Category: Your Money

Institutional Investing Trends

Last year has been a wonderful year to go elephant hunting. Banks were hurting and buried under bad debt, FIIs were selling Indian debt on the back of a collapsing Rupee, this pretty much made domestic bond funds the lender of last resort. Supply, combined with the fact that commissions on selling debt funds are way more lucrative than those on equity, lead to a DII (Domestic Institutional Investor) debt binge.

DII Fund Flows (Cash)

dii cash

FII Fund flows (Cash)

FIIs were in full on panic mode in June, July and August last year. But haven’t really participated in the equity markets this year.

fii cash

DII Fund Flows (Derivatives)

After being short net short in December and Jan, are we seeing a change of heart?

dii derivative

FII Fund Flows (Derivatives)

FII participation remains low. Waiting for elections?

fii derivative

FII Favorites

J&KBANK +26.43%
TATAMTRDVR +19.96%
TECHM +18.30%
DEN +17.51%
NHPC +17.26%
UPL +13.05%
HDIL -36.60%
HEXAWARE -23.00%
AMTEKAUTO -19.25%
SINTEX -12.81%
IVRCLINFRA -12.65%
WELCORP -12.1%

Mutual fund trends

Equity mutual funds’ actions over the last 4 months:

Note:

  • All figures in Rs. crores
  • Data from SEBI, fund portfolio disclosures and corporate filings
  • Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  • Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered
Related

The Facebook National Bank

Amid all the hoopla surrounding Facebook’s acquisition of Whatsapp, this gem of a news item didn’t get the attention it deserved:

BBVA buys banking start-up Simple for $117M

Founded in 2009, based in Portland, and having opened its (online) doors in July 2012, Simple just crossed the 100K customer mark – it has no physical branches and does not offer paper checkbooks. It has no fees and offers customers slick apps with which they can monitor spending activities. The bank’s main revenue stream is from intercharge fees from debit card usage. (SA)

The thought process for this deal was outlined in FT by the CEO of BBVA back in December thus:

Some bankers and analysts think that Google, Facebook, Amazon or the like will not fully enter a highly regulated, low-margin business such as banking. I disagree. What is more, I think banks that are not prepared for such new competitors face certain death.

 

The competitive response is believed to be rooted in big-data:

Yet while this is disconcerting for banks, the good news is that we still have one significant advantage, which is the vast array of financial and non-financial data that we accumulate. This information reveals a lot about habits, tastes, needs and aspirations. Banks need to turn it into knowledge and use that knowledge to provide users with exactly what they want, precisely how and when they need it.

 

The fact of the matter is that this disruption is already under way. China’s Alibaba became a $16 billion lender in less than three years, and China’s largest seller of money market funds in only seven months. Accenture estimates that competition from non-banks could erode one-third of traditional bank revenues by 2020. (HBR)

The risk for banks is that new competitors will consign them to a limited role as back-office utilities.

The competitive landscape

Payments: PayPal, Square and Stripe.
Retail: nearly one-third of domestic Starbucks revenues are paid through its own loyalty cards.
Debit card: Google Wallet. Walmart’s prepaid card that functions like a debit account captured more than a million customers in less than a year.
Checking account: T-Mobile launched a new checking service with a smartphone app and ATM card.

The competitive response

As non-banks stake claim to traditional banking functions, will banks move in to the retail turf?

Coupons: Garanti, one of Turkey’s largest banks, offers a free mobile app that gives customers personalized offers and advice based on their location and past spending.
Loyalty: Bank of America analyzes transaction data to give customers cash back on transactions at frequently used merchants.
Information: BBVA has long made available to its US customers information on the actual selling price of cars (as opposed to list prices)

The Indian scenario

An FT article back in November had this to say:

The RBI also plans to grant more regular licences for a broader range of financial institutions, providing what Mr Rajan described as a “substantial change” to bank structures.

“We could have wholesale banks, we could have mobile [phone] companies doing some banking activities, within certain constraints. We could have small banks, which we currently don’t allow, and we could allow co-operative banks,” Mr Rajan said.

Connecting the dots, I think its time we have a VC funded online-only bank – aka, The Facebook National Bank.

Weekly Recap: Investors’ DNA

nifty weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty put in a respectable +1.77% (+1.96% in USD terms.)

