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Tag: weekly
Equities
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| JCI(IDN) | +1.63% |
| INMEX(MEX) | +0.20% |
| NGSEINDX(NGA) | +0.93% |
| XU030(TUR) | -1.10% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| IBOV(BRA) | +0.90% |
| SHCOMP(CHN) | -0.11% |
| NIFTY(IND) | +0.20% |
| INDEXCF(RUS) | -1.85% |
| TOP40(ZAF) | +0.65% |
Commodities
| Energy | |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | +1.06% |
| Ethanol | -9.04% |
| Heating Oil | -1.02% |
| Natural Gas | +0.03% |
| RBOB Gasoline | +3.15% |
| WTI Crude Oil | +0.06% |
| Metals | |
|---|---|
| Copper | -0.32% |
| Gold 100oz | -0.71% |
| Palladium | -2.65% |
| Platinum | -2.27% |
| Silver 5000oz | -4.30% |
Currencies
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| USDIDR(IDN) | +1.25% |
| USDMXN(MEX) | -0.29% |
| USDNGN(NGA) | +0.20% |
| USDTRY(TUR) | +1.01% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| USDBRL(BRA) | +1.09% |
| USDCNY(CHN) | +0.09% |
| USDINR(IND) | +0.28% |
| USDRUB(RUS) | +1.79% |
| USDZAR(ZAF) | +0.69% |
| Agricultural | |
|---|---|
| Cattle | -0.59% |
| Cocoa | +2.78% |
| Coffee (Arabica) | +0.17% |
| Coffee (Robusta) | -2.17% |
| Corn | -0.38% |
| Cotton | -7.18% |
| Feeder Cattle | +0.40% |
| Lean Hogs | +0.09% |
| Lumber | -5.73% |
| Orange Juice | -2.53% |
| Soybean Meal | -25.03% |
| Soybeans | -12.21% |
| Sugar #11 | -2.24% |
| Wheat | -4.43% |
| White Sugar | +4.07% |
Credit Indices
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Markit CDX EM | -0.28% |
| Markit CDX NA HY | -0.08% |
| Markit CDX NA IG | -0.35% |
| Markit CDX NA IG HVOL | +0.88% |
| Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG | +2.32% |
| Markit iTraxx Australia | +1.30% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe | -0.32% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover | -0.36% |
| Markit iTraxx Japan | -0.21% |
| Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe | +0.68% |
| Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) | -0.06% |
| Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) | +3.00% |
The Dollar rallied across the board and precious metals took it on the chin. Bad news about the economy is good news for Japanese markets – BOJ will continue to hoover up any and all assets as it fights deflation and tries to kick start a moribund economy. The Scotland “No” vote prevented a disintegration of the British Pound and their banking system. Alibaba popped at its debut in NYSE to a market value of $230 billion on a fully diluted basis.
Nifty Heatmap
Index Returns
Sector Performance
Advance Decline
Market Cap Decile Performance
| Decile | Mkt. Cap. | Adv/Decl |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (micro) | -1.51% | 74/71 |
| 2 | -2.23% | 72/72 |
| 3 | -1.08% | 67/77 |
| 4 | -0.32% | 69/75 |
| 5 | -1.86% | 67/77 |
| 6 | -1.24% | 70/75 |
| 7 | +0.60% | 70/74 |
| 8 | -0.34% | 76/68 |
| 9 | -0.32% | 74/70 |
| 10 (mega) | -0.16% | 67/78 |
One wonders how the NIFTY ended in the green this week…
Top Winners and Losers
Infratel: the volatility in the stock is enough to give you ulcers. Yes Bank collapsed on hitting its FDI cap. It will be a good buy soon…
ETFs
| NIFTYBEES | +0.30% |
| INFRABEES | +0.27% |
| JUNIORBEES | -0.80% |
| GOLDBEES | -0.82% |
| BANKBEES | -0.88% |
| CPSEETF | -3.84% |
| PSUBNKBEES | -3.92% |
PSU banks will be hitting the market soon with fund raising plans… we should all do our duty as tax-paying Indian citizens and avoid them.
