Author: Abhishek

Analysis: CAIRN

Today’s pick is CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a rush to Rs. 400. The momentum exhausted and left the stock plunging to Rs. 300 levels by May. The stock tested this support level quite many times since then and has just started moving up after breaking out of the pennant in late December. In the last three months, the stock has not moved at all vs. +6% move of the Nifty’s.

CAIRN technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are close to the over-bought territory but are not showing any bias.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Although decreasing histogram levels are pointing to an imminent short-term bearish move. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

CAIRN correlation chart

CAIRN’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

CAIRN volaitility chart

CAIRN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Life insurance corporation of India bought Rs 1,291 Crore worth of shares on 3rd Jan in an insider trade instance.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A Long-term call could be taken once the GMMA lines start to spread and give out a positive cue. It will be beneficial to have trailing stop-losses in place, in order to book profits if a trend-reversal were to take place.

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Preetam’s List

Market Roundup: US markets were closed on Monday. Gold +0.03% to $1691. London+0.43%. Germany +0.61%. France +0.57%. Asian markets trading flat.

India on Monday raised the import duty on gold to 6% from 4%, stepping up efforts to curb the import of the yellow metal. Government also proposed to link gold exchange-traded funds or ETFs and the gold deposit schemes of banks to encourage investors to use existing gold stock in the domestic market. This step will help country to lower the current-account deficit. [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote] (MINT)

Housing Development Finance Corporation [stockquote]HDFC[/stockquote] may have missed analysts’ estimates, but a 16% year-on-year rise in its net profit in the quarter to December 2012 was backed by a spurt in loan growth, mostly from the retail segment, and its robust asset quality. Loan growth has been strong, with the individual loan book growing by 31% from a year ago, after adding the loans sold. (ET)

Spanish exports fell 0.6 percent in November from the same month the previous year, when they had risen 7.4 percent. Officials predict the euro-area’s fourth-biggest economy faces a further slump this year at a time when the government will struggle to meet its budget goals. It is expected that the toll on economic output may have kept as many as 6 million people out of work. Data expected on Thursday. (Bloomberg)

Total loans restructured by Indian banks under the so-called corporate debt restructuring (CDR) route crossed Rs.2 trillion in December. In the October-December quarter, banks restructured Rs.24,584 crore of loans, up from Rs.19,544 crore they recast in the previous quarter, to reach Rs.2.12 trillion. Many analysts suspect that 25-30% of the restructured loans may turn bad unless there is a significant revival in the economy. (MINT)

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Analysis: HDFCBANK (HDB)

Today’s pick is HDFCBANK [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an up-move for most part of the year and it experienced the 52 weeks high of Rs. 700 in November. Since then the stock has been in a downward sloping flag formation. In the last three months, the stock has moved +4% vs. +7% of the Nifty’s.

HDFCBANK technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory and are suggesting a short-term bullish price action. The stock is close to the lower Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bullish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

HDFCBANK correlation chart

HDFCBANK’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.71 is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be closely replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

HDFCBANK volatility chart

HDFCBANK has a historical volatility in the range of 1.0 to 4.0. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Analysts have positive expectations regarding this stock. Less than expected earnings might hit the street expectations in the coming reviews and might impact the stock as well.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A break-out of the flag in either direction will trigger a longer-term call.

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Preetam’s List

Friday’s action: Dow +0.39% to 13649. S&P +0.34% to 1486. Gold +0.39% to $1691. London+0.36% . Germany 0.43%. France -0.07%.

With India’s key equity indices trading near all-time highs after a prolonged lull, private equity (PE) funds are feeling the heat from investors to cash out from their investments in public equity even as several mid and small cap shares, which constitute a majority of PE investments, continue to lag behind. (MINT)

SEBI has provided an option to institutional investors to bid for shares without paying any margin, but such bidders cannot cancel or revise the bids to a lower price, but can raise them, a move that will benefit the government’s divestment program and companies to meet minimum public holding rules. (ET)

VIX, retreated 8.2 percent to 12.46 today and has tumbled 45 percent since Dec. 28 whereas the markets have moved up 6% during the same period. And is at its lowest level since April 2007. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against losses in the S&P 500, which has risen 6 percent in three weeks. The story is similar for Indian VIX as well. (Bloomberg) India VIX

Reliance Industries [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote] has bought back shares worth over Rs 3,900 crore from public shareholders through an about year-long share repurchase programme, achieving just about 38 per cent of the target. Market analysts believe the purpose of the buyback was price stability and ensuring investor confidence in the stock, which the company has successfully achieved. (ET)

On January 10th the interest rate on Spanish ten-year government bonds fell below 5% for the first time in almost a year. The cost of new government borrowing is now about 2.5 percentage points lower than it was when worries over a break-up of the euro area peaked in July 2012 . The rate on ten-year Italian debt is approaching 4%, which is also close to 2.5 percentage points off the highs last year. (Economist)

Good luck!

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