Tag: weekly

Weekly Recap: Manufactured Complexity

nifty weekly performance

The Nifty rallied 3.81% this week, largely on the back of the new RBI Governor’s “Big Bang” entry.

Index Performance

Banks rallied on the back of RBI’s FX swaps that is expected to bring in $10bn from non-resident deposits.

index performance

Top Winners and Losers

ICICIBANK +19.24%
BHEL +19.54%
YESBANK +20.38%
SESAGOA -7.02%
TATAPOWER -6.66%
HEROMOTOCO -5.68%
Say Yes to Yes Bank? After spending most of 2013 in the boondocks, it appears that RBI’s measures was what the market was waiting for…

ETFs

BANKBEES +10.04%
NIFTYBEES +4.09%
JUNIORBEES +2.48%
INFRABEES +1.53%
GOLDBEES -1.79%
PSUBNKBEES -8.24%
PSU (State-owned) banks did not feel the same love that private banks felt. Gold is probably more exposed to currency fluctuations than the macro at this point…

Advancers and Decliners

Are we at the cusp of a breakthrough here?

advance decline

Yield Curve

Rates ended lower across the curve but the term-structure remains inverted.
yield curve

Sector Performance

IT corrected and banks rallied…
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

For all their great work, it is unclear that economists have actually helped government officials manage the complex task of managing a national economy any better than they ever have. We are bedeviled by manufactured complexity — complexity that could have been avoided but has instead been amplified by the pursuit of narrow knowledge in a broad world.

Source: Our Self-Inflicted Complexity

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Weekly Recap: 3 Factors

NIFTY.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

This was one volatile week for Nifty: -0.66% for the week but huge gyrations throughout.

Index Performance

If you thought banks were the worst performers, given RBI moves, think again. It was media and pharma stocks that got walloped.

indexperf.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Top winners and losers

SAIL +14.25%
SESAGOA +17.50%
TATASTEEL +19.95%
ACC -14.60%
ADANIPORTS -13.10%
DABUR -12.11%
Metal stocks rallied on the back of China’s PMI holding up better than what the doomsayers were predicting… Is Dabur a buying opportunity at these levels?

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +2.27%
GOLDBEES +1.68%
INFRABEES -0.34%
NIFTYBEES -1.41%
BANKBEES -1.59%
JUNIORBEES -4.36%
Looks like there was some dip buying in PSU banks but you know what they say about catching falling knifes…

Advancers and Decliners

adline2.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Yield Curve

Inverted but stable… its like saying the patient in the ICU is in a stable coma…
yieldCurve.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Sector Performance

Metal and mining stocks rallied away… is the market pricing in a turn of the cycle already?

sectorperf.2013-08-16.2013-08-23

Thought for the weekend

Europe at first lagged well behind India and China in numerous technologies, such as cotton processing and textile spinning, its economic development leapt ahead because of 3 factors. Elites were legally blocked from expropriating property; contracts could be enforced; and the West developed cultural emphases on independent thinking, secularism, and saving money, fostering the growth of technology and human capital.

Source: A History of the World in Three Sentences

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Weekly Recap: Buy One Suit, Get Three Free

NIFTY.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

The Nifty went down 1.04% for the week, but yesterday was the proverbial “Black Friday” with the index tanking -4.08% in one day.

Index Performance

Banks were the worst hit with NPAs coming to roost. Plus the CBI is investigating debt restructurings that were a bet too promoter friendly.

indexperf.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

Top winners and losers

ABIRLANUVO +8.71%
IDEA +8.83%
TATAMOTORS +12.61%
BHEL -10.09%
TITAN -9.05%
YESBANK -8.74%
Titan was the lamb to the slaughter with the RBI and the Finance Ministry hell bent on curbing jewelry sales. Idea continued to baffle sane investors.

ETFs

GOLDBEES +8.50%
INFRABEES -0.10%
NIFTYBEES -0.76%
JUNIORBEES -1.24%
BANKBEES -3.46%
PSUBNKBEES -11.62%
Banks got no respite while paper gold surged. How long before the government annexes the gold in the gold ETFs?

