Author: shyam

Book to Market Value

Book Value to Market Value (BtM) is the ratio of the firm’s Book Value to the Market Price of Equity. Book Value is simply total assets minus intangibles and good will and Market Price is the total common shares outstanding times the market price of the stock.

The problem with the BtM ratio is that it tends to pick stocks that are under attack. However, its an useful measure to make an apple-to-apple comparison between stocks within the same sector.

When we ranked the universe of stocks using BtM, it obviously threw up a lot of stocks that have been hammered down:

SELMCL [stockquote]SELMCL[/stockquote]
MICROTECH [stockquote]MICROTECH[/stockquote]
GAMMONIND [stockquote]GAMMONIND[/stockquote]
UNITEDBNK [stockquote]UNITEDBNK[/stockquote]
UBHOLDINGS [stockquote]UBHOLDINGS[/stockquote]

What’s more interesting is what made the bottom of the list:

DABUR [stockquote]DABUR[/stockquote]
ZYDUSWELL [stockquote]ZYDUSWELL[/stockquote]
BAJAJCORP [stockquote]BAJAJCORP[/stockquote]
TCS [stockquote]TCS[/stockquote]
EMAMILTD [stockquote]EMAMILTD[/stockquote]
HINDUNILVR [stockquote]HINDUNILVR[/stockquote]
GODREJCP [stockquote]GODREJCP[/stockquote]
PAGEIND [stockquote]PAGEIND[/stockquote]
COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]
SPARC [stockquote]SPARC[/stockquote]

So basically, the more ‘popular’ the stock, the less of a ‘value’ it is, at least according to BtM. Also, when you work with annual balance sheets later in the year, most of the information tends to be fully priced-in.

What’s your GPA?

Gross Profitability to Total Assets (GPA) is the ratio of the firm’s gross profits (revenues minus cost of goods sold) to its assets. Gross profitability has been shown to have far more power than earnings in predicting returns. Gross profits is the cleanest accounting measure of true economic profitability. The farther down the income statement one goes, the more polluted profitability measures become, and the less related they are to true economic profitability. Investors who are interested in the literature can read The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium by Robert Novy-Marx (pdf)

For the companies for which we have 5 years worth of financials available, 20 stocks with the best GPA score are:
RSSOFTWARE [stockquote]RSSOFTWARE[/stockquote]
GEOMETRIC [stockquote]GEOMETRIC[/stockquote]
COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]
ZENSARTECH [stockquote]ZENSARTECH[/stockquote]
TATAELXSI [stockquote]TATAELXSI[/stockquote]
NIITTECH [stockquote]NIITTECH[/stockquote]
THINKSOFT [stockquote]THINKSOFT[/stockquote]
INFINITE [stockquote]INFINITE[/stockquote]
ECLERX [stockquote]ECLERX[/stockquote]
ALLSEC [stockquote]ALLSEC[/stockquote]
HINDUNILVR [stockquote]HINDUNILVR[/stockquote]
BRITANNIA [stockquote]BRITANNIA[/stockquote]
INFOTECENT [stockquote]INFOTECENT[/stockquote]
ZYDUSWELL [stockquote]ZYDUSWELL[/stockquote]
PERSISTENT [stockquote]PERSISTENT[/stockquote]
TCS [stockquote]TCS[/stockquote]
TTKPRESTIG [stockquote]TTKPRESTIG[/stockquote]
MASTEK [stockquote]MASTEK[/stockquote]
TECHM [stockquote]TECHM[/stockquote]
PAGEIND [stockquote]PAGEIND[/stockquote]

The bottom 10 are:

