… pulling more and more money out of the economy.
We blamed gold for our Current Account Deficit woes…
… while completely messing up our coal, iron ore and fertilizer industries.
And here we are again, hat in hand, hoping that the RBI will cut rates and bail us out… again.
The Nifty ended -1.75% for the week. Financials were the worst hit while IT eked out some gains.
| NIFTYBEES | -1.72% |
| BANKBEES | -0.78% |
| INFRABEES | -0.64% |
| JUNIORBEES | -0.15% |
| PSUBNKBEES | +0.19% |
| GOLDBEES | +1.95% |
Bulls beware: the AD line seems to be indicating that the recent rally was probably more smoke than fire.
I find it hard to believe that short-term rates actually rose. Don’t we have a rate-cut in store this week? Interesting…
Here’s a more nuanced break out of what happened over the week across different sectors.
Good luck!
India, the third largest economy in Asia, saw its lowest growth rate in a decade for the fiscal year ending March 2013. The yearly average of 5% was only a tad higher than the last quarter growth rate of 4.8%. Slow economic growth has also affected banks, drastically so for state-run sectors. Loan defaults are piling up as companies go bankrupt. And the companies that can pay via their loaded promoters are trying to wheedle out through corporate data restructuring (CDR).
Banks saw a 51% hike in non-performing assets (NPA) in 2012-13, with the scale tipping towards public sector banks (PSB) that lend funds out of noblesse oblige. Since the government holds a majority stake in PSBs, the banks have to finance groups and projects that may not be commercially viable but need to be supported for “social good” or “nation building.” The fact that these government initiatives are eventually funded by the taxpayer makes no difference.
Furthermore, state-run banks have a different investment agenda from private players that’s often triggered by a “me too” mindset. It’s common for PSBs to pool funds into industries backed by the government or supported by other state-run banks. Risk assessment checks are inadequate even though public sector banks typically involve more documentation and longer approval cycles, at least for the common man.
The net profit of 38 listed banks in the private and public domain showed a mild rise of 3.63% in the March quarter with private banks outpacing their public counterparts. The net profit of PSBs actually fell by 6.64% while that of private banks rose by 24.63%. The growth rate for the fiscal year amounts to -2.63% and +28% for respective sectors.
State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India and Canara Bank – all showed loss in the March quarter though SBI’s net profit rose 20.5% over the year. Private sector banks such as ICICI Bank Ltd, HDFC Bank Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd, Yes Bank Ltd and IndusInd Bank Ltd saw quarter and year net profit rate hikes ranging from 21% to 47%.
Next up, operating profits across banks rose by 6.78% through the March quarter, with private banks experiencing close to 25.41% growth and PNBs only 0.52%. The underlying difference seems to be better control of bad loans by private banks. Public sector banks have had to set aside hefty amounts to cover bad debt, impacting their net profit substantially.
Indian banks have recast over ₹2 trillion under the CDR mechanism that gives companies under stress some relaxation through lower lending rate and extension of repayment periods. While the objective of CDR is to give debt-laden companies a second chance, it is being grossly misused by companies with affluent promoters well able to infuse funds into the dying business. Kingfisher Airlines is one such case.
In a bid to control CDR misuse and reduce bad debt, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has come down hard on loan defaulters, recommending strict steps for banks to recover funds without hurting the industry. The RBI too is working on the final guidelines to increase the promoter’s contribution in restructuring to a minimum of 15% of the diminution or 2% of the restructured debt, whichever is higher. Banks can demand more from promoters depending on the risk of the project and the promoter’s financial ability to commit.
As a result, banks are showing some clout to recover debts – UCO Bank issued a public notice against Nitin Kasliwal, chairman and MD of S Kumars Nationwide Ltd, guarantor of a ₹110.07 crore loan taken by Reid & Taylor. The ad carries Kasliwal’s picture as well in a bid to “name and shame.” Kingfisher Airlines is not having it easy either.
The banking slowdown hasn’t bottomed out yet as the chances of accelerated economic growth is dim for another few quarters. Regulatory tightening and control of willful loan defaulters will help banks to a degree but no respite is expected from the RBI this time in view of inflation and high current account deficit. Banks will just need to cut their loss and swim with the tide for now.
[stockquote]AXISBANK[/stockquote] [stockquote]BANKBARODA[/stockquote] [stockquote]BANKBEES[/stockquote] [stockquote]BANKINDIA[/stockquote] [stockquote]CANBK[/stockquote] [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote] [stockquote]ICICIBANK[/stockquote] [stockquote]INDUSINDBK[/stockquote] [stockquote]KFA[/stockquote] [stockquote]KOTAKBANK[/stockquote] [stockquote]PNB[/stockquote] [stockquote]PSUBNKBEES[/stockquote] [stockquote]SBIN[/stockquote] [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote] [stockquote]YESBANK[/stockquote]
The contentious issue of gas pricing has evoked strong reactions from all quarters. Not wanting to be left out, everybody is jumping into the fray with his gyan on gas prices, either by dishing out their pricing formula or leveling allegations of scam, favoritism and so on.
