Author: shyam

The Inflation Targeting Trojan Horse

Raghuram Rajan, after having said “If you do a Volcker, you kill the supply side, and then you are in a bad situation,” seems to be itching to do a mini-Volcker.

On his arrival at the RBI, Rajan established a Trojan horse in the shape of an expert committee tasked to advise whether the central bank’s somewhat elastic growth-inflation mandate should be changed to a narrow inflation target.

The Urjit Committee came back with a recommendation that the RBI should aim to reduce headline consumer price inflation to 8% within a year, 6% within two years and 4% (+/- 2pp) thereafter.

This chart from a recent Credit Suisse report show how ridiculously difficult this is going to be:

growth vs inflation

The problem is that India is a convoluted policy mess. Food & energy account for 57% of the total CPI. We have a Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for food that have a greater impact on food & energy inflation than repo rates.

msp vs inflation

More from the Credit Suisse report:

Supply-side shocks (e.g. unusual weather patterns) and government policies are often more important drivers to the extent they impact food prices in particular. According to our analysis, if, for example, the government were to lift minimum support prices for key foodstuffs by an average of 20% at the beginning of the 2014/15 fiscal year, rather than another 6% as in 2013/14, this would more than offset the disinflationary effect of a 100bp repo rate hike.

The brain-trust at Credit Suisse expect three more 25bps repo rate hikes by the end of the 2014/15 fiscal year. If this were to occur, what would become of the banks? From FT:

If one makes sane assumptions regarding what % of the currently stressed assets of the banking system will have to written off and if one factors in incremental Basel III capital requirements over and above that, Indian banks need around US$40bn to regain Balance Sheet strength. That amounts to 2% of GDP.

Inflation targeting, without fiscal reform, and without considering the fate of banks and lacking any progress on labor reforms will brew a potentially toxic stew. Good luck to whoever wins the elections.

Monthly Recap: The Devil Always Wins

Feb world equity markets

Nifty erased most of the loses from the previous month, clocking in +3.08% (+3.75% in USD terms) for February.

Major
DAX(DEU) +6.37%
CAC(FRA) +7.29%
NKY(JPN) +5.94%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +6.16%
INMEX(MEX) -4.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -4.29%
XU030(TUR) +1.04%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.05%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.46%
TOP40(ZAF) +6.99%

Nifty Heatmap

monthly nifty heatmap

Index Performance

monthly index performance

Top winners and losers

TATAMOTORS +19.28%
INDHOTEL +19.41%
PFC +20.90%
SAIL -13.17%
NMDC -12.07%
NTPC -11.11%
The month was marked by some pretty wild swings.

ETFs

BANKBEES +4.57%
GOLDBEES +3.06%
NIFTYBEES +2.78%
JUNIORBEES +1.11%
PSUBNKBEES -0.38%
INFRABEES -1.24%
Banks and gold led the ETF pack.

Advancers and Decliners

Green shoots? Brown shoots?

advancers and decliners

Investment Theme Performance

Balance-sheet strength is +43.64% since inception. But that’s not the winningest strategy. Read our roundup to get a sense of what quantitative strategies combined with a structure that enforces discipline can do for you.

Sector Performance

monthly sector performance

Yield Curve

What do the short-term rates portend?

yield curve monthly move

Thought to sum up the month

Howard Marks, chairman of the U.S. investment firm Oaktree Capital:

There actually are two risks in investing: One is to lose money and the other is to miss opportunity. You can eliminate either one, but you can’t eliminate both at the same time.

I think of it like a comedy movie where a guy is considering some activity. On his right shoulder is sitting an angel in a white robe. He says: «No, don’t do it! It’s not prudent, it’s not a good idea, it’s not proper and you’ll get in trouble». On the other shoulder is the devil in a red robe with his pitchfork. He whispers: «Do it, you’ll get rich». In the end, the devil usually wins. Caution, maturity and doing the right thing are old-fashioned ideas.

Source: In the end, the devil usually wins

Weekly Recap: Lean vs. Fat Worlds

world equity markets weekly map

The Nifty clocked in a respectable +1.97% (+2.12% in USD terms) this week.

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.36%
CAC(FRA) +0.62%
UKX(GBR) -0.41%
NKY(JPN) -0.17%
SPX(USA) +0.84%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.56%
INMEX(MEX) -2.47%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +3.30%
XU030(TUR) -2.15%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.60%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.72%
NIFTY(IND) +1.97%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.89%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.42%

Nifty Heatmap

nifty weekly performance heatmap

Index Performance

IT and Autos led the pack…

weekly index performance

Top winners and losers

HINDALCO +7.89%
CUMMINSIND +8.62%
BHEL +11.39%
NTPC -15.14%
TATASTEEL -8.17%
NMDC -7.04%
Heavy industries did the heavy lifting. NTPC got smacked by the new power pricing scheme.

