Author: shyam

Apollo Tyres: Buyer’s Remorse

Back in June this year, Apollo Tyres decided to buy US based Cooper Tyre & Rubber (CTB) for more than $2.5 billion, or $35 a share. Apollo was required to use its “reasonable best efforts” to get consents from any parties, like the steelworkers and its Chinese JV partner, whose approval is needed. In the meantime, the markets did not wait to show its hatred of the deal.

Apollo Tyres:

Apollo Tyres price chart

 

Cooper Tyre & Rubber:

 

Turns out that CTB has an underfunded UK pension scheme, which has only about two-thirds of the cash it needs to pay its promised pension benefits (a shortfall of £76.5m as at December 2012). And going into the deal, CTB’s management did not disclose that its Chinese partner had flirted with making a bid for the company. The pissed-off Chinese JV partner then organized a strike, put guards at the door and refused to allow Cooper and Apollo access to its financials.

The shit-show doesn’t end there. Morgan Stanely and other bankers involved in the deal have been unable to find buyers for the bonds that were supposed to finance the deal.  Apollo was planning to borrow more than $2.3 billion to pay for Cooper’s shares, and had plans to finance its $450 million equity slice as well.

Looks like the only option for Apollo is to stall for long enough that CTB is forced to file third-quarter financial statements. At which point it can try and wriggle out of the deal saying that key financial information was not disclosed during the time of the deal. However, CTB is having none of it. The company has dragged Apollo to court in its attempt to make it sign on the dotted line.

The question is what is Apollo going to do if it is instructed by the court to complete the deal but can’t find the financing promised by its banks? Interesting days ahead…

 

[stockquote]APOLLOTYRE[/stockquote]

Pedal to the Metal

We are in the middle of what can be best described as the most hated rally of all time. Retail investors have been sellers, having seen similar highs three times already. And economists, who should know better than to opine about the stock-markets, have labeled the rally as “without underlying fundamentals.”

But seasoned investors will know that the market is forward looking and its default setting is “optimism.” Who knows when this rally will end? But as long as it lasts, its time to press as hard on the accelerator as you can.

Go High Beta!

We created an Investment Theme a few days ago that consists of a portfolio of fairly liquid high beta stocks. It has beaten the cr@p out of every other portfolio so far. You can have a look at the theme here: Market Fliers

 
[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]

Investors buy more following a CNBC interview conducted by an attractive anchorwoman

Some of the academic research we follow here at StockViz show how bizarre human decision making is. Consider this fine example (pdf):

  • Investors get excited by the pre-announcement of the interview and ramp shares higher: from days -2 to 0 (interview day) firms experience a positive 4-factor abnormal return of 1.62%
  • Then experience a negative abnormal return of -1.08% over the next ten days.
  • There is abnormal amount of trading by individual investors on days the CEO is interviewed by CNBC.
  • They keep on buying if the interview was both carried out by attractive anchorwoman and was watched by more male viewers.

It seems that we use a different head to trade when we see attractive women…

Weekly Recap: Headlines

Nifty weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty ended the week up +2.64% (+2.18% in USD terms)

Index Performance

Banks stole the show and how!

index performance

Top winners and losers

PFC +14.84%
PNB +14.94%
BANKINDIA +21.81%
UBL -6.87%
ITC -3.53%
DABUR -3.18%
Its probably the first time Power Finance Corp made it to the top of this list…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +13.39%
BANKBEES +6.43%
NIFTYBEES +2.55%
INFRABEES +2.47%
JUNIORBEES +2.09%
GOLDBEES -3.17%
Banks, Banks, Banks…

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

Must have been a snooze fest on the bonds desks…

india yield curve

Interbank Rates

interbank lending rates

Sector Performance

sector performance

Investment Theme Performance

This week belonged to value portfolios…

Thought for the weekend

headlines

Source: xkcd