Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Illusion of Insight

world.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.78%
CAC(FRA) -4.96%
UKX(GBR) -2.49%
NKY(JPN) -0.80%
SPX(USA) -1.07%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.22%
INMEX(MEX) -1.33%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.96%
XU030(TUR) -3.24%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) -12.07%
NIFTY(IND) +1.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.78%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.49%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -4.66%
Ethanol +3.10%
Natural Gas +0.18%
WTI Crude Oil -6.97%
Heating Oil -3.60%
RBOB Gasoline -2.01%
Metals
Copper -1.13%
Palladium +0.78%
Platinum +0.21%
Gold 100oz -0.29%
Silver 5000oz -0.64%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.51% USDJPY:-0.86%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.96%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.95%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.25%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.06%
USDINR(IND) -0.32%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.83%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.82%
Agricultural
Corn +9.16%
Feeder Cattle +0.15%
Lean Hogs +4.63%
Lumber -1.60%
Cattle +2.02%
Cocoa -0.23%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.07%
Cotton +1.26%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.48%
Orange Juice -2.44%
Soybean Meal +4.91%
Soybeans +4.58%
Sugar #11 +6.14%
Wheat +4.59%
White Sugar +3.31%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.19%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.10%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.32%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.12%
Markit iTraxx Australia +5.77%
Markit iTraxx Europe +6.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +27.25%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.68%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.22%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +4.16%
The Nifty was one of the few global indices that ended this week in the green. Pretty much all markets were buffetted by the Greece drama. Shanghai had one of the worst weeks ever – Chinese regulators have allowed pretty much anything to be posted as collateral, the only thing that remains to be tried is outlawing falling stock prices.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +2.10% 64/67
2 +2.76% 71/59
3 +3.02% 72/59
4 +2.47% 68/62
5 +3.80% 76/55
6 +2.73% 67/63
7 +1.58% 69/62
8 +1.35% 67/63
9 +1.52% 63/68
10 (mega) +0.81% 72/59
Midcaps outperformed large-caps. Is this a sign of the market turning around?

Top Winners and Losers

AMBUJACEM +6.76%
BAJAJFINSV +12.09%
UBL +13.80%
TECHM -9.62%
HINDALCO -5.47%
BHARATFORG -3.67%
Who would’ve thunk that a cement stock can go up more than 6% in a week?

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +1.72%
JUNIORBEES +1.70%
PSUBNKBEES +1.02%
NIFTYBEES +0.88%
CPSEETF +0.56%
INFRABEES +0.36%
GOLDBEES -1.07%
Banks caught a bid. Gold sank.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.14 +0.12%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.16 -0.10%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.32 -1.27%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.19 -1.32%
The long end of the curve got creamed…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

People were more confident that they knew the answers — had the information in their heads — if they had access to [internet] search. It’s more like thinking you know how to fix a car if you have access to a mechanic.

Plus, searching the internet is almost effortless, and it’s almost always accessible. You never face your ignorance when it’s there. Because we’re so deeply plugged into it, we misattribute the connection to knowledge to actually having the knowledge ourselves.

Emotional investments can give people the illusion of insight.

Source: The Internet Makes You Think You’re Smarter Than You Are

Implied Volatility around Earnings Announcements

Introduction

There is a common belief that option implied volatility, which is high before earnings announcements, quickly dissipates after the event. So sell options before the event to profit from the fall in IV. We decided to put this theory to test by observing at-the-money IVs 5-days before earnings announcements and their subsequent behavior.

It is not what you expect.

ATM IVs

Here are the at-the-money implied vols 5-days before and the day after announcements:

atm iv announcement

In our study, IV falls only 44% of the time. So the blanket statement fails. IV dissipation is not guaranteed. There are a lot of other things that affect IV and earnings alone is not sufficient to predict the outcome.

However, if the IV was more the 50, then IV dissipates 70% of the time. However, these odds could be similar to those without earnings announcements as well (all things equal.) So further research is required.

Conclusion

Don’t go around selling options thinking that IV will dissipate after earnings announcements. Know your odds.

Macro Update June 2015

US TREASURIES VS. GILT SPREAD

The spread between 10yr US Treasuries and Indian Gilts remained within a tight range this month.

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Long-term bond yields continued their ascent:

ust-yield-curve.2015-06-01

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENTS

FIIs came back to the debt market but took money out of equities…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-06-30

… while DIIs gulped down debt as well.

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-06-30

Oil

Oil futures remained flat.

wti-brent.2011-01-18

Gold

If all the uncertainties cannot move gold up, I am not sure what will.

gold.usd

Copper

After a brief period of enthusiasm, it looks like copper has given up on industrial growth again.

copper.usd

Dollar Index

Looks like the dollar index (DXY) has found a range.

Outlook

Although the Indian markets have shrugged off Grexit for now, nobody really knows the extent to which the contagion can spread. It’s basically a known unknown at this point.

With the monsoon expected to be normal and earnings to begin in earnest only by the end of July, the first couple of weeks of July is going to be driven by optimism.

