Category: Your Money

The illusion of knowledge

Is more information better information?

Eight experienced bookmakers were shown a list of 88 variables found on a typical past performance chart on a horse, e.g. the weight to be carried, the number of races won, the performance in different conditions, etc. Each bookmaker was then asked to rank the pieces of information by importance.

Having done this, the bookmakers were then given data for 45 past races and asked to rank the top five horses in each race. Each bookmaker was given the past data in increments of the 5,10, 20 and 40 variables he had selected as most important. Hence each bookmaker predicted the outcome of each race four times – once for each of the information sets. For each prediction the bookmakers were asked to give a degree of confidence ranking in their forecast.

The chart below shows how both accuracy and confidence change as the information set grows over time.

confidence and accuracy vs data points

Accuracy is pretty much a flat line regardless of the amount of information the bookmakers had at their disposal. However, confidence soared as the information set increased. With five pieces of information, accuracy and confidence were quite closely related. However, by the time 40 pieces of information were being used, accuracy was still exactly the same, but confidence has soared to over 30%.

So more information isn’t better information, it is what you do with it rather than how much you can get that truly matters.

Source: Behavioral problems adhering to a decision policy (pdf)

 

Weekly Recap: Possible vs Probable

nifty performance

The NIFTY ended -1.23% for the week in spite of Friday’s +1.92% rally. The worst hit was the Metals Index, down 5.33% for the week.

Index Performance

Index performacne

Top Winners and Losers (CNX 100)

RELIANCE +3.96%
GSKCONS +4.20%
IDEA +6.07%
TITAN -17.36%
ADANIENT -14.50%
JINDALSTEL -12.91%
Titan has been taking it on the chin lately – a combination of their recent expansion meeting RBI restrictions on gold imports and their diamond sales not taking off as hoped. Jindal Steel got charge-sheeted by the CBI, so its not surprising that it was one of the biggest fallers in the metals complex.

 

ETFs

JUNIORBEES -4.46%
INFRABEES -3.18%
BANKBEES -3.06%
NIFTYBEES -1.20%
GOLDBEES -0.70%
PSUBNKBEES +1.71%
It looks like some bottom fishing occurred in PSU banks, but the sector’s troubles are well documented. There was pretty much no place to hide this week.

 

Advancers-Decliners (CNX 100)

ad line

The AD line is showing a slight uptick. Bulls will be keeping a close eye on the sustainability front.

Yield Curve

Is the bond market signalling that there’s not going to be a rate cut this week? Rising short-term yields doesn’t bode well for the rate-cut chorus boys.
yield curve

Sector Performance

Here’s a more nuanced break out of what happened over the week across different sectors.
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

It is possible that you could get hit by lightning, or win the lottery, or marry a supermodel. When we describe something as possible, we mean there is a non-zero likelihood of that outcome — it could happen; we just don’t know if it will or will not, but it might. Probable is more nuanced mathematics — there is a n% chance of a given outcome, where n = a number between 0-100.
Anything that is Probable must by definition be Possible; However, not everything that is Possible is going to be Probable.

Source: Possible versus Probable

The Excuses Cheat Sheet

So, you are an analyst who blew a forecast. You thought you had found a gem and it turned out to be turd. You were so confident in your forecast that you went on CNBC and articulated your beliefs. You know you can be persuasive when you want to be. But now investors who followed your advice are baying for your blood. What do do now? Here’s a ready cheat-sheet for those awkward moments:

  1. The ‘if only’ defense: Claim that you would have been correct ‘if only’ your original advice had been followed. For example: if only the RBI had cut rates, or if only FDI in e-commerce was allowed, etc. This makes your forecast an historical counterfactual, which is impossible to prove.
  2. The ‘ceteris paribus‘ defense: Your Rs. 40,000 target for gold is right and the analysis is solid. The government manipulated the market.
  3. The ‘I was almost right’ defense: The stock would have been a 10-bagger if not for the management blowing it by idiotic acquisitions. Of if you had a ‘sell’ rating:  “They would have gone bankrupt but their competitor bought them out.”
  4. The ‘It just hasn’t happened yet’ defense: Just you wait – the Indian government is run by a bunch of fools and soon gold will be at Rs. 40,000.
  5. The ‘single-prediction’ defense: The analysis is valid, but the forecasting was flawed. Don’t shoot the messenger.

 

Source: Tetlock: Are we prisoners of our misconceptions?

Previously:
A dose of realism
The value of publicly available information is zero

The Right to Spy

The Indian government started pushing for a dedicated cyber surveillance body after the northeast India riots in 2012 that were abetted by false information published on the internet. The increasing use of internet services by terrorist groups is another factor that added impetus to this goal. The Central Monitoring system (CMS) launched in April 2013 is a consequence of these efforts.

