Author: shyam

Monthly Recap: The Devil Always Wins

Feb world equity markets

Nifty erased most of the loses from the previous month, clocking in +3.08% (+3.75% in USD terms) for February.

Major
DAX(DEU) +6.37%
CAC(FRA) +7.29%
NKY(JPN) +5.94%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +6.16%
INMEX(MEX) -4.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -4.29%
XU030(TUR) +1.04%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.05%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.46%
TOP40(ZAF) +6.99%

Nifty Heatmap

monthly nifty heatmap

Index Performance

monthly index performance

Top winners and losers

TATAMOTORS +19.28%
INDHOTEL +19.41%
PFC +20.90%
SAIL -13.17%
NMDC -12.07%
NTPC -11.11%
The month was marked by some pretty wild swings.

ETFs

BANKBEES +4.57%
GOLDBEES +3.06%
NIFTYBEES +2.78%
JUNIORBEES +1.11%
PSUBNKBEES -0.38%
INFRABEES -1.24%
Banks and gold led the ETF pack.

Advancers and Decliners

Green shoots? Brown shoots?

advancers and decliners

Investment Theme Performance

Balance-sheet strength is +43.64% since inception. But that’s not the winningest strategy. Read our roundup to get a sense of what quantitative strategies combined with a structure that enforces discipline can do for you.

Sector Performance

monthly sector performance

Yield Curve

What do the short-term rates portend?

yield curve monthly move

Thought to sum up the month

Howard Marks, chairman of the U.S. investment firm Oaktree Capital:

There actually are two risks in investing: One is to lose money and the other is to miss opportunity. You can eliminate either one, but you can’t eliminate both at the same time.

I think of it like a comedy movie where a guy is considering some activity. On his right shoulder is sitting an angel in a white robe. He says: «No, don’t do it! It’s not prudent, it’s not a good idea, it’s not proper and you’ll get in trouble». On the other shoulder is the devil in a red robe with his pitchfork. He whispers: «Do it, you’ll get rich». In the end, the devil usually wins. Caution, maturity and doing the right thing are old-fashioned ideas.

Source: In the end, the devil usually wins

Weekly Recap: Lean vs. Fat Worlds

world equity markets weekly map

The Nifty clocked in a respectable +1.97% (+2.12% in USD terms) this week.

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.36%
CAC(FRA) +0.62%
UKX(GBR) -0.41%
NKY(JPN) -0.17%
SPX(USA) +0.84%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.56%
INMEX(MEX) -2.47%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +3.30%
XU030(TUR) -2.15%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.60%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.72%
NIFTY(IND) +1.97%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.89%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.42%

Nifty Heatmap

nifty weekly performance heatmap

Index Performance

IT and Autos led the pack…

weekly index performance

Top winners and losers

HINDALCO +7.89%
CUMMINSIND +8.62%
BHEL +11.39%
NTPC -15.14%
TATASTEEL -8.17%
NMDC -7.04%
Heavy industries did the heavy lifting. NTPC got smacked by the new power pricing scheme.

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +2.72%
BANKBEES +1.99%
NIFTYBEES +1.79%
GOLDBEES +0.22%
JUNIORBEES -0.30%
INFRABEES -1.50%
Have banks found a bottom? Infrastructure continued to get pulverized.

Advancers and decliners

Brown shoots?

advance decline line

Investment Theme Performance

Look at the performance roundup of all our Themes here.

Sector Performance

weekly sector performance

Yield curve

What the hell happened here?

weekly moves in the yield curve

Thought for the weekend

It’s time that we start describing the world as “fat” or “lean.” “Lean” societies approach consumption and production with scarcity in mind. And what makes an economy “fat”? Plenty is normal. Fat economies must stop assuming that poor countries should mimic them and instead embrace their models for social innovation and efficiency.

Source: The End of The ‘Developing World’

Investment Theme Performance Roundup

What is a “Theme”?

A StockViz Investment Theme is a portfolio of stocks that follows a particular strategy. It is a convenient way for you to:

  1. stick to a strategy
  2. follow a preset rebalancing schedule
  3. think in terms of your portfolio strategy rather than individual stocks
  4. avoid common behavioral pitfalls
  5. systematically track your P&L and strategy performance

What is an investment strategy?

An investment strategy is a specific way of going about the process of investing. It identifies specific variables that define a stock. Variables can be anything: risk, style, sector, balance-sheet items, etc..

By mapping specific Themes to your account, you ensure that you stay pure to your strategy allocation. And that there is no “flying by the seat of your pants” investing.

How have Investment Themes performed?