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +2.72%
BANKBEES +1.99%
NIFTYBEES +1.79%
GOLDBEES +0.22%
JUNIORBEES -0.30%
INFRABEES -1.50%
Have banks found a bottom? Infrastructure continued to get pulverized.

Advancers and decliners

Brown shoots?

advance decline line

Investment Theme Performance

Look at the performance roundup of all our Themes here.

Sector Performance

weekly sector performance

Yield curve

What the hell happened here?

weekly moves in the yield curve

Thought for the weekend

It’s time that we start describing the world as “fat” or “lean.” “Lean” societies approach consumption and production with scarcity in mind. And what makes an economy “fat”? Plenty is normal. Fat economies must stop assuming that poor countries should mimic them and instead embrace their models for social innovation and efficiency.

Source: The End of The ‘Developing World’

Investment Theme Performance Roundup

What is a “Theme”?

A StockViz Investment Theme is a portfolio of stocks that follows a particular strategy. It is a convenient way for you to:

  1. stick to a strategy
  2. follow a preset rebalancing schedule
  3. think in terms of your portfolio strategy rather than individual stocks
  4. avoid common behavioral pitfalls
  5. systematically track your P&L and strategy performance

What is an investment strategy?

An investment strategy is a specific way of going about the process of investing. It identifies specific variables that define a stock. Variables can be anything: risk, style, sector, balance-sheet items, etc..

By mapping specific Themes to your account, you ensure that you stay pure to your strategy allocation. And that there is no “flying by the seat of your pants” investing.

How have Investment Themes performed?

Splendidly. Here’s a roundup:

Theme Inception Date Returns (%) Annualized Returns(%)
Quality to Price 2013-08-28 57.99 116.31
Balance-sheet Strength 2013-09-11 41.75 90.7
Growth with Moat 2013-08-05 22.2 39.54
Financial Strength Value 2013-09-13 21.72 47.76
IT 3rd Benchers 2013-11-06 18.95 61.77
Velocity 2013-11-12 18.21 62.73
Momentum 200 2013-08-19 17.39 33.23
Market Elephants 2013-09-02 15.32 31.61
Magic Formula Investing 2013-08-19 15.06 28.78
Efficient Growth 2013-08-05 11.19 19.93
Enterprise Yield 2013-09-16 10.27 23.01
Consistent10 2013-11-18 9.82 35.87
Long Term Equity 2013-11-18 7.81 28.5
ADAG Mania 2013-07-25 4.44 7.51
Market Fliers 2013-10-28 -6.67 -20.12

What should I do next?

You should open a demat account with StockViz and invest through our Themes.

Shark-fin Innovation – Part II

A recent post on our innovation series discussed how the low cost of technology innovation is impacting incumbent industries. We also highlighted the acquisition of Simple, an online only bank by Spain’s BBVA.

Its not only BBVA that is worried about new entrants dis-intermediating traditional banking roles. Now J.P. Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon has joined the chorus: “When I go to Silicon Valley… they all want to eat our lunch. Every single one of them is going to try.” (WSJ)

J.P. Morgan, the biggest Kahuna in the most tightly regulated industry is worried about Silicon Valley. That says a lot.

Prakash brought out an interesting point in our comments thread on our shark-fin post:

facebook

Shouldn’t individual investors diversify for themselves? Isn’t it beyond the mandate of the firm’s management and board to invest in startups?
 

This article on Techcrunch sums up the argument for corporate VC investments:

“Over the last few decades one of the things that has definitely been happening with corporations is that they’ve moved to an open innovation model or outsourced R&D. They’re doing less basic research in house and essentially looking to bring that in through acquisitions,” Hochberg said.

With the cost of developing new technologies coming down so dramatically, it makes sense for corporations to take smaller bets on new technology offerings, according to Hochberg and her peers.

“A lot of what startups are about is experimentation. [Now] you can experiment at a cost of about a tenth of what it was a decade ago,” Hochberg said. “[Businesses] can actually go out and get a sense of whether these things are going to be successful a lot more quickly and at a much lower cost.”

It kills a lot of birds with one stone:

  1. Attracting quality talent into a large organization is always a challenge.
  2. Most startup-founder remuneration is back-ended – bonus only if the experiment succeeds.
  3. #2 lowers the total cost of R&D for large organizations. They lose lesser amounts on things that don’t pan out – of which there are many.
  4. Most companies may not have R&D in their DNA and are better off outsourcing it.
  5. Making seed/early-stage investments is an insurance against “big bang” disruption.

#4 should make readers reflect on the recent experience of Infosys. Their turn-around strategy is to refocus on services and hive off products into a separate company. They tried version 3.0 but decided to stick with version 2.0. (ET)

#5, along with the fact that ten-year VC returns have trailed S&P-500 (WSJ) could mean that corporate VCs might be modeling these investments as an insurance policy.
 

The jury is still out there on whether individual investors derive economic benefit from the VC activity of a corporation. But it is prudent risk-management in the face of “big bang” disruption.

[stockquote]INFY[/stockquote] [stockquote]NAUKRI[/stockquote]