Tag: weekly

Weekly Recap: Happiness of Pursuit

world.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Equities

The Nifty ended the week +0.52% (+0.46% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.40%
CAC(FRA) +3.02%
UKX(GBR) +0.66%
NKY(JPN) -0.74%
SPX(USA) +0.65%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.19%
INMEX(MEX) +1.21%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.08%
XU030(TUR) +1.92%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +5.11%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.05%
NIFTY(IND) +0.52%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.85%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.77%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.94%
Ethanol +1.57%
Heating Oil +0.86%
Natural Gas +6.38%
RBOB Gasoline -4.09%
WTI Crude Oil +2.51%
Metals
Copper -1.88%
Gold 100oz +0.61%
Palladium +2.14%
Platinum +0.23%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.81% USDJPY:+0.14%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.14%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.37%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.19%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.64%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -2.02%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.15%
USDINR(IND) +0.07%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.80%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.23%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.84%
Cocoa -0.10%
Coffee (Arabica) +7.11%
Coffee (Robusta) +2.72%
Corn -1.91%
Cotton +0.58%
Feeder Cattle +1.24%
Lean Hogs +5.69%
Lumber -0.54%
Orange Juice +2.30%
Soybean Meal +1.62%
Soybeans -6.68%
Sugar #11 -0.96%
Wheat -0.27%
White Sugar -0.73%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.13%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.02%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.34%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -1.60%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.81%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.53%
Markit iTraxx Europe -2.39%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -15.19%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.89%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.60%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -4.63%
SPX crossed 2000 for the first time after the dot-com crash. Credit indices, especially that of Europe, ended mostly in the green. Its not pretty in Europe and QE might just be around the corner…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Index Returns

index performance.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Market Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -7.31% 69/70
2 -4.28% 64/73
3 -0.70% 65/73
4 -0.68% 60/79
5 -0.67% 75/63
6 -0.80% 67/71
7 -0.85% 69/70
8 -0.45% 69/69
9 -1.05% 68/70
10 (mega) +0.25% 68/71
It was the large caps that held the market up. Small and mid-cap consolidation continued…

Top winners and losers

GODREJCP +6.11%
GSKCONS +6.78%
BAJAJFINSV +9.10%
JINDALSTEL -20.86%
RPOWER -13.36%
DLF -8.96%
All eyes and ears on the Supreme Court’s decision on the coal scam on Monday. Will they de-allocate and order a fresh bidding? Will they take a more pragmatic approach?

ETFs

NIFTYBEES +0.74%
INFRABEES +0.42%
JUNIORBEES -0.10%
GOLDBEES -0.12%
BANKBEES -0.22%
PSUBNKBEES -2.08%
PSU banks – the biggest drain on Indian productivity?

Investment theme performance

High beta got pummeled due to its banks and real estate exposure. Momentum ended flat.

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Bond indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.07 +0.12%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.07 +0.15%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.15 +0.69%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.11 +0.95%
Long bond yields continued to compress. If India’s credit rating doesn’t get revised higher, will we see a snap-back?

September Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

September BankNifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-08-22.2014-08-28

Thought for the weekend

New research throws doubt on the classical idea that people are driven by relentless and consistent pursuit of self-interest to maximise their well-being. Nobel laureate Daniel McFadden: “We are in fact challenged by choice and we use all kinds of ways such as procrastination to avoid having to make choices. One of the reasons is that there are risks associated with making choices.”

The hedonic treadmill we are on can be characterised as not the pursuit happiness but the happiness of pursuit. That’s what that people really care about.

Source: Understanding better how people really make choices

Weekly Recap: Is e-commerce a head-fake?

world equity markets 2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Equities