Yield Curve
Bond Indices
| Sub Index | Change in YTM | Total Return(%) |
|---|---|---|
| GSEC TB | +0.36 | +0.06% |
| GSEC SUB 1-3 | +0.31 | -0.28% |
| GSEC SUB 3-8 | +0.08 | -0.01% |
| GSEC SUB 8 | -0.06 | +0.78% |
The long end of the curve is getting bid up on rate-cut expectations next year…
Nifty OI
Bank Nifty OI
Theme Performance
| IT 3rd Benchers | +2.54% |
| Quality to Price | +2.51% |
| Market Elephants | +2.51% |
| Enterprise Yield | +1.70% |
| Efficient Growth | +1.13% |
| Magic Formula Investing | +0.31% |
| Financial Strength Value | -0.08% |
| Momentum 200 | -0.15% |
| CNX 100 50-Day Tactical | -0.26% |
| Refract: PPFAS Long Term Value Fund | -0.30% |
| Balance-sheet Strength | -0.57% |
| Piotroski ROC Small Caps | -0.80% |
| Growth with Moat | -1.00% |
| Market Fliers | -1.94% |
| Industrial Value | -3.63% |
| ADAG Mania | -4.60% |
IT stocks got bid up this week, probably because of the Dollar rally. The rest of them were mixed bags.
Thought for the weekend
The real challenge to Adam Smith’s invisible hand is rooted in the very logic of the competitive process itself.
Charles Darwin was one of the first to perceive the underlying problem clearly. One of his central insights was that natural selection favors traits and behaviors primarily according to their effect on individual organisms, not larger groups. Sometimes individual and group interests coincide and in such cases we often get invisible hand-like results.
In other cases, however, mutations that help the individual prove quite harmful to the larger group. This is in fact the expected result for mutations that confer advantage in head-to-head competition among members of the same species. This conflict pervades human interactions when individual rewards depend on relative performance.
Source: The Darwin Economy – Why Smith’s Invisible Hand Breaks Down
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Equities
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| JCI(IDN) | -1.41% |
| INMEX(MEX) | -0.80% |
| NGSEINDX(NGA) | -1.18% |
| XU030(TUR) | -5.87% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| IBOV(BRA) | -6.00% |
| SHCOMP(CHN) | +0.24% |
| NIFTY(IND) | +0.23% |
| INDEXCF(RUS) | -1.01% |
| TOP40(ZAF) | -1.13% |
Commodities
| Energy | |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | -3.51% |
| Ethanol | -9.71% |
| Heating Oil | -2.48% |
| Natural Gas | +1.21% |
| RBOB Gasoline | -2.27% |
| WTI Crude Oil | -1.06% |
| Metals | |
|---|---|
| Copper | -1.90% |
| Gold 100oz | -3.04% |
| Palladium | -5.69% |
| Platinum | -2.89% |
| Silver 5000oz | -2.62% |
Currencies
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| USDIDR(IDN) | +0.54% |
| USDMXN(MEX) | +1.54% |
| USDNGN(NGA) | +0.29% |
| USDTRY(TUR) | +2.98% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| USDBRL(BRA) | +4.28% |
| USDCNY(CHN) | -0.10% |
| USDINR(IND) | +0.42% |
| USDRUB(RUS) | +1.91% |
| USDZAR(ZAF) | +3.06% |
| Agricultural | |
|---|---|
| Cattle | -2.17% |
| Cocoa | +2.55% |
| Coffee (Arabica) | -9.16% |
| Coffee (Robusta) | -4.17% |
| Corn | -4.10% |
| Cotton | +8.16% |
| Feeder Cattle | +1.57% |
| Lean Hogs | +0.14% |
| Lumber | +1.34% |
| Orange Juice | -2.86% |
| Soybean Meal | -1.17% |
| Soybeans | +0.55% |
| Sugar #11 | -8.18% |
| Wheat | -6.71% |
| White Sugar | -5.41% |
Credit Indices
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Markit CDX EM | -0.87% |
| Markit CDX NA HY | -0.45% |
| Markit CDX NA IG | +1.45% |
| Markit CDX NA IG HVOL | +5.31% |
| Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG | -0.61% |
| Markit iTraxx Australia | -0.03% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe | +2.98% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover | +18.20% |
| Markit iTraxx Japan | -1.67% |
| Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe | -1.04% |
| Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) | +0.00% |
| Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) | +0.50% |
It was a week when most markets went down but Indian mid-caps rallied like a cat with its tail on fire. Commodities: down, MINT markets: down, USD: up, credit: wide. Indian mid-caps: +3% to +10%.