Sample this: the Petroleum Ministry, Finance Ministry, Power and Fertilizer Ministries, political parties like Communist Party of India, BJP, Left, explorers like RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Cairn India, Oil India and experts like the Rangarajan Committee, the Vijay Kelkar committee, etc, have all been making statements in recent months about gas prices.
The Rangarajan Committee on production sharing contract has arrived at a price of $8.80/mmBtu for gas from the current $4.2/mmbtu. The panel recommended the 12-month average of US’s Henry Hub, UK’s National Balancing Point and Japan’s liquefied natural gas price along with the average of the price of India’s LNG imports for arriving at the domestic price.
In line with Rangarajan Committee’s recommendations, Mukesh Ambani-led RIL and his partner UK’s BP Plc have also favored linking of domestic gas prices with international prices, seeking prices of around $12.5/mmbtu.
But the Power ministry has opposed the near doubling of gas prices saying it will raise the costs for power plants by over Rs 46,000 crore per annum.
The Finance Ministry has also rejected the formula and, instead, wants the panel to taken into account wellhead prices prevalent in Qatar, Oman, Abu Dhabi and Malaysia.
Sensing the backlash that was brewing over Rangarajan panel’s report, the oil ministry, recently, moved a cabinet note recommending a price of $6.8/mmBtu.
Amidst all this hoopla surrounding the pricing of gas, a key factor to consider is: why should the government be involved in fixing gas prices or for that matter any fuel?
Prices of fuels like gas and coal should be determined by the market based on demand-supply, taxes prevalent in states and levies on imports and exports, rate of inflation, availability of alternate fuels, etc.
On pricing rationale, linking domestically produced gas with international prices makes little sense. While offering adequate incentives for producers in developing gas fields is a priority for recovering investment and a reasonable rate of return, using global prices as a benchmark for arriving at a cost for producing gas in India would be tantamount to exploiting consumers to benefit explorers.
From an economic standpoint, why should lawmakers be fixing prices? Let the explorer and industrial consumers negotiate the prices themselves, sign up long-term agreements for gas supplies? Let the buyers decide for themselves whether the price suits them or not.
As long as the gas pricing mechanism is controlled by the government, explorers like RIL and Cairn India will have no desire to produce more, forcing the economy to rely on coal and oil, both of which are neither eco-friendly nor available cheaply.
Market-linked price also results in increased government share apart from eliminating unwanted consumption. Some analysts have also called for price discovery through a competitive, transparent bidding process by the contractors wherein all spectrum of buyers of natural gas participate in the process.
Taking about alternatives, the emergence of shale gas has been billed as a game changer. In the US, gas prices are at record lows as a surge in shale gas production coupled with lower demand has led to oversupply and record high gas inventories. The average price of gas at the Henry Hub has reduced from US$8.8 per mmbtu in 2008 to around US$2.9 per mmbtu in July 2012.
In India, shale gas formations are spread over several sedimentary basins such as Cambay, Gondwana, Krishna-Godawari on-land and the Cauvery. By initiating steps to identify prospective areas for exploration, shale gas can emerge as an important new source of energy and also pave the way for lower gas prices.
The country’s dream of energy security may turn into a reality only if its policies are aligned to meet the challenges facing all its stakeholders including the end consumer. But as it stands, everybody is allowed to have an opinion except the market.
[stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote] [stockquote]GAIL[/stockquote] [stockquote]OIL[/stockquote] [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote] [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote]
Indian institutional flows into debt has been relentless this year. DIIs have pulled ₹ 12,511 crore from equities and pumped ₹ 2,31,965 crores into debt during Jan-May 2013. It appears that as though the entire market has made a one-way bet that rates are going to fall this year… or have they gone so risk-averse that they have decided to ditch equities completely?
FIIs however continued to hoover up equities. Pumping in ₹ 83,206 crores during the same period. Their interest in Indian debt was only a fraction of the domestic appetite.
This is interesting because of the questions it raises. Do FIIs think Indian debt is too expensive compared to equities? Are they taking a contrarian stance to domestic institutionals? Is there something wrong with the way our policies are setup that incentivizes foreign investment in equities over debt?
Whatever it maybe, equity investors better pray that FII tide doesn’t turn too quickly.
Previously: The Great Rotation into Debt