The Nifty ended the week +1.56% (+2.60% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.24%
CAC(FRA) +1.13%
UKX(GBR) +1.35%
NKY(JPN) +1.47%
SPX(USA) +1.83%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.84%
INMEX(MEX) +1.55%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.45%
XU030(TUR) +1.79%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.95%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.56%
NIFTY(IND) +1.56%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.50%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.14%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.25%
Ethanol -0.74%
Heating Oil +0.36%
Natural Gas -1.71%
RBOB Gasoline +2.71%
WTI Crude Oil -2.23%
Metals
Copper +3.90%
Gold 100oz -2.44%
Palladium +0.54%
Platinum -3.10%
Silver 5000oz -2.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.92% USDJPY:+1.42%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.05%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.38%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.25%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.08%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.47%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.00%
USDINR(IND) -0.49%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.48%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.35%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.57%
Cocoa -0.77%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.41%
Coffee (Robusta) +2.16%
Corn +0.62%
Cotton +5.75%
Feeder Cattle +0.71%
Lean Hogs -18.68%
Lumber +2.62%
Orange Juice -2.15%
Soybean Meal -3.84%
Soybeans -8.63%
Sugar #11 -2.01%
Wheat +2.38%
White Sugar -1.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.16%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.31%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.67%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -5.81%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.49%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.86%
Markit iTraxx Europe -5.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -19.04%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.98%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.37%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.40%
It was a good week for the markets. Both equities and credit did well. Longs ended strong!

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Index Returns

index performance.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 +2.25% 69/66
2 +6.22% 78/57
3 +4.32% 77/56
4 +5.44% 79/57
5 +6.02% 77/57
6 +5.75% 77/58
7 +4.54% 74/61
8 +4.98% 73/61
9 +3.68% 77/58
10 +1.97% 69/66
An across the board rally is quite a sight!

Top Winners and Losers

HINDPETRO +10.63%
CIPLA +11.30%
UNIONBANK +14.86%
HDFC -7.09%
INFRATEL -4.65%
ITC -3.70%
Banks and pharma did well this week…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +5.21%
BANKBEES +4.66%
JUNIORBEES +3.60%
NIFTYBEES +1.57%
INFRABEES +0.91%
GOLDBEES -2.05%
PSU Banks finally put in an up week…

Investment Theme Performance

All strategies in the green. Confirms what the market decile performance scan showed…

Yield curve

yield Curve.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.05 +0.20%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.14 -0.01%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.05 +0.20%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.03 -0.27%
This is interesting: Franklin Templeton bought a record Rs 16,000-crore government securities in a day. (ET)

August Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

August BankNifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Thought for the weekend

E-commerce operations aren’t as cheap to run as most people think. Their economics greatly resemble those of mail order catalogs and they aren’t all favorable. E-commerce companies ship to customers from large, expensive, highly productive fulfillment centers. A state-of-the-art center can cost $250 million or more to build, or about 10 times as much as a big box store. And competition is growing while growth is slowing.

US E-Commerce Growth

Source: Online Shopping Isn’t as Profitable as You Think (HBR)

Weekly Recap: The 2% Mindset

world.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

The Nifty ended the week +2.95% (+3.79% in USD terms.)

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.92%
CAC(FRA) +0.64%
UKX(GBR) +1.85%
NKY(JPN) +3.65%
SPX(USA) +1.48%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.88%
INMEX(MEX) +1.51%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.86%
XU030(TUR) -3.83%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.39%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.47%
NIFTY(IND) +2.95%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.27%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.21%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.13%
Ethanol +6.41%
Heating Oil -0.97%
Natural Gas -4.59%
RBOB Gasoline -1.68%
WTI Crude Oil -0.31%
Metals
Copper -2.21%
Gold 100oz -0.35%
Palladium +3.60%
Platinum -1.31%
Silver 5000oz -2.01%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.07% USDJPY:+0.28%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.86%
USDMXN(MEX) -1.25%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.36%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.02%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.07%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.15%
USDINR(IND) -0.61%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.00%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.62%
Agricultural
Cattle -1.08%
Cocoa +2.47%
Coffee (Arabica) +4.01%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.10%
Corn +3.91%
Cotton -0.81%
Feeder Cattle +1.05%
Lean Hogs -16.80%
Lumber +0.03%
Orange Juice +4.40%
Soybean Meal -2.39%
Soybeans -14.24%
Sugar #11 -1.30%
Wheat +0.82%
White Sugar -0.65%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.62%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.94%
Markit CDX NA IG -4.44%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -4.23%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -5.10%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.06%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.07%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -11.24%
Markit iTraxx Japan +1.25%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.44%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.73%
It was definitely a “risk on” week that saw credit spreads narrow and almost all equity markets end in the green. However, Friday saw the US markets give up most of their gains on the news that Ukraine destroyed Russian military vehicles crossing border (Russia denied the report.) Something that the markets will be fixated on when they open on Monday.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

Index Returns

index performance.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (small) -4.44% 73/61
2 -4.14% 60/74
3 +0.07% 64/69
4 -0.04% 65/69
5 +0.03% 64/68
6 -0.93% 63/72
7 -0.34% 68/65
8 +0.13% 66/67
9 +0.67% 65/69
10 (mega) +2.85% 65/69
Large caps out-performance continued.

