Category: Your Money

Balance-sheet Strength

We saw how you can use quantitative methods to score balance-sheets with the STA, SNOA and PROBM models. When you put them all together, you get a portfolio of stocks with incredibly strong (and believable) balance-sheets. We put together a Theme that tracks such a portfolio of stocks.

Check out the “Balance-sheet Strength” theme – a portfolio of 20, equally weighted stocks for the value investor in you.

Stocks to avoid based on this model:

PIIND [stockquote]PIIND[/stockquote]
TTKPRESTIG [stockquote]TTKPRESTIG[/stockquote]
SHASUNPHAR [stockquote]SHASUNPHAR[/stockquote]
APARINDS [stockquote]APARINDS[/stockquote]
CCL [stockquote]CCL[/stockquote]
EIDPARRY [stockquote]EIDPARRY[/stockquote]
VINATIORGA [stockquote]VINATIORGA[/stockquote]
NAVNETPUBL [stockquote]NAVNETPUBL[/stockquote]
APLAPOLLO [stockquote]APLAPOLLO[/stockquote]
AVTNPL [stockquote]AVTNPL[/stockquote]

Note: we ignored stocks that don’t had 3 years worth of statements.

Prabhudas Lilladher’s top 8 midcap ideas

Prabhudas Lilladher came out with a research report yesterday that picked 8 mid-cap stocks that looked good. Can these stocks out-perform the Nifty? How would an equally weighted portfolio of these stocks perform over a period of time? Is the hit ratio any better than 50/50? Well, we created a Theme that tracks this portfolio. So dood-ka-dood, pani-ka-pani.

Check out the Theme here: “Prabhudas Lilladher Midcap 10-Sept-2013

Previously: CS Midcap 28-Aug-2013
[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: The Big Bad Market

“Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Market?”

I’ve always been afraid of heights. When I heard that a team building session at my last workplace would include a rappelling event, I was scared witless. But I wanted to face my fears and went for it. One look down that 50 foot cliff … and my bravado melted like wax. Sure, I went ahead (in a suicidal kind of mindset) and ended up winning the Comedy Award. I let go of the rope (not supposed to do that) and plastered myself on the cliff wall like a lizard, not going up or down, much to the glee of my supportive teammates.

Next year, we had the session again. And this time I prepared. I had a game plan: “Do not let go of the rope EVER!” After repeating that in my head for about the millionth time, I went ahead and believe it or not, actually made it, if not in the most graceful manner, at least without acute embarrassment.

Cover of "The Little Book of Behavioral I...

When I read Chapter 2 of the The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy, I felt quite proud of myself. After all, I too made a game plan to overcome fear and stuck to it. That’s what the best investors in the world have always done. Stuck to their investment plan, no matter what.

If you remember, author James Montier talked about “empathy gap” and “procrastination” in Chapter 1 – two human frailties that make us bad investors. But the list doesn’t end there. How could it? Turns out we are also susceptible to a strange malady called “temporary paralysis.” Though it’s not a neural disorder in medical terms, it produces similar reactions of helplessness and frustration in investors.

The well-researched causes of temporary paralysis have been found to be “fear” and “brain drain.” To explain, let me (very shortly) give you a gist of various experimental observations recorded by Montier. The first experiment involved a game where higher risks would yield higher returns.

  • A group that functions without fear (a state reached after suffering specific brain damage, not caused by a lightning bolt from an alien ship) invests often irrespective of earlier wins or losses. Their profits are optimal.
  • People with brain damage but whose X-system is unaffected (hence, can experience fear) invest fewer times and earn lower profits.
  • The diffident “normal” group performs the worst. They invest cautiously at all times which drops to less than 40% after suffering a loss. Profits are lowest, well below average.
  • As the game proceeds, the decision-making ability of the latter groups only gets worse.

In another experiment involving the Stroop Test, it was found that people with stronger C-systems perform optimally every time. Those with stronger X-systems managed for a while but performance fell steadily thereon. This is “brain drain,” the inability to sustain will power and self-control over an extended period.

So what do these experiments tell us? Fear leads to sub-optimal behavior that only gets worse with time. Montier compares this to how people behave in bear markets. Instead of picking up unbelievable bargains, they hold on to cash out of fear, waiting for the rise from the bottom. They lose the early mover advantage.

Montier’s solution for temporary paralysis is the same “Prepare, plan and pre-commit to a strategy.” Have a battle plan for reinvestment to profit from a tumbling market.

Jeremy Grantham, chief strategist of GMO, suggests investing large sums in a distributed and pre-defined manner instead of taking one giant leap. Seth Klarman, head of Baupost and exemplary value investor advises us to put money to work before it hits bottom. He also warns that things will get worse before they get better. Be ready for it.

Most successful investors, in fact, delink the process of research from buy/sell decisions. Great companies may not always make great stocks and vice versa. The key is to make investment research a continuous process and keep a ready “white-list” of investments that are then traded based on pre-set buy and sell rules.

Bottom line: Plan, pre-commit, and execute. Stay disciplined and block every other thought.

Monica Samuel is doing a chapter-wise review of the book: The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy by James Montier. You can follow the series by following this tag: tlbbinvesting or by subscribing to this rss feed: tlbbifeed

Weekly Recap: Manufactured Complexity

nifty weekly performance

The Nifty rallied 3.81% this week, largely on the back of the new RBI Governor’s “Big Bang” entry.

