USDINR
Lets start with one-the-run USDINR futures (news):
US Treasuries vs. Indian Govies
Spread between 10-year US Treasury bonds and Indian gilts:
FII/DII investment flows
(previous)
Author: shyam
Equities
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| JCI(IDN) | +1.19% |
| INMEX(MEX) | -6.09% |
| NGSEINDX(NGA) | -14.70% |
| XU030(TUR) | +3.79% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| IBOV(BRA) | -6.20% |
| SHCOMP(CHN) | -0.75% |
| NIFTY(IND) | +6.35% |
| INDEXCF(RUS) | +17.98% |
| TOP40(ZAF) | +2.60% |
Commodities
| Energy | |
|---|---|
| Heating Oil | -9.59% |
| Brent Crude Oil | -6.64% |
| Ethanol | -15.22% |
| WTI Crude Oil | -9.49% |
| Natural Gas | -9.44% |
| RBOB Gasoline | +2.30% |
| Metals | |
|---|---|
| Copper | -10.92% |
| Gold 100oz | +7.99% |
| Platinum | +2.27% |
| Palladium | -3.38% |
| Silver 5000oz | +9.55% |
Currencies
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| USDIDR(IDN) | +2.29% |
| USDMXN(MEX) | +1.54% |
| USDNGN(NGA) | +2.25% |
| USDTRY(TUR) | +4.55% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| USDBRL(BRA) | +0.94% |
| USDCNY(CHN) | +0.73% |
| USDINR(IND) | -1.86% |
| USDRUB(RUS) | +19.40% |
| USDZAR(ZAF) | +0.79% |
| Agricultural | |
|---|---|
| Cocoa | -3.55% |
| Coffee (Robusta) | +1.53% |
| Lumber | -2.74% |
| Soybean Meal | -9.07% |
| White Sugar | -2.07% |
| Soybeans | -5.88% |
| Coffee (Arabica) | -4.31% |
| Corn | -7.56% |
| Feeder Cattle | -6.25% |
| Wheat | -14.73% |
| Cattle | -6.55% |
| Cotton | -2.45% |
| Lean Hogs | -17.35% |
| Orange Juice | +0.07% |
| Sugar #11 | +1.44% |
Credit Indices
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Markit CDX EM | -2.75% |
| Markit CDX NA HY | -0.52% |
| Markit CDX NA IG | +2.54% |
| Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG | +5.51% |
| Markit iTraxx Australia | +2.89% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe | -7.13% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover | -36.06% |
| Markit iTraxx Japan | -2.64% |
| Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe | -2.88% |
| Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) | +0.24% |
| Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) | +3.87% |
We certainly started the party with a bang: Euro QE, Swiss abandon, Rajan rate-cut… Oh my!
Index Returns
Sector Performance
Advance Decline
Market Cap Decile Performance
| Decile | Mkt. Cap. | Adv/Decl |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (micro) | -3.90% | 68/66 |
| 2 | +2.62% | 79/54 |
| 3 | +0.33% | 73/60 |
| 4 | +2.82% | 81/52 |
| 5 | +4.56% | 72/61 |
| 6 | +3.52% | 81/52 |
| 7 | +7.85% | 77/56 |
| 8 | +5.76% | 76/57 |
| 9 | +5.68% | 69/64 |
| 10 (mega) | +8.38% | 69/65 |
Large caps did good. Midcaps not so much.
Top Winners and Losers
DLF – looks like the market likes the EMI scheme. M&MFIN and PNB got shellacked because of poor shows at earnings parade. The Adanis continued to entertain…
ETF Performance
| INFRABEES | +7.79% |
| NIFTYBEES | +6.68% |
| BANKBEES | +5.84% |
| JUNIORBEES | +5.46% |
| GOLDBEES | +4.65% |
| CPSEETF | -0.12% |
| PSUBNKBEES | -3.71% |
Had gold found a bottom?
Yield Curve
Bond Indices
| Sub Index | Change in YTM | Total Return(%) |
|---|---|---|
| GSEC TB | -0.33 | +0.74% |
| GSEC SUB 1-3 | -0.92 | +0.94% |
| GSEC SUB 3-8 | -0.18 | +1.48% |
| GSEC SUB 8 | -0.14 | +1.91% |
The long bond was a rock-star.
