Author: shyam

Multinationals Listed in India

Multinational companies (MNCs) listed in India, like Bosch, Colgate, etc, are generally considered to be well managed, cash-rich businesses. Lets take a look at their past performance and some actively managed funds that focus on them. It may be worth your while to add some MNC goodness to your portfolio.

MNCs vs. Top 100

Our first stop is first check if MNCs indeed outperform the market. For this, lets compare the CNX MNC index to the CNX 100 index.

Between 2005-01-03 and 2015-02-02, CNX MNC has returned a cumulative 453.68% with an IRR of 18.49% vs. CNX 100’s cumulative return of 318.85% and an IRR of 15.26%. (permalink) Apart from a brief period of under-performance between 2007 and 2008, MNCs have generally done better than the rest of the market.

MNCs vs. Midcaps

Between 2010-01-04 and 2015-02-02, CNX MNC has returned a cumulative 108.14% with an IRR of 15.31% vs. BSE MID CAP’s cumulative return of 58.41% and an IRR of 9.47%. (permalink) #winning

MNC funds

There are a couple of funds, one from UTI and the other from Birla Sun Life that focus purely on MNCs. Here’s how the UTI fund has performed:

Between 2006-04-03 and 2015-02-02, UTI – MNC Fund has returned a cumulative 283.13% with an IRR of 16.41% vs. CNX MNC’s cumulative return of 182.80% and an IRR of 12.10%. (permalink)

Between the two of them, UTI’s fund’s IRR of 37.12% is eclipsed by BSL’s 41.52% between 2013-01-02 and 2015-02-02 (a shorter time-period of comparison.) (permalink)

But irrespective of which fund you choose, the excess returns cannot be ignored. And of course, past-performance is not indicative of the future.

Monthly Recap: The Perfect Investor

world.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +9.06%
CAC(FRA) +7.76%
UKX(GBR) +2.79%
NKY(JPN) +1.28%
SPX(USA) -3.90%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.19%
INMEX(MEX) -6.09%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -14.70%
XU030(TUR) +3.79%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.20%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.75%
NIFTY(IND) +6.35%
INDEXCF(RUS) +17.98%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.60%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -9.59%
Brent Crude Oil -6.64%
Ethanol -15.22%
WTI Crude Oil -9.49%
Natural Gas -9.44%
RBOB Gasoline +2.30%
Metals
Copper -10.92%
Gold 100oz +7.99%
Platinum +2.27%
Palladium -3.38%
Silver 5000oz +9.55%

Currencies

USDEUR:+7.28% USDJPY:-1.96%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.54%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.25%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.55%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.94%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.73%
USDINR(IND) -1.86%
USDRUB(RUS) +19.40%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.79%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.55%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.53%
Lumber -2.74%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
White Sugar -2.07%
Soybeans -5.88%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.31%
Corn -7.56%
Feeder Cattle -6.25%
Wheat -14.73%
Cattle -6.55%
Cotton -2.45%
Lean Hogs -17.35%
Orange Juice +0.07%
Sugar #11 +1.44%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.75%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.52%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.54%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.51%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.89%
Markit iTraxx Europe -7.13%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -36.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.64%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.88%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.24%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.87%
We certainly started the party with a bang: Euro QE, Swiss abandon, Rajan rate-cut… Oh my!

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.90% 68/66
2 +2.62% 79/54
3 +0.33% 73/60
4 +2.82% 81/52
5 +4.56% 72/61
6 +3.52% 81/52
7 +7.85% 77/56
8 +5.76% 76/57
9 +5.68% 69/64
10 (mega) +8.38% 69/65
Large caps did good. Midcaps not so much.

Top Winners and Losers

HINDUNILVR +22.69%
DLF +23.65%
ADANIENT +28.99%
M&MFIN -22.56%
PETRONET -13.76%
PNB -13.44%
DLF – looks like the market likes the EMI scheme. M&MFIN and PNB got shellacked because of poor shows at earnings parade. The Adanis continued to entertain…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +7.79%
NIFTYBEES +6.68%
BANKBEES +5.84%
JUNIORBEES +5.46%
GOLDBEES +4.65%
CPSEETF -0.12%
PSUBNKBEES -3.71%
Had gold found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.33 +0.74%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.92 +0.94%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.18 +1.48%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.14 +1.91%
The long bond was a rock-star.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Is there such a thing as a “perfect” value investor? Bob Goldfarb, chief executive of the legendary Sequoia Fund, was asked by Columbia University professor Louis Lowenstein “to select ten dyed-in-the-wool value investors who all followed the essential edicts of Graham and Dodd.”

Goldfarb came up with nine. For a nine-year period from 2006 through 2014, the average return of the eight funds that survived to the end was 6.70% vs. the S&P 500 Index’s 7.99%.