Index performance

Financials largely drove the rally, after spending weeks in the red…

weekly index performance

Top winners and losers

INDHOTEL +12.23%
ADANIPORTS +13.74%
ADANIENT +15.99%
RCOM -8.08%
NMDC -5.71%
BHARTIARTL -5.65%
Airtel got hit with $3B fine in some African country. And Adani continued to ENTertain…

ETFs

BANKBEES +3.36%
INFRABEES +3.17%
JUNIORBEES +3.12%
NIFTYBEES +1.61%
GOLDBEES +1.21%
PSUBNKBEES +0.57%
Is it just a relief rally or are we going to see the next leg-up?

Advancers and decliners

Not much hope here…

advance decline ratio

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum returned to the markets but pretty much all strategies won.

Sector Performance

The most battered sectors staged a comeback… Will this rally sustain?

weekly sector performance chart

Yield Curve

No big moves…

interest rate yield curve

Interbank lending rates

But the rate at which banks are lending to each other seems to be ticking up… Are stressed banks being forced to pay up?

mibor

Thought for the weekend

There is nature vs. nurture debate brewing when it comes it investing.

Seth Klarman, renowned value investor and president of the Boston-based Baupost Group, which manages $26 billion in hedge-fund assets, has this to say:

most people might possess “a dominant gene” for chasing hot performance and overhyped assets, while only a minority have “the recessive value gene” that confers a patient preference for whatever is battered and unpopular.

 
Many investors may in fact have a genetic predisposition to hunt for bargains in the stock market—although the environment you grew up in also powerfully shapes the kind of investor you become.
 
Source: The ABCs of Investors’ DNA

Developed Market Roundup

US back on top?

The latest Flash Manufacturing PMI numbers came in 56.7, its highest level for almost four years.

Markit US Feb Manufacturing PMI 2014

The Eurozone is recovering

The latest Flash Composite Output Index remains close to January’s 31-month high. New orders rose for a seventh successive month, and the rate of growth accelerated to reach the highest since June 2011.

Markit Eurozone Feb PMI 2014

Germany is raking it in

Flash Germany Composite Output Index is at a 32-month high, Services Activity Index is at a 3-month high.

Markit Germany Feb PMI 2014

However, its not all strawberries and cream…

France faces an uphill task

Although its Manufacturing Output Index, at 50.5, is at a 7-month high, Services Activity Index continued to fall and is presently at a 9-month low. New orders received by French private sector companies fell for a fifth consecutive month in February.

Markit France Feb PMI 2014

Big picture

Eurozone M3 money supply has been contracting since March. Germany is in wage deflation. And France’s core prices have been dropping for months, even if the core CPI index is still just positive at 0.1% on a year-to-year basis.

The gulf between periphery and core is as wide as ever:

periphery vs core

Further tightening of US monetary policy might very well tip the Eurozone over and force the ECB to embark on their own version of QE.

Interesting times…

Sources:

Calculate PEs for all Indices

index PE

Some investors like to use the PE ratio of an index to time their entry and exit. This is especially true about the widely tracked Nifty 50. However, there are advantages to rolling your own.

Annual vs. Quarterly EPS

The most popular approach of calculating PE is by dividing the price by the last reported annual EPS. This is probably fine most of the time. However, we prefer to add up the last 4 diluted quarterly EPS so that we have the latest numbers.

Closing vs. Live Prices

Once again, a matter of preference. Since most data points present the PE based on the last close, it may be useful to calculate it based on the live price, just to see the difference.

Other indices

Whereas the Nifty index PE can be obtained from a number sources, what about the other indices? And sector-wide PE estimates? By having a script handy, you can always have a ready reckoner of where things stand.

The Code

The StockViz API exposes the QuarterlyEps endpoint that returns the quarterly basic and diluted EPS in descending order of periods. You can use this to calculate the annualized number, grab the live price and adjust it by the stock’s weight within the index to arrive at the index EPS.

for cc in constituents:
	ticker = cc["SYMBOL"]
	#print ticker,

	price = common.getLivePrice(ticker)
	#print price,

	epss = common.getEps(ticker)

	annualEps = 0
	for i in range(0,4):
		annualEps += epss[i]["EPS_DILUTED_AEI"]

	#print annualEps, price/annualEps

	if annualEps != 0:
		indexPe += price/annualEps * cc["WEIGHTAGE"]

	indexPe /= 100

You can download the entire code on GitHub.

Previously