Author: shyam

Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-08-06.2012-08-10

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +1.47% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHARTIARTL (-13.79%), SBIN (-5.86%) and RANBAXY (-4.91%).
And the biggest winners were STER (+8.61%), M&M (+8.00%) and HINDUNILVR (+6.67%).
Advancers lead decliners 37 vs 13
Gold: +0.07%, Banks: +0.12%. Infrastructure: -0.09%,

IIP numbers that came out this week point to continuing slowdown in investments.

The only bright spot is that FII inflows continue to remain firm. Foreign investors pumped in closed to $2 billion in July. This, combined with hope that the government will announce a slew of fiscal policies to tackle the burgeoning deficits, uncontainable inflation and slowing growth has kept the market drifting higher.

Also, remember that Europe is on summer vacation. Summitry and politics have been postponed to September. If the global macro situation worsens next month, we can no longer rely on FIIs to support the market.

Will we be ready by September to stand on our own two feet?

 

Daily news summaries are here.

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Weekly Recap: Hopium

NIFTY.2012-07-30.2012-08-03

The NIFTY ended on a bullish note, shooting up +2.25% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHARTIARTL (-3.56%), COALINDIA (-2.80%) and HEROMOTOCO (-2.53%).
And the biggest winners were NTPC (+8.48%), BHEL (+8.35%) and GRASIM (+7.83%).
Advancers lead decliners 42 vs 8
Gold: -0.41%, Banks: +1.64%. Infrastructure: -1.21%

Friday’s overseas action will boost the Monday open of the NIFTY. The Dow shot up +1.74% to 13103, S&P +1.94% and Crude +4.63% to $91.16 on good unemployment numbers. Europe apparently read the fine print overnight and decided it liked what Mr. Draghi said: Stoxx 50 +4.8%, Germany +4%, France +4.4%, Italy +6.2%, Spain +5.8%, U.K. +2.2%.

Daily news summaries are here.

Have a nice weekend!

Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-07-23.2012-07-27

The NIFTY ended on a bearish note, melting down -2.16% for the week.
Biggest losers were PNB (-12.76%), SAIL (-10.88%) and JPASSOCIAT (-10.16%).
And the biggest winners were HCLTECH (+7.90%), AMBUJACEM (+7.69%) and HINDUNILVR (+4.16%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 37 vs 13
Gold: +2.10%, Banks: -3.32%. Infrastructure: -1.75%

Its all in the hands of central bankers and policy makers in Europe now. Comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sent shares flying over the last couple of days. (source, source) Here’s what the market is expecting (and Europe better deliver):

  • using Europe’s rescue funds buying government bonds on the primary market
  • ECB purchases of government bonds on the secondary market to ensure transmission of its record-low interest rates
  • ECB rate cuts and long-term loans to banks
  • granting a banking license to Europe’s permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism
  • reduce Greece’s debts by a further 70-100 billion euros by making the ECB and national central banks take losses on their holdings of Greek government bonds

Meanwhile, the breaking of the 5100 NIFTY support (before the Draghi rally) shows that the market has given up on anything positive coming out of our current government. Will we see the August lows again?

Daily news summaries are here.