Author: shyam

Volatility Surface: RELIANCE

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Volatility surfaces is an important trading tool for option traders. Here’s a vol chart of RELIANCE OCT25 options. Note the spike in IV around earnings announcement, the fall-off in IV above and below the ATM strike (800), the spike in vol and the dramatic drop in lambda due the “fat finger” trade on the 5th. [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote]

Our option strategy model, however, is not flashing any profitable trades in this scrip right now, owing to the uncertainty around the trend of the underlying and the high IV around earnings season.

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-10-08.2012-10-12

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.64% for the week.
Biggest losers were DLF (-9.57%), SIEMENS (-7.74%) and BHEL (-7.01%).
And the biggest winners were SUNPHARMA (+4.50%), JPASSOCIAT (+4.45%) and ULTRACEMCO (+3.73%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 32 vs 18
fii.2012-10-08.2012-10-12Gold: +0.46%, Banks: -1.14%. Infrastructure: -1.50%

Net FII flows for the week: $1,345.00 mm (Equity) and -$20.21 mm (Debt)

 

Daily news summaries are here.

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Setting Trailing Stop Loss Percentages

Using a Trailing Stop Loss (TSL) is one of the best ways to limit your downside and protect your winning trades. Instead of relying on your gut, here’s a straight-forward way to derive the appropriate TSL percentage for your trades.

ATR based TSL Percentage

ATR stands for Average True Range. It provides a measure of volatility that incorporates gap/limit moves. The range of a day’s trading is simply high – low. The true range extends it to yesterday’s closing price if it was outside of today’s range.1

To set a TSL percentage, just multiply the latest daily ATR value by 2 and divide by the previous close.

What you are doing here is simply attaching a risk tolerance level (2) based on the stock’s intra-day moves averaged over a period of time.

Example

technical analysis chart

For example, if you were trading [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote] today, you would set the TSL to

2 * 30.5/1,250.65 = 4.88%

You can use StockViz to set a TSL alerts for your trades. Read this to see how.

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-10-01.2012-10-05

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +0.87% for the week.
Biggest losers were LUPIN (-4.66%), BAJAJ-AUTO (-4.32%) and CIPLA (-4.17%).
And the biggest winners were JPASSOCIAT (+7.84%), AMBUJACEM (+7.08%) and BHEL (+6.86%).
Advancers lead decliners 30 vs 20
Gold: -1.04%, Banks: +0.64%. Infrastructure: -0.70%,
Net FII flows for the short week: $457.62 mm (Equity) and $193.11 mm (Debt)

The biggest data point that investors will ponder over the weekend is the US unemployment rate hitting 7.8% for September (8.1% previous).

Erroneous orders placed by Emkay sends Nifty crashing by 16%, to 4880.20 on Friday morning. Emkay has been temporarily barred from trading. Fat fingers indeed. (WSJ) [stockquote]EMKAY[/stockquote]

Daily news summaries are here.

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