If CMS will help secure our nation, why is there a furor against it? It’s because contrary to assurances of government participants, the agency has gone live before the establishment of citizens’ privacy rights and content monitoring guidelines for the agency itself. CMS has become immediately functional without any apparent regulatory control.

The whole “push it out quickly” project stinks of tyranny.

Background

Surveillance systems are not new to India or the world at large. USA and UK have strong cyber surveillance systems. India’s own Information Technology Amendment Act 2008 enables e-surveillance. In fact, after the 26/11 Mumbai attack in 2009, the government set up a CMS to monitor communications on internet, mobiles, and landline phones to enable instant interception of suspicious conversations.

The new CMS though is more totalitarian, covering surveillance of all internet communications in the public domain including SMS, email, voice calls, MMS, fax communications to landlines, CDMA, video calls, GSM and 3G networks without the intervention of telecom providers. The estimated cost of CMS to the exchequer is approximately ₹4 billion.

Other agencies that will have access to the CMS include the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), National Investigation Agency (NIA), Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), Narcotics Control Bureau, and Enforcement Directorate (ED).

Though there is talk of surveillance in the public domain, it’s obvious that real troublemakers will not announce their plans to the public at large via any communication channel. If the ultimate goal of CMS is to tackle crime and terrorism and prevent public disorder, Indian law enforcement agencies will need to delve into private communications. And they certainly have the technological means to do it. This means all of us are exposed.

Now, surveillance of private online communications is not a threat in itself. Sure, it’s an uncomfortable thought, even a little scary but not really a peril. What makes is dangerous though is the lack of clearly outlined privacy rights for Indian citizens. That’s seriously worrying.

Privacy & Abuse

privacyNovember 2012 was when two girls were arrested in Mumbai for expressing their personal opinion on the bandh following Bal Thackeray’s death on their personal Facebook wall. One of them had merely liked the other’s post. That’s the kind of abuse and coercive control every free Indian citizen is anxious about.

The government has done little to allay these fears as there is very little information available on:

  • which agencies will have access to the CMS
  • what data will be shared with third parties and under what conditions
  • who will authorize surveillance
  • what kind of content is liable to be regulated and for how long
  • the structure and process for such regulation
  • whether users have the right to be informed about the surveillance
  • policies ensuring the protection of stored private data
  • the legal rights of citizens in case of privacy abuse
  • laws protecting citizen’s freedom of expression
  • data protection and privacy laws
  • Constitutional Lawful Interception Law

“The Indian government’s centralized monitoring is chilling, given its reckless and irresponsible use of the sedition and internet laws,” said Cynthia Wong, senior internet researcher at Human Rights Watch in a press note published by Times of India. She points out that new surveillance systems have been used around the world to target critics, journalists, and human rights activists.

Is it worth it?

In the interest of safeguarding the country’s security, cyber surveillance is not an unwarranted measure. But without strong laws in place that protect the constitutional rights of citizens, it could easily become a stranglehold on our freedom of speech. Without regulatory policies, CMS could turn into a violator of human rights.

Despite shocking incidents of high-handedness by authorities and misuse of their power, the government has pushed out CMS without adequate groundwork. While the half baked approach is nothing new, it is a poor reflection of the government’s sensitivity towards people’s basic rights and a big blotch on India’s democracy.

HFT vs. Punters

High Frequency Trading (HFT) is the natural evolution of screen based trading which was the natural evolution of open outcry. After completely decimating market makers on the floors of the exchanges, they turned their sights onto price disparities between exchanges. They have been so successful, that the arb no longer exists. Besides, you can only make so much more money once you have to use balloons to create a transatlantic wireless trading line using microwave signals.

In 2009 the entire HFT industry made around $5 billion trading stocks. Last year it made closer to $1 billion. The “profits have collapsed,” says Mark Gorton, the founder of Tower Research Capital, one of the largest and fastest high-frequency trading firms. “The easy money’s gone. We’re doing more things better than ever before and making less money doing it.”

So what’s next for the bots?

Due to a crowding effect in HFT domain and a continuous decrease in profitability a lot of those firms are now moving to momentum, swing and trend-following domains in an effort to recoup their initial investment. Thus, retail traders and fund managers should expect more competition from highly competent and well-capitalized firms with excellent infrastructure and talent. Competition is about to rise significantly.

And this is not a “macro” thing that is not going to affect Indian markets. Algo trading makes up roughly 30% of all trades through NSE. Getco, one of the world’s largest automated traders, received regulatory approval to start operations in India back in March this year.

Expect more competition in traditional timeframes soon but from high-tech participants. The days of the chart trader and the golden cross fund manager are over.

Sources:
Expect More High-Tech Competition
How the Robots Lost: High-Frequency Trading’s Rise and Fall