Investment Theme Performance
| Growth with Moat | +10.36% |
| Efficient Growth | +9.20% |
| Market Elephants | +8.04% |
| Financial Strength Value | +7.70% |
| Balance-sheet Strength | +5.57% |
| CNX 100 50-Day Tactical | +5.37% |
| Auto | +3.66% |
| Quality to Price | +3.53% |
| Market Fliers | +3.06% |
| Magic Formula Investing | +2.85% |
| The Other Value | +2.19% |
| IT 3rd Benchers | +2.10% |
| Old Economy Value | +1.61% |
| Momentum 200 | +1.54% |
| ADAG Mania | +0.25% |
| Enterprise Yield | +0.22% |
| Refract: PPFAS Long Term Value Fund | -1.63% |
| Piotroski ROC Small Caps | -2.80% |
comme ci comme ça…
Equity Mutual Funds
Bond Mutual Funds
Thought to sum up the month
Is there such a thing as a “perfect” value investor? Bob Goldfarb, chief executive of the legendary Sequoia Fund, was asked by Columbia University professor Louis Lowenstein “to select ten dyed-in-the-wool value investors who all followed the essential edicts of Graham and Dodd.”
Goldfarb came up with nine. For a nine-year period from 2006 through 2014, the average return of the eight funds that survived to the end was 6.70% vs. the S&P 500 Index’s 7.99%.
Source: Looking Back at James Montier’s “Perfect” Value Investors
Equities
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| JCI(IDN) | -0.65% |
| INMEX(MEX) | -4.70% |
| NGSEINDX(NGA) | -0.84% |
| XU030(TUR) | -2.36% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| IBOV(BRA) | -3.57% |
| SHCOMP(CHN) | -4.22% |
| NIFTY(IND) | -0.30% |
| INDEXCF(RUS) | -1.44% |
| TOP40(ZAF) | +3.35% |
Commodities
| Energy | |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | +8.76% |
| Natural Gas | -9.78% |
| RBOB Gasoline | +9.15% |
| Heating Oil | +2.68% |
| WTI Crude Oil | +4.59% |
| Ethanol | -4.48% |
| Metals | |
|---|---|
| Gold 100oz | -1.21% |
| Platinum | -2.23% |
| Copper | -0.39% |
| Palladium | -0.48% |
| Silver 5000oz | -6.52% |
Currencies
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| USDIDR(IDN) | +1.71% |
| USDMXN(MEX) | +2.26% |
| USDNGN(NGA) | -1.49% |
| USDTRY(TUR) | +4.01% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| USDBRL(BRA) | +3.87% |
| USDCNY(CHN) | +0.35% |
| USDINR(IND) | +0.71% |
| USDRUB(RUS) | +8.50% |
| USDZAR(ZAF) | +2.12% |
| Agricultural | |
|---|---|
| Cattle | +2.97% |
| Soybean Meal | -0.93% |
| White Sugar | -2.52% |
| Cocoa | -1.70% |
| Corn | -4.21% |
| Feeder Cattle | -0.83% |
| Soybeans | -1.54% |
| Coffee (Arabica) | +0.56% |
| Coffee (Robusta) | +1.80% |
| Lumber | +4.47% |
| Wheat | -5.64% |
| Cotton | +3.58% |
| Lean Hogs | -2.73% |
| Orange Juice | -4.10% |
| Sugar #11 | -2.50% |
Credit Indices
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Markit CDX EM | -0.47% |
| Markit CDX NA HY | -0.41% |
| Markit CDX NA IG | +0.80% |
| Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG | -2.99% |
| Markit iTraxx Australia | -1.67% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe | +0.81% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover | +3.18% |
| Markit iTraxx Japan | -2.11% |
| Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe | +0.12% |
| Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) | +0.02% |
| Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) | +0.38% |
India got off lightly in the carnage this week.
US large-cap earnings were weak due to the rapid appreciation of the US Dollar.
Oil found a bid but precious metals were hit.
US large-cap earnings were weak due to the rapid appreciation of the US Dollar.
Oil found a bid but precious metals were hit.