SOUTHBANK [stockquote]SOUTHBANK[/stockquote]
CUB [stockquote]CUB[/stockquote]
DCB [stockquote]DCB[/stockquote]
ESL [stockquote]ESL[/stockquote]
SYNDIBANK [stockquote]SYNDIBANK[/stockquote]
YESBANK [stockquote]YESBANK[/stockquote]
UNIONBANK [stockquote]UNIONBANK[/stockquote]
VIJAYABANK [stockquote]VIJAYABANK[/stockquote]
UNITEDBNK [stockquote]UNITEDBNK[/stockquote]
UCOBANK [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote]

The bottom 10 non-financial stocks:

ESL [stockquote]ESL[/stockquote]
IBPOW [stockquote]IBPOW[/stockquote]
SUNTECK [stockquote]SUNTECK[/stockquote]
RPOWER [stockquote]RPOWER[/stockquote]
SREINFRA [stockquote]SREINFRA[/stockquote]
GREENPOWER [stockquote]GREENPOWER[/stockquote]
UNITECH [stockquote]UNITECH[/stockquote]
MANJEERA [stockquote]MANJEERA[/stockquote]
GAMMNINFRA [stockquote]GAMMNINFRA[/stockquote]
MURLIIND [stockquote]MURLIIND[/stockquote]

GPA favors ‘asset light’ companies over infrastructure and capital intensive ones. For example, banks with a retail presence will obviously under-perform software services companies. But its a useful measure to discern between stocks within the same sector.

Weekly Recap: 3 Factors

NIFTY.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

This was one volatile week for Nifty: -0.66% for the week but huge gyrations throughout.

Index Performance

If you thought banks were the worst performers, given RBI moves, think again. It was media and pharma stocks that got walloped.

indexperf.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Top winners and losers

SAIL +14.25%
SESAGOA +17.50%
TATASTEEL +19.95%
ACC -14.60%
ADANIPORTS -13.10%
DABUR -12.11%
Metal stocks rallied on the back of China’s PMI holding up better than what the doomsayers were predicting… Is Dabur a buying opportunity at these levels?

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +2.27%
GOLDBEES +1.68%
INFRABEES -0.34%
NIFTYBEES -1.41%
BANKBEES -1.59%
JUNIORBEES -4.36%
Looks like there was some dip buying in PSU banks but you know what they say about catching falling knifes…

Advancers and Decliners

adline2.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Yield Curve

Inverted but stable… its like saying the patient in the ICU is in a stable coma…
yieldCurve.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Sector Performance

Metal and mining stocks rallied away… is the market pricing in a turn of the cycle already?

sectorperf.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Thought for the weekend

Europe at first lagged well behind India and China in numerous technologies, such as cotton processing and textile spinning, its economic development leapt ahead because of 3 factors. Elites were legally blocked from expropriating property; contracts could be enforced; and the West developed cultural emphases on independent thinking, secularism, and saving money, fostering the growth of technology and human capital.

Source: A History of the World in Three Sentences

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Magic Formula Edition

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, then you should consider “Magic formula investing” – an investment technique outlined by Joel Greenblat in his book “The Little Book that Beats the Market.” This technique beat the S&P 500 96% of the time, and has averaged a 17-year annual return of 30.8%

The formula is based on a simple, combined ranking of Return on Capital (previous) and Earnings Yield (previous). You invest in 20–30 highest ranked companies, accumulating 2–3 positions per month over a 12-month period. Re-balance the portfolio once a year, selling losers one week before the year-mark and winners one week after the year mark. Rinse-repeat.

We went one step further and setup a Theme that invests in NSE stocks that fit this criteria. Check out the “Magic Formula Investing” theme – a portfolio of 10, equally weighted stocks for the value investor in you.

[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Earnings Yield Edition

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, consider these stocks, ranked based on historical Earnings Yield, as the next filter, after Return on Capital:

ARCHIES [stockquote]ARCHIES[/stockquote]
MAHSEAMLES [stockquote]MAHSEAMLES[/stockquote]
TATASPONGE [stockquote]TATASPONGE[/stockquote]
BHEL [stockquote]BHEL[/stockquote]
SASKEN [stockquote]SASKEN[/stockquote]