Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: The Fallacy of Success

nifty 50 weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty ended the week +1.53% (1.33% in USD terms) largely driven by the metal and energy complex.

Index Performance

index performance chart

Top winners and losers

TATASTEEL +6.82%
BPCL +6.86%
JPASSOCIAT +18.36%
BANKINDIA -6.93%
PFC -5.83%
CANBK -5.42%
It would appear that a “reflation” trade is underway…

ETFs

GOLDBEES +2.89%
BANKBEES +1.69%
NIFTYBEES +1.45%
JUNIORBEES -0.60%
INFRABEES -1.85%
PSUBNKBEES -5.25%
Gold was all over the map this week but PSU Banks got punished…

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

The curve seems to be pricing in a rate hike, given high inflation numbers…

yield curve chart

Interbank Rates

… with 3-month bank-to-bank lending still around 10%

mibor interbank rate chart

Sector performance

sector performance chart

Investment theme performance

A roundup of Investment Theme performance this week.

Thought for the weekend

It is perfectly obvious that in any decent occupation (such as bricklaying or writing books) there are only two ways (in any special sense) of succeeding. One is by doing very good work, the other is by cheating. Both are much too simple to require any literary explanation. If you are in for the high jump, either jump higher than any one else, or manage somehow to pretend that you have done so. If you want to succeed at whist, either be a good whist-player, or play with marked cards. You may want a book about jumping; you may want a book about whist; you may want a book about cheating at whist. But you cannot want a book about Success. Especially you cannot want a book about Success such as those which you can now find scattered by the hundred about the book-market. You may want to jump or to play cards; but you do not want to read wandering statements to the effect that jumping is jumping, or that games are won by winners.

Source: The Fallacy of Success

Banks: Straight Line Growth?

We recently added historical quarterly EPS charts on our equities page it has started throwing up some interesting questions. Consider IndusInd Bank [stockquote]INDUSINDBK[/stockquote] for example:

IndusInd Bank EPS chart

The bank has had an almost unbroken streak ever since it started reporting results (from back in 2007 July) and the stock has basically gone from Rs. 50 to Rs. 400 in the same period… a 40% IRR + dividends, if you had just bought the stock and sat on it for 6 years.

A similar story seems to have played out in Yes Bank [stockquote]YESBANK[/stockquote] as well:

Yes Bank EPS chart

And Axis Bank [stockquote]AXISBANK[/stockquote]:

Axis Bank EPS chart

Most private banks more or less have the same story. Incredible how in spite of the economy experiencing multiple head-winds – slowing growth, the Lehman event, etc. banks have been ringing it in…

 

Machine Learning Stocks, Part II

We had previously rolled out the “similar stocks” feature that grouped stocks based on risk and technical parameters. The idea of grouping/clustering stocks is that it allows you to find better alternatives to your favorite stocks. We combined machine learning with our Fundamental Quantitative Scores to cluster stocks based on fundamental metrics.

For example, here’s what Glenmark’s looks like:

Glenmark

 

Related:

Machine Learning Stocks
Quantitative Value Series
StockViz Trading/demat Account
Fundamental Quantitative Scores for Stocks

Weekly Recap: Opiate for the masses

nifty heatmap

The Nify rallied +3.20% (3.62% in USD) as investors chose to ignore the gloom-and-doom surrounding realty and focused on the positives in IT.

Index Performance

index performance

Top winners and losers

ADANIENT +10.79%
RANBAXY +10.80%
DLF +11.06%
COALINDIA -8.87%
GODREJCP -5.49%
HINDALCO -3.22%
It appears that recovery trade is getting underway…

ETFs

BANKBEES +3.79%
PSUBNKBEES +3.70%
JUNIORBEES +3.25%
NIFTYBEES +3.12%
INFRABEES +2.91%
GOLDBEES +0.63%
Bank ETFs rallied and it looks like PSU banks are turning the corner – thanks to Prof. Rajan…

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

Yields are down on the back of internationalization efforts of the RBI. Although much work needs to done, the markets seem to be giving RBI the benefit of the doubt…

yield curve

Interbank Rates

… and banks are lending freely to each other, as evidenced by the falling MIBOR rates.

interbank rates

Sector Performance

sector performance

Thought for the Weekend

Does social media keep people confused, misled and doped up? Social media keeps us engaged in the activities of semi-imaginary role playing and distracts us from events and action in the real world. As long as we’re busy pretending to be cool or acting outraged online, we won’t be fully present or even really care about legitimate problems. In giving us a chimerical outlet to speak our minds, get distracted playing a role in a game, and get our fix of dopamine, social media is the perfect opiate for keeping the masses deluded and powerless.

Source: The perfect opiate for the masses