Source: Looking Back at James Montier’s “Perfect” Value Investors

Weekly Recap: You would have fired Keynes

world.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.42%
CAC(FRA) -0.79%
UKX(GBR) -1.22%
NKY(JPN) +0.93%
SPX(USA) -3.20%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.65%
INMEX(MEX) -4.70%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.84%
XU030(TUR) -2.36%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.57%
SHCOMP(CHN) -4.22%
NIFTY(IND) -0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.44%
TOP40(ZAF) +3.35%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +8.76%
Natural Gas -9.78%
RBOB Gasoline +9.15%
Heating Oil +2.68%
WTI Crude Oil +4.59%
Ethanol -4.48%
Metals
Gold 100oz -1.21%
Platinum -2.23%
Copper -0.39%
Palladium -0.48%
Silver 5000oz -6.52%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.39% USDJPY:-0.26%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.71%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.26%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.01%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.87%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.35%
USDINR(IND) +0.71%
USDRUB(RUS) +8.50%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.12%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.97%
Soybean Meal -0.93%
White Sugar -2.52%
Cocoa -1.70%
Corn -4.21%
Feeder Cattle -0.83%
Soybeans -1.54%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.56%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.80%
Lumber +4.47%
Wheat -5.64%
Cotton +3.58%
Lean Hogs -2.73%
Orange Juice -4.10%
Sugar #11 -2.50%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.47%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.41%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.80%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.99%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.67%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.81%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.18%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.11%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.12%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.38%
India got off lightly in the carnage this week.
US large-cap earnings were weak due to the rapid appreciation of the US Dollar.
Oil found a bid but precious metals were hit.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -8.74% 67/70
2 -7.77% 65/73
3 -4.87% 55/82
4 -4.92% 64/74
5 -2.13% 68/69
6 -3.39% 68/70
7 -0.75% 65/73
8 -0.09% 64/73
9 +0.30% 66/72
10 (mega) +2.15% 69/69
Large caps were the best performers …

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +10.98%
ADANIENT +11.25%
HINDPETRO +13.91%
UNIONBANK -16.81%
BANKBARODA -13.42%
BANKINDIA -9.53%
Bank earnings were a rude wake-up call about the true state of the current economy. Bad loans from the previous boom continue to haunt financials.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +1.07%
JUNIORBEES +1.04%
NIFTYBEES +0.31%
GOLDBEES +0.06%
CPSEETF -0.08%
BANKBEES -0.66%
PSUBNKBEES -4.44%
Given how poorly government owned enterprises are managed, why own any PSE at all?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.07 +0.13%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.14 +0.06%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.05 +0.09%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.00 +0.21%
Unchanged.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

John Maynard Keynes was also an extraordinary investor. He was a fundamental, focused investor, similar to Warren Buffett in that he practiced buy and hold in a select group of stock holdings. But even with a small number of holdings he still tried to diversify his risks.

But given the volatility of his returns, there is no way investors would put up with this type of drawdowns in today’s investment world. Keynes would certainly be fired if he were managing money this way today.

Source: Would Keynes Have Been Fired as a Money Manager Today?

Weekly Recap: Electric Shocks

world.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.74%
CAC(FRA) +5.96%
UKX(GBR) +4.31%
NKY(JPN) +3.84%
SPX(USA) +2.19%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.41%
INMEX(MEX) +3.45%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.68%
XU030(TUR) +3.92%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.62%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.73%
NIFTY(IND) +3.78%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.05%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.81%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +7.34%
RBOB Gasoline +0.77%
Brent Crude Oil -1.73%
WTI Crude Oil -5.25%
Natural Gas -4.87%
Heating Oil -1.34%
Metals
Gold 100oz +1.57%
Platinum -0.02%
Copper -3.79%
Palladium +2.81%
Silver 5000oz +3.95%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.13% USDJPY:+0.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.04%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.28%
USDNGN(NGA) +3.07%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.75%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.46%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.34%
USDINR(IND) -0.71%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.42%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs -6.85%
Orange Juice +0.44%
Sugar #11 -0.78%
Wheat -1.12%
White Sugar -1.18%
Cattle -2.87%
Corn +0.19%
Cotton -3.43%
Lumber -0.03%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.09%
Feeder Cattle -0.29%
Soybean Meal +1.41%
Cocoa -4.63%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.63%
Soybeans -1.82%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.18%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.60%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.34%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.79%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -22.27%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.84%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.29%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.08%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.30%
Markets rallied and the Euro tumbled on ECB’s 60bn QE program.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.90% 68/68
2 +0.87% 71/63
3 +2.38% 74/61
4 +0.11% 75/61
5 +1.42% 70/65
6 +1.20% 71/64
7 +3.52% 74/62
8 +1.50% 72/63
9 +2.00% 73/62
10 (mega) +2.91% 62/74
A broad-based rally driven by Eurozone EQ, falling oil, rate cuts, budget… Oh my!

Top Winners and Losers

TATAMOTORS +11.93%
BHARTIARTL +12.03%
ADANIENT +12.70%
M&MFIN -18.22%
SRTRANSFIN -5.98%
PETRONET -4.61%
The Adani stable was on fire this week…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +6.67%
BANKBEES +4.46%
NIFTYBEES +3.59%
GOLDBEES +1.78%
JUNIORBEES +1.77%
CPSEETF +0.64%
PSUBNKBEES +0.27%
No asset left behind…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.11 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.06 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 -0.05%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.11%
Weird that the long end of the curve ended the week in the red.

Investment Theme Performance

Large-cap dominance drove CNX 100 Tactical this week. Momentum was not far behind…

Thought for the weekend

Research:

Study participants from a range of ages generally did not enjoy spending even brief periods of time alone in a room with nothing to do but think, ponder or daydream. The participants, by and large, enjoyed much more doing external activities such as listening to music or using a smartphone. Some even preferred to give themselves mild electric shocks than to think.

Source: Most people are just not comfortable in their own heads