Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Making the Right Decision

nifity weekly performance heatmap

The markets got crushed this week. The Nifty ended -2.64% (-3.92% in USD terms).

Index Performance

The biggest losers were banks but pharma was spared most of the pain.

index weekly performance

Top winners and losers

ADANIENT +6.43%
SAIL +6.87%
TECHM +9.77%
SRTRANSFIN -12.84%
UBL -12.39%
BANKBARODA -10.46%
Tech Mahindra rallied on better than expected results and outlook…

ETFs

INFRABEES +0.47%
GOLDBEES -0.35%
JUNIORBEES -1.68%
NIFTYBEES -2.58%
PSUBNKBEES -5.57%
BANKBEES -6.12%
Bank ETFs continued to see red. Shouldn’t an improving economic outlook help banks manage their bad loans? I’ll chalk this one up to profit-taking…

Advancers and Decliners

advance-decline chart

Yield Curve

Long-bonds would have got shellacked this week…

indian yield curve

Interbank rates

… however, interbank lending rates (MIBOR) continued to stabilize.

india interbank lending rates

Sector Performance

Titan, a big component of the “Gems Jewellery and Watches” sector got trounced when the RBI refused to hike the FII investment limit in the company…

weekly sector performance chart

Investment Theme Performance

Our Quantitative Value Investment Theme continued to beat out other model portfolios…

Thought for the Weekend

Scott McNealy — a co-founder of Sun Microsystems:

It’s important to make good decisions. But I spend much less time and energy worrying about “making the right decision” and much more time and energy ensuring that any decision I make turns out right.

Merely selecting the “best” option doesn’t guarantee that things will turn out well in the long run, just as making a sub-optimal choice doesn’t doom us to failure or unhappiness. It’s what happens next (and in the days, months, and years that follow) that ultimately determines whether a given decision was “right.”

Source: Stop Worrying About Making the Right Decision

The problem with conventional economics: it doesn’t model Ignorance

If recent research (pdf) has to be believed, then the problem with conventional economics is that it tries to model how individuals choose from a range of options. But how do they know what these options are? Many feasible options might not even occur to them. Customers who don’t know of alternative products get ripped off; potential rivals who don’t know the technology or market don’t enter the industry, etc.

The worst part is that we know not that we know not. Decision makers are often unaware that they are choosing in ignorance.

The paper makes some interesting hypothesis:

  • Ignorance often goes unrecognized
  • Even when we worry, plan, and prepare for the future while explicitly recognizing our ignorance, Consequential Amazing Development, CADs, will occur

Investors tend to make significant errors because much of their training prepares them only for the world of risk and uncertainty, with probabilities that can be estimated. But real life involves a series of amazements, not just contemplated events. Also, most of these are singular occurrences, making it difficult to learn from past mistakes.

Worth a read.

Apollo Tyres: Buyer’s Remorse

Back in June this year, Apollo Tyres decided to buy US based Cooper Tyre & Rubber (CTB) for more than $2.5 billion, or $35 a share. Apollo was required to use its “reasonable best efforts” to get consents from any parties, like the steelworkers and its Chinese JV partner, whose approval is needed. In the meantime, the markets did not wait to show its hatred of the deal.

Apollo Tyres:

Apollo Tyres price chart

 

Cooper Tyre & Rubber:

 

Turns out that CTB has an underfunded UK pension scheme, which has only about two-thirds of the cash it needs to pay its promised pension benefits (a shortfall of £76.5m as at December 2012). And going into the deal, CTB’s management did not disclose that its Chinese partner had flirted with making a bid for the company. The pissed-off Chinese JV partner then organized a strike, put guards at the door and refused to allow Cooper and Apollo access to its financials.

The shit-show doesn’t end there. Morgan Stanely and other bankers involved in the deal have been unable to find buyers for the bonds that were supposed to finance the deal.  Apollo was planning to borrow more than $2.3 billion to pay for Cooper’s shares, and had plans to finance its $450 million equity slice as well.

Looks like the only option for Apollo is to stall for long enough that CTB is forced to file third-quarter financial statements. At which point it can try and wriggle out of the deal saying that key financial information was not disclosed during the time of the deal. However, CTB is having none of it. The company has dragged Apollo to court in its attempt to make it sign on the dotted line.

The question is what is Apollo going to do if it is instructed by the court to complete the deal but can’t find the financing promised by its banks? Interesting days ahead…

 

[stockquote]APOLLOTYRE[/stockquote]

Pedal to the Metal

We are in the middle of what can be best described as the most hated rally of all time. Retail investors have been sellers, having seen similar highs three times already. And economists, who should know better than to opine about the stock-markets, have labeled the rally as “without underlying fundamentals.”

But seasoned investors will know that the market is forward looking and its default setting is “optimism.” Who knows when this rally will end? But as long as it lasts, its time to press as hard on the accelerator as you can.

Go High Beta!

We created an Investment Theme a few days ago that consists of a portfolio of fairly liquid high beta stocks. It has beaten the cr@p out of every other portfolio so far. You can have a look at the theme here: Market Fliers

 
[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]