Author: shyam

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Earnings Yield Edition

shyam August 22, 2013August 23, 2013

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, consider these stocks, ranked based on historical Earnings Yield, as the next filter, after Return on Capital:

ARCHIES [stockquote]ARCHIES[/stockquote]
MAHSEAMLES [stockquote]MAHSEAMLES[/stockquote]
TATASPONGE [stockquote]TATASPONGE[/stockquote]
BHEL [stockquote]BHEL[/stockquote]
SASKEN [stockquote]SASKEN[/stockquote]

Categories Your Money Tags quantitative value

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Return on Capital Edition

shyam August 21, 2013August 23, 2013

COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]
ONGC [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote]
ASIANPAINT [stockquote]ASIANPAINT[/stockquote]
ITC [stockquote]ITC[/stockquote]
ULTRACEMCO [stockquote]ULTRACEMCO[/stockquote]
TTKPRESTIG [stockquote]TTKPRESTIG[/stockquote]
SUNTV [stockquote]SUNTV[/stockquote]
PAGEIND [stockquote]PAGEIND[/stockquote]

Categories Your Money Tags quantitative value

Banking Stress Charted

shyam August 20, 2013

2s10s

The last time the yield curve inverted – the difference between the 10 year and the 2 year went negative – in recent memory was back in Feb 2012.

Surprisingly, no apparent correlation with bank stocks though.

So what gives?

Categories Your Money

Weekly Recap: Buy One Suit, Get Three Free

shyam August 17, 2013

The Nifty went down 1.04% for the week, but yesterday was the proverbial “Black Friday” with the index tanking -4.08% in one day.

Index Performance

Banks were the worst hit with NPAs coming to roost. Plus the CBI is investigating debt restructurings that were a bet too promoter friendly.

Top winners and losers

ABIRLANUVO	+8.71%
IDEA	+8.83%
TATAMOTORS	+12.61%
BHEL	-10.09%
TITAN	-9.05%
YESBANK	-8.74%

Titan was the lamb to the slaughter with the RBI and the Finance Ministry hell bent on curbing jewelry sales. Idea continued to baffle sane investors.

ETFs

GOLDBEES	+8.50%
INFRABEES	-0.10%
NIFTYBEES	-0.76%
JUNIORBEES	-1.24%
BANKBEES	-3.46%
PSUBNKBEES	-11.62%

Banks got no respite while paper gold surged. How long before the government annexes the gold in the gold ETFs?

Advancers and Decliners

Yield Curve

The yield curve continued to shift up. Maturities out 5 years mostly flat but short-term looks stressed.

Sector Performance

2-3 wheelers over-turned their last week’s under-performance.

Thought for the Weekend

Linear thinking is dangerous. It is the easiest form of reasoning, lying on the path of least resistance. The simpler the path, the more readily people will march along it. Linear arguments are easy to make, as they require the least amount of evidence — past data points with a straight line drawn through them. However, the larger the crowd that follows the wrong line of reasoning, the more people pile in, and the greater the consequences if they are proved wrong.

Source: Ben Bernanke: Buy One Suit, Get Three Free

Categories Your Money Tags weekly

Weekly Recap: I don’t know

shyam August 9, 2013

The Nifty continued its slide, down -1.98%. Some of the beaten down sectors staged a dead-cat bounce. The new RBI governor is likely to follow Brazil and Turkey in hiking short-term rates to stabilize the currency and tame inflation. Meanwhile, overly leveraged business are going to take a hit. Not to mention the worsening of the payment situation in the infrastructure and real-estate sectors.