Splendidly. Here’s a roundup:

Theme Inception Date Returns (%) Annualized Returns(%)
Quality to Price 2013-08-28 57.99 116.31
Balance-sheet Strength 2013-09-11 41.75 90.7
Growth with Moat 2013-08-05 22.2 39.54
Financial Strength Value 2013-09-13 21.72 47.76
IT 3rd Benchers 2013-11-06 18.95 61.77
Velocity 2013-11-12 18.21 62.73
Momentum 200 2013-08-19 17.39 33.23
Market Elephants 2013-09-02 15.32 31.61
Magic Formula Investing 2013-08-19 15.06 28.78
Efficient Growth 2013-08-05 11.19 19.93
Enterprise Yield 2013-09-16 10.27 23.01
Consistent10 2013-11-18 9.82 35.87
Long Term Equity 2013-11-18 7.81 28.5
ADAG Mania 2013-07-25 4.44 7.51
Market Fliers 2013-10-28 -6.67 -20.12

What should I do next?

You should open a demat account with StockViz and invest through our Themes.

Shark-fin Innovation – Part II

A recent post on our innovation series discussed how the low cost of technology innovation is impacting incumbent industries. We also highlighted the acquisition of Simple, an online only bank by Spain’s BBVA.

Its not only BBVA that is worried about new entrants dis-intermediating traditional banking roles. Now J.P. Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon has joined the chorus: “When I go to Silicon Valley… they all want to eat our lunch. Every single one of them is going to try.” (WSJ)

J.P. Morgan, the biggest Kahuna in the most tightly regulated industry is worried about Silicon Valley. That says a lot.

Prakash brought out an interesting point in our comments thread on our shark-fin post:

facebook

Shouldn’t individual investors diversify for themselves? Isn’t it beyond the mandate of the firm’s management and board to invest in startups?
 

This article on Techcrunch sums up the argument for corporate VC investments:

“Over the last few decades one of the things that has definitely been happening with corporations is that they’ve moved to an open innovation model or outsourced R&D. They’re doing less basic research in house and essentially looking to bring that in through acquisitions,” Hochberg said.

With the cost of developing new technologies coming down so dramatically, it makes sense for corporations to take smaller bets on new technology offerings, according to Hochberg and her peers.

“A lot of what startups are about is experimentation. [Now] you can experiment at a cost of about a tenth of what it was a decade ago,” Hochberg said. “[Businesses] can actually go out and get a sense of whether these things are going to be successful a lot more quickly and at a much lower cost.”

It kills a lot of birds with one stone:

  1. Attracting quality talent into a large organization is always a challenge.
  2. Most startup-founder remuneration is back-ended – bonus only if the experiment succeeds.
  3. #2 lowers the total cost of R&D for large organizations. They lose lesser amounts on things that don’t pan out – of which there are many.
  4. Most companies may not have R&D in their DNA and are better off outsourcing it.
  5. Making seed/early-stage investments is an insurance against “big bang” disruption.

#4 should make readers reflect on the recent experience of Infosys. Their turn-around strategy is to refocus on services and hive off products into a separate company. They tried version 3.0 but decided to stick with version 2.0. (ET)

#5, along with the fact that ten-year VC returns have trailed S&P-500 (WSJ) could mean that corporate VCs might be modeling these investments as an insurance policy.
 

The jury is still out there on whether individual investors derive economic benefit from the VC activity of a corporation. But it is prudent risk-management in the face of “big bang” disruption.

[stockquote]INFY[/stockquote] [stockquote]NAUKRI[/stockquote]

Bad Idea: Indian banks selling insurance

This is a bit of a rant and I am generalizing my experience to the entire system. But something tells me that I am not too far off.

The RBI briefly flirted with the idea of allowing Indian banks to sell insurance. But have you met your bank manager? Most bank employees, managers included, are aces at accounting and process. They can point out the exact color of the forms you need to fill out, how many people up and down the chain it needs to get signed by, documents required for taking out a loan, etc. But when it comes to having a grip on finance, economy or the markets, those are not the people you want to be taking advice from. However, most people can’t tell the difference between accounting and [finance, markets, economy] and look up to them for advice in those areas. Advice that bank employees are more than willing to give.

The escape hatch is built into the system. Most employees get transferred around. My dad, who used to work for a public sector bank, was transferred almost every 3-5 years. The concept of “roots in the community” doesn’t really apply. Add to this is the fact that most insurance commissions are front-loaded. And employees don’t get a commission for taking fixed deposits. Most people follow the advice that their bank manager gives them.

So imagine this scenario where you have scraped together some savings and you go to your bank to make a fixed deposit. The banker makes more money for himself if he convinces you to take out an insurance product instead. You are a farmer with only basic knowledge of personal finance. What are you likely to do?

The skewed incentives that this presents can only lead to disaster. Plus, there is proof that agent-sold insurance in general doesn’t actually benefit the consumer:

Prices of online term plans are much lower than that of agent-sold policies and the sum assured is significantly higher. An online term policy is as much as 50% cheaper than an offline term plan for some companies. More importantly, the sum assured (money your family gets if you die) of online term plans is an average of Rs.72 lakh as compared to Rs.1.47 lakh for the insurance industry in India.

 

Private insurance agents obviously don’t like the idea and neither does LIC. Hopefully, this will be buried and the whole market moves online.

Source:

  • Why the global insurance industry is wrong (LiveMint)
  • RBI plan to turn banks into insurance brokers bad idea (IndianExpress)