Nifty Heatmap
Index Returns
Sector Performance
Advance Decline
Market Cap Decile Performance
| Decile | Mkt. Cap. | Adv/Decl |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (micro) | +11.06% | 81/60 |
| 2 | +12.97% | 91/49 |
| 3 | +11.06% | 90/50 |
| 4 | +7.52% | 80/61 |
| 5 | +10.47% | 87/53 |
| 6 | +6.29% | 84/56 |
| 7 | +5.64% | 83/58 |
| 8 | +4.40% | 78/62 |
| 9 | +3.14% | 74/66 |
| 10 (mega) | +0.79% | 70/71 |
The action was in the lower end of the market-cap spectrum. The action in CNX 100/NIFTY was nothing compared to what happened in small/midcap stocks.
Top winners and losers
Sunpharma got dinged with an US-FDA inspection. No idea what happened to OFSS…
ETFs
| PSUBNKBEES | +8.22% |
| BANKBEES | +1.94% |
| JUNIORBEES | +1.31% |
| NIFTYBEES | +0.21% |
| INFRABEES | +0.18% |
| CPSEETF | -0.43% |
| GOLDBEES | -1.10% |
Gold continued its tumble. Banks seem to have caught a bid…
Yield Curve
Bond Indices
| Sub Index | Change in YTM | Total Return(%) |
|---|---|---|
| GSEC TB | -0.40 | +0.27% |
| GSEC SUB 1-3 | -0.24 | +0.81% |
| GSEC SUB 3-8 | -0.17 | +1.08% |
| GSEC SUB 8 | -0.10 | +0.88% |
3-8 year part of the curve saw some action. But the last couple of weeks in the bond markets was as exciting as watching paint dry…
Nifty OI
Bank Nifty OI
Theme Performance
| Quality to Price | +9.52% |
| Momentum 200 | +6.99% |
| Magic Formula Investing | +5.60% |
| Market Fliers | +3.82% |
| Refract: PPFAS Long Term Value Fund | +3.35% |
| Financial Strength Value | +3.31% |
| Industrial Value | +3.13% |
| Balance-sheet Strength | +2.69% |
| IT 3rd Benchers | +2.00% |
| Piotroski ROC Small Caps | +1.94% |
| Growth with Moat | +1.73% |
| Market Elephants | +1.69% |
| Efficient Growth | +1.62% |
| Enterprise Yield | +1.43% |
| CNX 100 50-Day Tactical | +0.76% |
| ADAG Mania | -0.37% |
Midcap value stocks shot ahead of the rest of the markets. We have three user contributed themes that are listed under ‘User Contributed Themes’ here.
Thought for the weekend
Sentiment data is inconclusive and sometimes contradictory. There is no signal within the noisy data. Besides, no one has the ability to consistently forecast any of the inevitable market corrections. Its probably best to ignore the short-term action and concentrate on being on the right side of the long-term trend.