Top winners and losers

JSWSTEEL +10.32%
APOLLOHOSP +11.29%
TATAMOTORS +11.94%
RCOM -4.69%
BHEL -3.60%
HEROMOTOCO -3.13%
Tata Motors’ strategy of driving JLR mid/down market is working for now…

ETFs

NIFTYBEES +2.64%
BANKBEES +2.22%
INFRABEES +0.45%
JUNIORBEES -0.50%
GOLDBEES -0.76%
PSUBNKBEES -2.31%
PSU banks – when will the tide turn for them?

Investment Theme Performance

Flat, range-bound, large-cap market hasn’t been kind to investment strategies overweight midcaps…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.21 +0.08%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.02 +0.32%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.29 +1.44%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.27 +1.95%
The curve’s inversion continued to steepen. Long bond yields continued to compress. With Rajan ruling out rate cuts anytime soon, is the bond market warning us of a slowdown in growth or is it projecting lower long-term inflation?

August Nifty OI

Both 7800 puts and 7900 calls were added.

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

August Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-08.2014-08-14

Thought for the weekend

how the 2% think

Weekly Recap: 30 Things

world equity markets 2014-08-01.2014-08-08

The Nifty ended the week -0.45% (-1.59% in USD terms.)

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.18%
CAC(FRA) -1.31%
UKX(GBR) -1.67%
NKY(JPN) -4.80%
SPX(USA) +0.04%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.69%
INMEX(MEX) +0.62%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.58%
XU030(TUR) -3.76%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.44%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.42%
NIFTY(IND) -0.45%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.80%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.38%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.06%
Ethanol -2.87%
Heating Oil -0.20%
Natural Gas +4.28%
RBOB Gasoline -0.14%
WTI Crude Oil -0.42%
Metals
Copper -0.93%
Gold 100oz +1.33%
Palladium -0.27%
Platinum +0.83%
Silver 5000oz -2.45%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.13% USDJPY:-0.47%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.20%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.43%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.74%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.64%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.07%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.37%
USDINR(IND) -0.07%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.10%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.02%
Agricultural
Cattle -2.98%
Cocoa +0.65%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.78%
Coffee (Robusta) -7.01%
Corn -0.21%
Cotton +2.18%
Feeder Cattle -2.25%
Lean Hogs -3.43%
Lumber +7.05%
Orange Juice +0.71%
Soybean Meal +2.34%
Soybeans +5.83%
Sugar #11 -0.92%
Wheat +0.60%
White Sugar -0.62%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.94%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.18%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.57%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +2.63%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.84%
Markit iTraxx Australia +3.13%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.10%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +18.10%
Markit iTraxx Japan +1.89%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +3.59%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.21%
Credit blew out. No sector was spared with even the high quality Investment Grade (IG) index getting hit. Japanese equities down almost 5%, Asian IG spreads +5.84%. What a mess…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

Index Returns

index performance.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Advance/Decline
1 (micro-cap) -7.55% 59/73
2 +1.64% 68/64
3 +0.28% 65/67
4 +0.26% 67/65
5 -0.83% 65/67
6 -1.03% 66/66
7 -0.28% 70/62
8 -1.34% 64/68
9 -1.13% 64/68
10 (mega-cap) -0.51% 66/66
Most of the market bled out. Large-caps continued to out-perform the rest of the market.

Top Winners and Losers

TATACHEM +4.71%
ADANIENT +8.16%
CUMMINSIND +9.13%
UPL -8.75%
PETRONET -7.88%
ZEEL -6.02%
UPL swung like a yo-yo. Up 5.65% last week, down 8.75% this week. Most analysts maintain a target of Rs. 400 (Rs. 303.50 on Friday.) What gives?