Index Performance

Banks rallied on the back of RBI’s FX swaps that is expected to bring in $10bn from non-resident deposits.

index performance

Top Winners and Losers

ICICIBANK +19.24%
BHEL +19.54%
YESBANK +20.38%
SESAGOA -7.02%
TATAPOWER -6.66%
HEROMOTOCO -5.68%
Say Yes to Yes Bank? After spending most of 2013 in the boondocks, it appears that RBI’s measures was what the market was waiting for…

ETFs

BANKBEES +10.04%
NIFTYBEES +4.09%
JUNIORBEES +2.48%
INFRABEES +1.53%
GOLDBEES -1.79%
PSUBNKBEES -8.24%
PSU (State-owned) banks did not feel the same love that private banks felt. Gold is probably more exposed to currency fluctuations than the macro at this point…

Advancers and Decliners

Are we at the cusp of a breakthrough here?

advance decline

Yield Curve

Rates ended lower across the curve but the term-structure remains inverted.
yield curve

Sector Performance

IT corrected and banks rallied…
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

For all their great work, it is unclear that economists have actually helped government officials manage the complex task of managing a national economy any better than they ever have. We are bedeviled by manufactured complexity — complexity that could have been avoided but has instead been amplified by the pursuit of narrow knowledge in a broad world.

Source: Our Self-Inflicted Complexity

Land Bill: Landing a right note?

The Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, 2013 (formerly known as the Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, 2011), has quite understandably, created a stir. Ever since the bill was passed in the Lok Sabha last week, the debate has largely centred around the negative impact on India Inc but it is too early to call it as a victory for landowners. On Thursday, the Parliament passed the amended version of the Bill wherein the proposed law would not apply to irrigation projects where environmental impact assessment is required under the provision of any other law already in place. The government also agreed that farmers whose land was acquired for irrigation projects will either get compensation or be given resettlement package.

 

INVESTMENT TREND

One of the key proposals of the Bill is the rehabilitation and resettlement (R&R) of not just landowners but also project-affected people.

People whose land and habitation have been taken over without their consent by the state government or companies have resorted to protests, as a result of which all development projects are viewed with suspicion. The examples of acquisition of Singur land in West Bengal by the Tatas or the Reliance SEZ in Maharashtra are stark examples of this growing discontent.

Let’s quickly scan through key proposals before assessing its impact on stakeholders-

  • Private companies to provide for rehabilitation and resettlement if land acquired through private negotiations is more than 50 acres in urban areas and 100 acres in rural areas.
  • When land is acquired for use by private companies or public private partnerships (PPP), consent of 80% and 70% of landowners is required
  • Compensation up to four times the market value in rural areas and twice in urban areas
  • Companies can lease the land instead of purchasing it, but the decision is that of the state rather than the land-owner.
  • If the land is sold to a third party, 40% of the profits will have to be shared with the original owners.
  • Affected “families” would include farm laborers, tenants and workers who have occupied the area for up to three years before the land acquisition. Such persons will have to given a job or compensation of Rs 5 lakh, an allowance of Rs 3,000 a month for a year.

land for sez

Infrastructure companies are crying hoarse that higher compensation could delay projects, spike property, infra costs and in some cases also make land acquisition for industrial projects nonviable.

Kisan Maha Panchayat: No land acqusition

They further argue that buying land for large projects like integrated townships will become difficult and contend that bigger government role in the whole process is a throwback to the Licence Raj era.

A quick look at some of the big-ticket projects will throw some insights into land acquisition costs as a component of overall project costs.

The mega Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor is a $90 billion project. The mega infrastructure project between the Japanese and Indian government has set aside Rs 1,200 crore for land acquisition under Phase-1 of the project cycle. Of course, going ahead, the costs would multiply several times. But what is the big fuss about this? Once the project is up and running, the operators would recover the money, much higher than their investments, from their customers.

 

ORISSA CASE

Similar is the case with Posco’s much-hyped $12 billion steel plant in Orissa. The project, that has run into trouble with locals over alleged forceful eviction against project opponents, initially required over 4,000 acres of land near Paradip in Orissa but was later scaled back to 2,700 acres. According to latest reports and data available in public domain, the state claims to have acquired about 2,700 acres of land and paid compensation to 1,132 people. So far, ‘Rs 21 crore has been paid to the affected farmers for demolishing their betel vines ’. No compensation has been paid towards land as these vines and tree were planted by the villagers on the government land. In Posco’s case, land acquisition costs and Rehabilitation and Resettlement expenses are nil or very minuscule as entire land is government owned.

However, it sounds childish and laughable on the part of India Inc, setting up projects worth thousands of crores, to keep fuming at compensation costs and arguing that land acquisition costs alone would make projects nonviable. What should really worry corporate India is the lengthy process in securing possession of the land. The Bill calls for appointing several committees of activists and “experts” as part of social impact assessment. This would be followed by the Rehabilitation and Resettlement Committee. The multiplicity of agencies would only lead to bureaucratic red-tape and delay the whole process.

 

approval time

As for landowners, their rights have largely been protected. Only when 70% of project-affected land owners give their consent, can companies go ahead with the acquisition process. Since land prices shoot up substantially when industrial projects come up in an area, it is only fair that landowners are paid more than the ‘market price’. Due to lack of clarity on land holdings and titles, involvement of the state government would facilitate the transfer.

The bill will eliminate the trust deficit between land owners and corporate India and ensure that the benefits of development on the acquired lands accrue to land owners and others dependent on the land. Instead of bemoaning the provisions of the bill, India Inc should welcome the legislation as it eliminates uncertainties and lays out clear guidelines for land acquisition without which setting up projects was next to impossible.