Nifty Heatmap
Index Returns
Sector Performance
Advance Decline
Market Cap Decile Performance
| Decile | Mkt. Cap. | Adv/Decl |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (micro) | -8.74% | 67/70 |
| 2 | -7.77% | 65/73 |
| 3 | -4.87% | 55/82 |
| 4 | -4.92% | 64/74 |
| 5 | -2.13% | 68/69 |
| 6 | -3.39% | 68/70 |
| 7 | -0.75% | 65/73 |
| 8 | -0.09% | 64/73 |
| 9 | +0.30% | 66/72 |
| 10 (mega) | +2.15% | 69/69 |
Large caps were the best performers …
Top Winners and Losers
| BPCL | +10.98% |
| ADANIENT | +11.25% |
| HINDPETRO | +13.91% |
| UNIONBANK | -16.81% |
| BANKBARODA | -13.42% |
| BANKINDIA | -9.53% |
Bank earnings were a rude wake-up call about the true state of the current economy. Bad loans from the previous boom continue to haunt financials.
ETF Performance
| INFRABEES | +1.07% |
| JUNIORBEES | +1.04% |
| NIFTYBEES | +0.31% |
| GOLDBEES | +0.06% |
| CPSEETF | -0.08% |
| BANKBEES | -0.66% |
| PSUBNKBEES | -4.44% |
Given how poorly government owned enterprises are managed, why own any PSE at all?
Yield Curve
Bond Indices
| Sub Index | Change in YTM | Total Return(%) |
|---|---|---|
| GSEC TB | +0.07 | +0.13% |
| GSEC SUB 1-3 | +0.14 | +0.06% |
| GSEC SUB 3-8 | +0.05 | +0.09% |
| GSEC SUB 8 | +0.00 | +0.21% |
Unchanged.
Investment Theme Performance
| Enterprise Yield | +9.83% |
| Growth with Moat | +3.74% |
| Market Elephants | +2.95% |
| Efficient Growth | +1.89% |
| ADAG Mania | +1.68% |
| Financial Strength Value | +0.95% |
| IT 3rd Benchers | +0.77% |
| Old Economy Value | +0.73% |
| CNX 100 50-Day Tactical | +0.68% |
| Balance-sheet Strength | +0.04% |
| Magic Formula Investing | +0.03% |
| Market Fliers | -1.00% |
| Refract: PPFAS Long Term Value Fund | -1.05% |
| Auto | -2.03% |
| Quality to Price | -2.15% |
| Piotroski ROC Small Caps | -2.80% |
| The Other Value | -2.82% |
| Momentum 200 | -5.11% |
Momentum took it on the chin this week…
Equity Mutual Funds
Bond Mutual Funds
Thought for the weekend
John Maynard Keynes was also an extraordinary investor. He was a fundamental, focused investor, similar to Warren Buffett in that he practiced buy and hold in a select group of stock holdings. But even with a small number of holdings he still tried to diversify his risks.
But given the volatility of his returns, there is no way investors would put up with this type of drawdowns in today’s investment world. Keynes would certainly be fired if he were managing money this way today.
Source: Would Keynes Have Been Fired as a Money Manager Today?
Equities
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| JCI(IDN) | +3.41% |
| INMEX(MEX) | +3.45% |
| NGSEINDX(NGA) | +2.68% |
| XU030(TUR) | +3.92% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| IBOV(BRA) | -0.62% |
| SHCOMP(CHN) | -0.73% |
| NIFTY(IND) | +3.78% |
| INDEXCF(RUS) | +5.05% |
| TOP40(ZAF) | +2.81% |
Commodities
| Energy | |
|---|---|
| Ethanol | +7.34% |
| RBOB Gasoline | +0.77% |
| Brent Crude Oil | -1.73% |
| WTI Crude Oil | -5.25% |
| Natural Gas | -4.87% |
| Heating Oil | -1.34% |
| Metals | |
|---|---|
| Gold 100oz | +1.57% |
| Platinum | -0.02% |
| Copper | -3.79% |
| Palladium | +2.81% |
| Silver 5000oz | +3.95% |
Currencies
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| USDIDR(IDN) | -1.04% |
| USDMXN(MEX) | +0.28% |
| USDNGN(NGA) | +3.07% |
| USDTRY(TUR) | +0.75% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| USDBRL(BRA) | -1.46% |
| USDCNY(CHN) | +0.34% |
| USDINR(IND) | -0.71% |
| USDRUB(RUS) | -1.89% |
| USDZAR(ZAF) | -1.42% |
| Agricultural | |
|---|---|
| Lean Hogs | -6.85% |
| Orange Juice | +0.44% |
| Sugar #11 | -0.78% |
| Wheat | -1.12% |
| White Sugar | -1.18% |
| Cattle | -2.87% |
| Corn | +0.19% |
| Cotton | -3.43% |
| Lumber | -0.03% |
| Coffee (Arabica) | -5.09% |
| Feeder Cattle | -0.29% |
| Soybean Meal | +1.41% |
| Cocoa | -4.63% |
| Coffee (Robusta) | -2.63% |
| Soybeans | -1.82% |
Credit Indices
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Markit CDX EM | -0.18% |
| Markit CDX NA HY | +0.60% |
| Markit CDX NA IG | -2.83% |
| Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG | -3.93% |
| Markit iTraxx Australia | -1.34% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe | -3.79% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover | -22.27% |
| Markit iTraxx Japan | -1.84% |
| Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe | -1.29% |
| Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) | +0.08% |
| Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) | +0.30% |
Markets rallied and the Euro tumbled on ECB’s 60bn QE program.
