Category: Your Money

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: Introduction

Now here’s a book that really is about you, just as it claims. It’s a rare treat among the seriously brain freezing literature available on investment, all extremely knowledgeable I’m sure but dreadfully painful to read. “The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy” by James Montier grabs you from the very start because: (a) the author’s style is beguiling and amusing, (b) through the subtle humor, you get the message in all its clarity, (c) it’s extremely relatable. Many of the behavioral streaks mentioned in the book will resonate with readers, from the worst investor to the best. And even the best become their worst enemy at times, says Montier.

In the book’s introduction, Montier mentions a startling fact. According to the annual Dalbar studies, the S&P 500 has generated just over 8 percent on average each year, over the last 20 years. So perhaps individual equity investors can be tagged at 6 to 7 percent, yes? Wrong. Equity fund investors actually earn a paltry 1.9 percent per annum, primarily because of selling and buying at the worst possible times.

Cover of "The Little Book of Behavioral I...

In his book, Montier discusses the human traits that make us take illogical and potentially expensive decisions. Thankfully, he also offers solutions to these challenges, most of which are fairly easy to practice, with some discipline. Through the book, Montier shares experiences of leading investors across the world. Like us, they too have succumbed to mental pitfalls at some time. It’s heartening to know, isn’t it? Montier hopes this book will make each of us look inwards, at our own human biases.

To our credit, it’s not really our fault. We can blame it all on evolution. Montier believes we’re still wired to fit into a world that existed 150,000 years ago. Our brains haven’t kept up with the change in our circumstances. Therefore, till we invent technology that brings our brains up to speed, you need this book.

Montier also makes an interesting analogy of our human biases with Star Trek’s Spock, logician and emotionally unsusceptible (but even he got confused at times) and McCoy, the ever emotional comrade. Our brain too has an X-system that aims to satisfy and please quickly, often drawing a picture based on our wishes rather than reality; and a C-system that’s driven by logic. It’s slower in drawing conclusions and as luck would have it, is harder to engage. Additionally, the X-system evolved before the C-system which explains why we are all driven by emotion. If you think you’re a Spock, get the book and get on with the CRT test. Tell me how it goes.

Cultivating our C-system takes perseverance, constant practice and time. It can also be mentally exhausting. Again, Montier has a solution. Now, it may be over-optimistic to believe that each of us will rise to John Templeton levels by the end of this book, but if it doesn’t make you rethink your investment strategies, well, I’ll eat my hat!

(PS: I live in India. I don’t wear a hat.)

 

Monica Samuel is doing a chapter-wise review of the book: The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy by James Montier. You can follow the series by following this tag: tlbbinvesting or by subscribing to this rss feed: tlbbifeed

Weekly Recap: 3 Factors

NIFTY.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

This was one volatile week for Nifty: -0.66% for the week but huge gyrations throughout.

Index Performance

If you thought banks were the worst performers, given RBI moves, think again. It was media and pharma stocks that got walloped.

indexperf.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Top winners and losers

SAIL +14.25%
SESAGOA +17.50%
TATASTEEL +19.95%
ACC -14.60%
ADANIPORTS -13.10%
DABUR -12.11%
Metal stocks rallied on the back of China’s PMI holding up better than what the doomsayers were predicting… Is Dabur a buying opportunity at these levels?

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +2.27%
GOLDBEES +1.68%
INFRABEES -0.34%
NIFTYBEES -1.41%
BANKBEES -1.59%
JUNIORBEES -4.36%
Looks like there was some dip buying in PSU banks but you know what they say about catching falling knifes…

Advancers and Decliners

adline2.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Yield Curve

Inverted but stable… its like saying the patient in the ICU is in a stable coma…
yieldCurve.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Sector Performance

Metal and mining stocks rallied away… is the market pricing in a turn of the cycle already?

sectorperf.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Thought for the weekend

Europe at first lagged well behind India and China in numerous technologies, such as cotton processing and textile spinning, its economic development leapt ahead because of 3 factors. Elites were legally blocked from expropriating property; contracts could be enforced; and the West developed cultural emphases on independent thinking, secularism, and saving money, fostering the growth of technology and human capital.

Source: A History of the World in Three Sentences

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Magic Formula Edition

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, then you should consider “Magic formula investing” – an investment technique outlined by Joel Greenblat in his book “The Little Book that Beats the Market.” This technique beat the S&P 500 96% of the time, and has averaged a 17-year annual return of 30.8%

The formula is based on a simple, combined ranking of Return on Capital (previous) and Earnings Yield (previous). You invest in 20–30 highest ranked companies, accumulating 2–3 positions per month over a 12-month period. Re-balance the portfolio once a year, selling losers one week before the year-mark and winners one week after the year mark. Rinse-repeat.

We went one step further and setup a Theme that invests in NSE stocks that fit this criteria. Check out the “Magic Formula Investing” theme – a portfolio of 10, equally weighted stocks for the value investor in you.

[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Earnings Yield Edition

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, consider these stocks, ranked based on historical Earnings Yield, as the next filter, after Return on Capital:

ARCHIES [stockquote]ARCHIES[/stockquote]
MAHSEAMLES [stockquote]MAHSEAMLES[/stockquote]
TATASPONGE [stockquote]TATASPONGE[/stockquote]
BHEL [stockquote]BHEL[/stockquote]
SASKEN [stockquote]SASKEN[/stockquote]

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Return on Capital Edition

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, consider these stocks, ranked based on historical Return on Capital (ROC), as the first filter:

COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]
ONGC [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote]
ASIANPAINT [stockquote]ASIANPAINT[/stockquote]
ITC [stockquote]ITC[/stockquote]
ULTRACEMCO [stockquote]ULTRACEMCO[/stockquote]
TTKPRESTIG [stockquote]TTKPRESTIG[/stockquote]
SUNTV [stockquote]SUNTV[/stockquote]
PAGEIND [stockquote]PAGEIND[/stockquote]