Weekly Recap: Possible vs Probable

The NIFTY ended -1.23% for the week in spite of Friday’s +1.92% rally. The worst hit was the Metals Index, down 5.33% for the week.

Index Performance

Top Winners and Losers (CNX 100)

RELIANCE	+3.96%
GSKCONS	+4.20%
IDEA	+6.07%
TITAN	-17.36%
ADANIENT	-14.50%
JINDALSTEL	-12.91%

Titan has been taking it on the chin lately – a combination of their recent expansion meeting RBI restrictions on gold imports and their diamond sales not taking off as hoped. Jindal Steel got charge-sheeted by the CBI, so its not surprising that it was one of the biggest fallers in the metals complex.

ETFs

JUNIORBEES	-4.46%
INFRABEES	-3.18%
BANKBEES	-3.06%
NIFTYBEES	-1.20%
GOLDBEES	-0.70%
PSUBNKBEES	+1.71%

It looks like some bottom fishing occurred in PSU banks, but the sector’s troubles are well documented. There was pretty much no place to hide this week.

Advancers-Decliners (CNX 100)

ad line

The AD line is showing a slight uptick. Bulls will be keeping a close eye on the sustainability front.

Yield Curve

Is the bond market signalling that there’s not going to be a rate cut this week? Rising short-term yields doesn’t bode well for the rate-cut chorus boys.
yield curve

Sector Performance

Here’s a more nuanced break out of what happened over the week across different sectors.
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

It is possible that you could get hit by lightning, or win the lottery, or marry a supermodel. When we describe something as possible, we mean there is a non-zero likelihood of that outcome — it could happen; we just don’t know if it will or will not, but it might. Probable is more nuanced mathematics — there is a n% chance of a given outcome, where n = a number between 0-100.
Anything that is Probable must by definition be Possible; However, not everything that is Possible is going to be Probable.

Source: Possible versus Probable