Quarterly Recap: April-June 2015

world.2015-03-31.2015-06-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -8.53%
CAC(FRA) -4.84%
UKX(GBR) -3.72%
NKY(JPN) +5.69%
SPX(USA) -0.77%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -10.94%
INMEX(MEX) +2.75%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +5.37%
XU030(TUR) +1.37%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) +13.26%
NIFTY(IND) -0.71%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.74%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.27%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +9.46%
Natural Gas +6.38%
Ethanol +8.99%
WTI Crude Oil +22.10%
Brent Crude Oil +13.69%
RBOB Gasoline +14.29%
Metals
Copper -4.73%
Gold 100oz -0.74%
Platinum -4.72%
Palladium -6.21%
Silver 5000oz -6.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:-3.59% USDJPY:+2.18%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.84%
USDMXN(MEX) +3.22%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.14%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.21%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -3.60%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.03%
USDINR(IND) +1.85%
USDRUB(RUS) -4.47%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.08%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +11.08%
Soybeans +7.68%
Cattle -8.30%
Cocoa +12.52%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.39%
Corn +9.44%
Feeder Cattle -1.47%
Lean Hogs +22.31%
Lumber +3.67%
White Sugar +3.99%
Cotton +6.00%
Soybean Meal +9.66%
Sugar #11 +4.00%
Wheat +17.70%
Orange Juice -7.16%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +3.41%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.55%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.77%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +9.21%
Markit iTraxx Australia +11.15%
Markit iTraxx Europe +16.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +27.41%
Markit iTraxx Japan +4.29%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.46%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.19%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +5.20%
European markets got shellacked and global markets went from obsessing over Fed rate hikes to Grexit. We had our own monsoon scare and bond market turmoil even though the RBI is on an easing path…

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-03-31.2015-06-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +4.17% 68/64
2 +9.23% 69/62
3 +6.79% 73/58
4 +5.28% 71/61
5 +2.42% 62/69
6 +0.91% 61/70
7 -1.04% 57/75
8 -1.14% 60/71
9 -5.65% 59/72
10 (mega) -0.60% 58/74
Large-caps held steady…

Top Winners and Losers

BAJAJ-AUTO +26.05%
GLENMARK +26.46%
BRITANNIA +28.00%
CANBK -24.46%
TECHM -24.12%
SRTRANSFIN -23.41%
Looks like Bajaj Auto finally turned the corner…

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +3.18%
BANKBEES +1.65%
JUNIORBEES +1.51%
GOLDBEES +0.87%
NIFTYBEES -0.83%
INFRABEES -2.69%
PSUBNKBEES -4.35%
PSU Banks were the most despised asset class…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-03-31.2015-06-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.36 +2.06%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.07 +1.73%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.07 +0.10%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.39 -1.09%
Yields went up…

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2015-06-30

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Monthly Recap: Letting Go of the Why

world.2015-05-29.2015-06-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -4.11%
CAC(FRA) -4.35%
UKX(GBR) -6.64%
NKY(JPN) -1.35%
SPX(USA) -2.33%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -5.63%
INMEX(MEX) +0.08%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.49%
XU030(TUR) -0.56%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.64%
SHCOMP(CHN) -7.62%
NIFTY(IND) -0.57%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.82%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.31%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -4.12%
WTI Crude Oil -2.96%
Heating Oil -3.91%
Ethanol +4.61%
Natural Gas +7.28%
RBOB Gasoline -2.67%
Metals
Palladium -12.83%
Platinum -2.52%
Copper -5.07%
Gold 100oz -1.45%
Silver 5000oz -6.59%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.33% USDJPY:-1.15%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.69%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.29%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.15%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.73%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -2.61%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.06%
USDINR(IND) -0.25%
USDRUB(RUS) +6.14%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.09%
Agricultural
Corn +17.28%
Soybeans +12.15%
White Sugar +5.92%
Cattle -2.87%
Cocoa +1.42%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.44%
Feeder Cattle -3.67%
Lumber +5.57%
Soybean Meal +16.68%
Sugar #11 +4.00%
Wheat +27.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +15.36%
Cotton +4.09%
Lean Hogs -9.18%
Orange Juice +0.57%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.46%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.63%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.48%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.61%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.97%
Markit iTraxx Europe +3.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +10.35%
Markit iTraxx Japan +4.34%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.80%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.32%
An eventful month comes to an end. The Chinese bubble popped, the Greek drama is playing out, people stopped obsessing about the Fed raising rates and monsoons went from being a headwind to a tailwind.

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-05-29.2015-06-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -5.56% 59/70
2 -2.35% 56/73
3 -2.72% 58/71
4 -2.32% 58/71
5 -0.54% 62/67
6 -4.34% 59/70
7 -1.46% 64/65
8 -2.39% 53/76
9 -2.65% 57/72
10 (mega) -0.34% 64/65
Midcaps got totally hammered with the Midcap Index down 4.73%.

Top Winners and Losers

ZEEL +13.64%
RELIANCE +14.04%
GODREJCP +17.82%
CANBK -19.08%
RPOWER -15.14%
UNIONBANK -14.85%
Media companies as a whole did well. The CNX Media Index was the best performing index in June…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +1.52%
NIFTYBEES -0.32%
JUNIORBEES -0.69%
CPSEETF -0.99%
BANKBEES -1.52%
GOLDBEES -1.63%
PSUBNKBEES -8.23%
Most PSU banks are just zombies at this point – the walking dead…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-05-29.2015-06-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.51 +0.82%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.15 +1.17%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 +0.17%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.14 -0.97%
Bonds were buffeted by gyrations in international bond markets and currency volatility…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

When you’re constantly looking for a catalyst to explain every single move in the markets you start to see signals and correlations that just don’t exist. Most of the time we won’t know exactly why the markets moved a certain way until much later. Sometimes even with the benefit of perfect hindsight, investors still can’t agree on the specifics of the cause and effect. But to some the ‘why’ in the markets will always seem easy after the fact, so they keep searching for the answers.

Source: Letting Go of the Why