Equities
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| JCI(IDN) | +0.63% |
| INMEX(MEX) | +1.14% |
| NGSEINDX(NGA) | -0.48% |
| XU030(TUR) | +1.71% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| IBOV(BRA) | +0.31% |
| SHCOMP(CHN) | +5.95% |
| NIFTY(IND) | +1.67% |
| INDEXCF(RUS) | +3.67% |
| TOP40(ZAF) | +1.20% |
Commodities
| Energy | |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | -1.73% |
| Ethanol | -8.18% |
| Heating Oil | -0.90% |
| Natural Gas | -5.58% |
| RBOB Gasoline | -6.24% |
| WTI Crude Oil | -1.13% |
| Metals | |
|---|---|
| Copper | +0.96% |
| Gold 100oz | -1.59% |
| Palladium | -0.87% |
| Platinum | -1.15% |
| Silver 5000oz | -2.05% |
Currencies
| MINTs | |
|---|---|
| USDIDR(IDN) | +0.50% |
| USDMXN(MEX) | -0.35% |
| USDNGN(NGA) | +0.12% |
| USDTRY(TUR) | -0.17% |
| BRICS | |
|---|---|
| USDBRL(BRA) | -0.00% |
| USDCNY(CHN) | -0.04% |
| USDINR(IND) | -0.18% |
| USDRUB(RUS) | +0.87% |
| USDZAR(ZAF) | +0.59% |
| Agricultural | |
|---|---|
| Cattle | +3.42% |
| Cocoa | -3.62% |
| Coffee (Arabica) | +1.24% |
| Coffee (Robusta) | +1.28% |
| Corn | -4.01% |
| Cotton | -1.55% |
| Feeder Cattle | +3.42% |
| Lean Hogs | +10.34% |
| Lumber | -0.83% |
| Orange Juice | -0.73% |
| Soybean Meal | +1.53% |
| Soybeans | +0.98% |
| Sugar #11 | -3.65% |
| Wheat | -4.14% |
| White Sugar | -2.32% |
Credit Indices
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Markit CDX EM | -0.35% |
| Markit CDX NA HY | -0.23% |
| Markit CDX NA IG | +0.85% |
| Markit CDX NA IG HVOL | +0.36% |
| Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG | -4.93% |
| Markit iTraxx Australia | -1.97% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe | +0.18% |
| Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover | -0.53% |
| Markit iTraxx Japan | -3.44% |
| Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe | +0.00% |
| Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) | +0.00% |
| Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) | +0.00% |
The energy complex took a major hit this week. While most investors were worried about inflation, it turns out that most central banks are barely winning the war against deflation. The ECB announced their version of Quantitative Easing, the missed employment numbers pushed rate hikes in the US farther out. And it looks like money continued to pour into equities.
Nifty Heatmap
Index Returns
Sector Performance
Advance Decline
Market Decile Performance
| Decile | Mkt. Cap. | Adv/Decl |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (micro) | +1.33% | 67/71 |
| 2 | +4.14% | 73/64 |
| 3 | +3.09% | 75/62 |
| 4 | +4.68% | 72/65 |
| 5 | +4.56% | 72/64 |
| 6 | +4.59% | 79/59 |
| 7 | +3.92% | 77/60 |
| 8 | +3.25% | 70/67 |
| 9 | +3.46% | 67/70 |
| 10 (mega) | +2.07% | 70/68 |
Midcaps outperformed large caps after spending nearly a month in the doghouse…
Top winners and losers
| TATACHEM | +9.88% |
| CROMPGREAV | +11.91% |
| UPL | +19.68% |
| BHEL | -7.51% |
| MCDOWELL-N | -4.79% |
| CONCOR | -4.41% |
Who put Tata Chemicals up there? And what’s up with UPL? FII’s can’t even buy the stock…
ETFs
| JUNIORBEES | +2.89% |
| CPSEETF | +2.74% |
| INFRABEES | +2.59% |
| NIFTYBEES | +1.37% |
| BANKBEES | +1.30% |
| PSUBNKBEES | +0.18% |
| GOLDBEES | -1.66% |
No love for gold… equities FTW!
Yield Curve
Bond Indices
| Sub Index | Change in YTM | Total Return(%) |
|---|---|---|
| GSEC TB | +0.01 | +0.18% |
| GSEC SUB 1-3 | -0.10 | -0.15% |
| GSEC SUB 3-8 | +0.35 | -1.15% |
| GSEC SUB 8 | +0.23 | -1.42% |
Is the long-end reverting?
Nifty OI
Bank Nifty OI
Thought for the weekend
Most investment policies today are Big Bets on world peace. The history of the 20th Century has shown that previously dominant empires can fall. In 1899, which was 15 years before the start of World War I, the Major Powers were:
- Britain
- Germany
- France
- Austro-Hungary
- Russia
Here’s the cumulative return of a dollar invested in Austro-Hungarian market:
Britain was a dominant global power at the dawn of the 20th Century. The real return on $1 invested in British equities in 1899 is $372. France returned $36 in the same period. The US? $1,248. And the US was still a promising emerging market country at that time (as was Argentina.)
If you wanted to project equity risk and return expectations, what figure would you use? The US 1,248 real return, the British 372 or the French 36 real return figure?
Source: The One Big Bet made by most buy-and-hold portfolios