ETFs

GOLDBEES +2.68%
JUNIORBEES +1.61%
PSUBNKBEES +0.81%
NIFTYBEES -0.47%
INFRABEES -1.04%
BANKBEES -2.48%
Surprisingly, JUNIORBEES ended in the green while NIFTYBEES ended red.

Investment Theme Performance

Yield Curve

Is it officially time to panic? The yield curve inverted this week…

yieldCurve.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

Total return bond indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.01 +0.16%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.24 -0.23%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.26 -1.47%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.13 -1.43%
Yields went up across the term-structure…

August Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

August Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-01.2014-08-08

Thought for the weekend

An introspection that is worth a read. My favorite:

Everything is mediocre. Most jobs are mediocre. Most people’s work is mediocre. Most products and experiences are mediocre. Most lives drift to mediocre. When you rise above the mediocrity, people will notice.

What is yours?

Read: Thirty Things I’ve Learned

Weekly Recap: The Panopticon Effect

world equity markets 2014-07-25.2014-08-01

The Nifty ended the week -2.14% (-3.54% in USD terms.)

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -4.50%
CAC(FRA) -2.95%
UKX(GBR) -1.65%
NKY(JPN) +0.42%
SPX(USA) -2.63%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.00%
INMEX(MEX) -0.72%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.83%
XU030(TUR) -2.42%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.31%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.76%
NIFTY(IND) -2.41%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.87%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.40%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -2.84%
Ethanol -2.66%
Heating Oil -1.56%
Natural Gas +0.37%
RBOB Gasoline -4.16%
WTI Crude Oil -3.86%
Metals
Copper -0.62%
Gold 100oz -0.13%
Palladium -1.51%
Platinum -0.85%
Silver 5000oz -1.46%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.07% USDJPY:+0.81%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.94%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.73%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.87%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.32%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.20%
USDINR(IND) +1.80%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.84%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.42%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.95%
Cocoa +1.51%
Coffee (Arabica) +6.81%
Coffee (Robusta) +3.20%
Corn -3.23%
Cotton -3.52%
Feeder Cattle +1.02%
Lean Hogs -4.68%
Lumber -0.40%
Orange Juice -5.47%
Soybean Meal -2.24%
Soybeans +0.21%
Sugar #11 -4.90%
Wheat -0.65%
White Sugar -2.59%

Index Returns

index performance.2014-07-25.2014-08-01

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-07-25.2014-08-01

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-07-25.2014-08-01

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Advance/Decline
1 (micro-cap) -9.60% 68/68
2 -3.10% 65/70
3 -1.94% 64/72
4 -2.75% 67/68
5 -1.07% 65/71
6 -0.65% 64/71
7 -1.76% 58/78
8 -2.03% 65/70
9 -1.99% 66/70
10 (mega-cap) -1.93% 69/67
A winner for every loser…

Top winners and losers

UPL +5.65%
GLENMARK +6.84%
BHARTIARTL +7.12%
LT -11.42%
JINDALSTEL -5.67%
TATAPOWER -5.61%
Apparently people expected a lot from L&T’s first quarter but were left wondering about “acche dins”

ETFs

GOLDBEES +1.06%
JUNIORBEES +0.11%
PSUBNKBEES -0.02%
BANKBEES -1.66%
NIFTYBEES -1.70%
INFRABEES -2.64%
No love for infrastructure, banks barely held on…

Investment Theme Performance

It was a brutal week for any strategy that wasn’t short…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-07-25.2014-08-01

Total return bond indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.04 +0.17%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.13 +0.04%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.19 -0.53%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.23 -1.46%
Long bonds fell…

August Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-07-25.2014-08-01

August BankNifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-07-25.2014-08-01

Thought for the weekend

Here’s the tl;dr, but read the entire article at your leisure this weekend.

Panopticon: a way for a (prison) guard to see others without being seen himself. Follows a principle that power should be visible and unverifiable.

Visible: the inmate will constantly have before his eyes the tall outline of the central tower from which he is spied upon.

Unverifiable: the inmate must never know whether he is being looked at at any one moment; but he must be sure that he may always be so.

Eventually guards discovered that, after a period of consistent monitoring and prompt punishment against perpetrators, inmates began to regulate their own behaviour.

Applicable to how regulators, like SEBI and the RBI, can get market participants to regulate their own behavior.

Source: Michel Foucault on the Panopticon Effect