Author: shyam

Book Review: The Smartest Guys in the Room

In The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron (Amazon,) Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind chronicle the rise and fall of Enron.

Before the sub-prime crisis and Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, Enron was the poster child of greed gone wild. No other company had ever committed such a massive accounting fraud. Enron’s published financial statements were completely divorced from its underlying business economics. And the system of checks and balances that were supposed to prevent such frauds were corrupted by conflicts of interest within the gatekeepers. Wall Street analysts did not dig too deep because Enron was a massive source of investment banking revenue, its auditor signed off on everything because accounting was a loss-leader for their much more lucrative consulting practice and neither Enron’s board of directors nor the rating agencies that rated its debt cared to peek under the hood.

The following passage from the book captures Enron’s mindset:

The after-the-fact rationalizations were strikingly similar to the mind-set that produced the Enron disaster in the first place. The arguments were narrow and rules-based, legalistic in the hairsplitting sense of the word. Some were even arguably true—in the way that Enron itself defined truth. The larger message was that the wealth and power enjoyed by those at the top of the heap in corporate America demand no sense of broader responsibility. To accept those arguments is to embrace the notion that ethical behavior requires nothing more than avoiding the explicitly illegal, that refusing to see the bad things happening in front of you makes you innocent, and that telling the truth is the same thing as making sure that no one can prove you lied.

Recommendation: worth a read.

Why Anomalies Persist

Academics label momentum as an “anomaly.” Multiple studies have shown that this anomaly has persisted over long periods of time and across markets (AA). Based on this insight, quite a few quantitative momentum funds sprung up. And since nothing good is ever left alone at Wall Street, a whole bunch of momentum factor ETFs launched to ride the wave during the recent bull market. Currently, there are more than 40 momentum ETFs listed in the US.

So, does this mean that the momentum anomaly has been arbitraged out? After all, with over $12 billion in momentum ETFs alone, shouldn’t the strategy have topped out? We posit that it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Why? Because investors just can’t help themselves.

Consider the asset under management (AUM) of these momentum ETFs. If, for an ETF, the price is down 10% and its AUM is down 20% over the same period, it means that there has been a net outflow of 10%. If you run this math on all the momentum ETFs traded in the US since October this year, you end up with about $2 billion in outflows in 3 months. That is roughly 11.5% of momentum assets on the 1st of October.

It has been well documented that investors chase performance, often piling into “hot” funds and strategies and exiting on the slight whiff of under-performance. We are seeing this in action on momentum ETFs. And as long as investors are caught in this doom-loop, momentum (and by extension, value, investment and volatility anomalies) will persist.

Also read: Investor education is a waste of time (Aug, 2014)

Code and data are on github.

Country ETF Returns 2018

There are over 1300 equity ETFs listed in the US. Of these, a fair number are country specific market-cap ETFs. With 2018 almost over, here’s how various country ETFs performed:

Thankfully, there is also an “all country” ETF – VT – the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF. Here’s the chart of excess returns over VT:

Very few markets managed to stay positive this year. Interesting times indeed!

Code and charts are on github.

Annual Drawdowns and Subsequent Returns

All major world equity indices are hugely negative for this year. But is it really newsworthy? Here’s S&P 500 with all the 220-day max drawdown points marked:

You would soon run out of ink if you were to write up a report every time the market dropped the most in the past year. Here’s the one for the NIFTY 50:

And just because the index dropped doesn’t mean that subsequent positive returns are around the corner. Here are the charts for subsequent 220-day returns once a 220-day max drawdown has been made:

You have to squint really hard at the charts above to make a bull case after a drawdown.

We have systematically looked at these relationships quite extensively in the past. You can find them at our Buying the Dip and Market Timing collections. You will notice that the key ingredient is patience – it takes time for the odds to work in your favor.

Code and charts are on github.

SMA Distance, Part III – Backtest

In Part II, we saw that when the 50- and 100-day SMA Distance is in the first quintile, subsequent 20-day returns have smaller left tails. Can that observation be turned into a market-timing system?

The backtest

We setup two long-only portfolios: one that goes long S&P 500 if either of the 50-day or 100-day SMA Distance is in the first quintile and another that, in addition to the 50- and 100-day being in the first quintile, also makes sure that the 200-day SMA Distance is not in the first quintile. These are L1 and L2 in the chart below:

Using SMA Distance is a poor long-term strategy. However, it does help avoid deep drawdowns. It is not very useful as a standalone indicator but perhaps could be used to confirm other signals.

Code and charts are on github.