Index Returns
Sector Performance
Advance Decline
Market Cap Decile Performance
| Decile | Mkt. Cap. | Adv/Decl |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (micro) | -0.90% | 68/68 |
| 2 | +0.87% | 71/63 |
| 3 | +2.38% | 74/61 |
| 4 | +0.11% | 75/61 |
| 5 | +1.42% | 70/65 |
| 6 | +1.20% | 71/64 |
| 7 | +3.52% | 74/62 |
| 8 | +1.50% | 72/63 |
| 9 | +2.00% | 73/62 |
| 10 (mega) | +2.91% | 62/74 |
A broad-based rally driven by Eurozone EQ, falling oil, rate cuts, budget… Oh my!
Top Winners and Losers
| TATAMOTORS | +11.93% |
| BHARTIARTL | +12.03% |
| ADANIENT | +12.70% |
| M&MFIN | -18.22% |
| SRTRANSFIN | -5.98% |
| PETRONET | -4.61% |
The Adani stable was on fire this week…
ETF Performance
| INFRABEES | +6.67% |
| BANKBEES | +4.46% |
| NIFTYBEES | +3.59% |
| GOLDBEES | +1.78% |
| JUNIORBEES | +1.77% |
| CPSEETF | +0.64% |
| PSUBNKBEES | +0.27% |
No asset left behind…
Yield Curve
Bond Indices
| Sub Index | Change in YTM | Total Return(%) |
|---|---|---|
| GSEC TB | -0.11 | +0.18% |
| GSEC SUB 1-3 | +0.06 | +0.21% |
| GSEC SUB 3-8 | +0.08 | -0.05% |
| GSEC SUB 8 | +0.04 | -0.11% |
Weird that the long end of the curve ended the week in the red.
Investment Theme Performance
| CNX 100 50-Day Tactical | +2.68% |
| ADAG Mania | +2.64% |
| Momentum 200 | +2.58% |
| Efficient Growth | +2.19% |
| Market Elephants | +1.89% |
| Magic Formula Investing | +1.89% |
| Quality to Price | +1.63% |
| Auto | +1.21% |
| Growth with Moat | +0.96% |
| Balance-sheet Strength | +0.81% |
| Market Fliers | +0.72% |
| Financial Strength Value | +0.56% |
| Old Economy Value | +0.15% |
| Refract: PPFAS Long Term Value Fund | +0.01% |
| The Other Value | -0.28% |
| IT 3rd Benchers | -1.48% |
| Piotroski ROC Small Caps | -1.83% |
Large-cap dominance drove CNX 100 Tactical this week. Momentum was not far behind…
Thought for the weekend
Research:
Study participants from a range of ages generally did not enjoy spending even brief periods of time alone in a room with nothing to do but think, ponder or daydream. The participants, by and large, enjoyed much more doing external activities such as listening to music or using a smartphone. Some even preferred to give themselves mild electric shocks than to think.
Source: Most people are just not comfortable in their own heads
We often like to quote Howard Marks before we begin any discussion on diversification:
If you concentrate your portfolio, your mistakes will kill you;
If you diversify, the payoff from your successes will be diminished.
If you diversify, the payoff from your successes will be diminished.
Irrespective of what your preference is, you can now track it on StockViz. Head over to Portfolio and click on ‘Analytics.’ You should see one-year and one-month correlation charts of your portfolio right away. These are updated overnight.
Here’s how my one-month correlation chart looks like. How does yours look like?