Advancers and Decliners

adline2.2013-08-09.2013-08-16

Yield Curve

The yield curve continued to shift up. Maturities out 5 years mostly flat but short-term looks stressed.

yieldCurve.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

Sector Performance

2-3 wheelers over-turned their last week’s under-performance.

sectorperf.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

Thought for the Weekend

Linear thinking is dangerous. It is the easiest form of reasoning, lying on the path of least resistance. The simpler the path, the more readily people will march along it. Linear arguments are easy to make, as they require the least amount of evidence — past data points with a straight line drawn through them. However, the larger the crowd that follows the wrong line of reasoning, the more people pile in, and the greater the consequences if they are proved wrong.

Source: Ben Bernanke: Buy One Suit, Get Three Free

 

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Weekly Recap: I don’t know

Nify heatmap

The Nifty continued its slide, down -1.98%. Some of the beaten down sectors staged a dead-cat bounce. The new RBI governor is likely to follow Brazil and Turkey in hiking short-term rates to stabilize the currency and tame inflation. Meanwhile, overly leveraged business are going to take a hit. Not to mention the worsening of the payment situation in the infrastructure and real-estate sectors.

Index Performance

Nifty Index performance

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +17.08%
PFC +17.64%
RANBAXY +31.53%
BHEL -21.52%
ASIANPAINT -13.40%
GSKCONS -11.27%
Ranbaxy was the turn-around story of the year (so far…) It appears that investors are finally able to overlook short-term challenges and look at longer-term growth.

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +3.41%
GOLDBEES +1.38%
PSUBNKBEES -0.76%
NIFTYBEES -2.48%
INFRABEES -4.42%
BANKBEES -5.98%
Banks continued to get crushed.

Advancers and Decliners

Not a bull in sight…
advancers-decliners

Yield Curve

The yield curve seems to have stabilized. However the RBI did announce further liquidity tightening measures after the markets closed yesterday.
yield curve

Sector Performance

sector performance

Thought for the weekend

Sometimes I am asked things I could not possibly know, particularly about the future. Rather than guess, I believe the best approach is to admit the truth, then plan accordingly. The alternative is to do what too many people do: Make predictions, then marry those forecasts. This usually leads to catastrophic results.

Source: On the Value of Not Knowing

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Weekly Recap: The Blip

NIFTY.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

 

The Nifty went down on both knees, down -3.54%, and Financial Tech and MCX got bent. IT was once again the best performing sector, benefiting from the Rupee’s slide.

Index Performance

indexperf.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

 

Top winners and losers (CNX 100)

 

LUPIN +4.22%
BAJAJHLDNG +4.28%
TITAN +8.13%
JPASSOCIAT -28.78%
DLF -25.47%
PFC -19.20%
Investors were willing to ignore compressed margin at Titan and ramped the stock higher. DLF reflected the credit crunch in real-estate and infra.

ETFs

BANKBEES +0.86%
GOLDBEES +0.49%
INFRABEES +0.47%
NIFTYBEES -2.36%
PSUBNKBEES -2.76%
JUNIORBEES -6.72%
Banks tried to stage a comeback but the Junior Nifty got dragged down by the troubles at Financial Tech.

Advancers and Decliners

A lot of breakage here. Tread carefully.
adline2.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

Yield Curve

Yield curve

The yield curve remained inverted with long term rates trending higher.

Sector Performance

Sector perfornamce

Though for the weekend

During the whole modern era from 1750 onward—which contains, not coincidentally, the full life span of the United States—human well-being accelerated at a rate that could barely have been contemplated before. Instead of permanent stagnation, growth became so rapid and so seemingly automatic that by the fifties and sixties the average American would roughly double his or her parents’ standard of living. In the space of a single generation, for most everybody, life was getting twice as good.

At some point in the late sixties or early seventies, this great acceleration began to taper off. The shift was modest at first, and it was concealed in the hectic up-and-down of yearly data. But if you examine the growth data since the early seventies, and if you are mathematically astute enough to fit a curve to it, you can see a clear trend: The rate at which life is improving here, on the frontier of human well-being, has slowed.

Source: The Blip

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