Weekly Recap: Munger on Risk

world.2015-09-04.2015-09-11

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.85%
CAC(FRA) +0.57%
UKX(GBR) +1.24%
NKY(JPN) +2.65%
SPX(USA) +2.36%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.24%
INMEX(MEX) +0.34%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.60%
XU030(TUR) -2.08%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.20%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.27%
NIFTY(IND) +1.75%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.17%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.22%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -3.80%
WTI Crude Oil -3.66%
Heating Oil -3.50%
RBOB Gasoline -3.51%
Ethanol +2.12%
Natural Gas +1.02%
Metals
Palladium +2.49%
Platinum -2.16%
Silver 5000oz -0.68%
Copper +6.47%
Gold 100oz -1.58%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.62% USDJPY:+1.40%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.06%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.51%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.12%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.57%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.30%
USDINR(IND) +0.11%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.22%
USDZAR(ZAF) -2.15%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -2.16%
Cotton +2.60%
Sugar #11 +4.19%
White Sugar -0.09%
Corn +7.38%
Cocoa +2.20%
Feeder Cattle -0.42%
Lean Hogs -2.41%
Soybean Meal +0.22%
Soybeans +1.34%
Wheat +3.44%
Cattle +0.06%
Coffee (Robusta) -3.02%
Lumber +6.22%
Orange Juice -5.97%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.04%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.30%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.02%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -5.46%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.71%
Markit iTraxx Europe -2.42%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -11.48%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.82%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.17%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.27%
Markets ended in the green after the brutal beating it took the previous week. The VIX ended below 25 but is still way about its long-run average. The next week is going to be all about the US Fed – and maybe a short-covering rally ahead of Thursday’s meeting.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-09-04.2015-09-11

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-09-04.2015-09-11

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -5.60% 60/73
2 -3.21% 59/74
3 -3.70% 58/76
4 -2.97% 59/74
5 -2.98% 59/74
6 -3.00% 63/71
7 -3.32% 57/76
8 -2.20% 65/69
9 -1.38% 59/74
10 (mega) -0.37% 65/69
Overall, markets were down – NIFTY’s performance did not bleed into the rest of the market…

Top Winners and Losers

CONCOR +9.40%
YESBANK +9.85%
RCOM +11.02%
INFRATEL -8.11%
MOTHERSUMI -4.99%
ADANIPORTS -4.83%
A mixed bag of a market…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +3.37%
PSUBNKBEES +3.17%
BANKBEES +2.16%
NIFTYBEES +1.50%
CPSEETF +0.00%
GOLDBEES -1.08%
JUNIORBEES -1.17%
Gold continued to tank…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-09-04.2015-09-11

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.01 +0.12%
5 10 +0.03 -0.01%
10 15 +0.02 +0.02%
15 20 +0.04 -0.18%
20 30 +0.01 -0.02%
Bond yields ticked up marginally…

Investment Theme Performance

Hopefully, in the first stages of recovering from their drawdowns…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thoughts for the weekend

Charlie Munger on Risk:

  1. Risk to us is a) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or b) the risk of inadequate return.
  2. Using a stock’s volatility as a measure of risk is nuts.
  3. Volatility is an overworked concept. You shouldn’t be imprisoned by volatility.
  4. Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.
  5. When any person offers you a chance to earn lots of money without risk, don’t listen to the rest of their sentence.

Source: A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Charlie Munger about Risk