Tag: weekly

Correlation Update 28.03.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Luck

world.2015-03-13.2015-03-20

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.16%
CAC(FRA) +1.54%
UKX(GBR) +4.18%
NKY(JPN) +1.59%
SPX(USA) +3.09%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.31%
INMEX(MEX) -0.34%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -4.51%
XU030(TUR) +8.13%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +7.21%
SHCOMP(CHN) +7.25%
NIFTY(IND) -0.89%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.05%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.57%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline +1.30%
Brent Crude Oil +0.34%
Ethanol +2.84%
Natural Gas +1.79%
Heating Oil +0.14%
WTI Crude Oil +3.02%
Metals
Copper +3.36%
Gold 100oz +2.84%
Silver 5000oz +7.74%
Platinum +1.95%
Palladium -2.08%

Currencies

USDEUR:-3.13% USDJPY:-1.03%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.61%
USDMXN(MEX) -2.95%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) -2.27%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.74%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.87%
USDINR(IND) -0.79%
USDRUB(RUS) -4.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -3.59%
Agricultural
Cocoa -2.31%
Feeder Cattle +1.07%
Lumber +3.09%
Wheat +4.38%
Soybean Meal -4.06%
White Sugar +1.27%
Cattle +2.99%
Corn +2.53%
Orange Juice +0.61%
Coffee (Arabica) +10.90%
Coffee (Robusta) +8.70%
Cotton +3.23%
Lean Hogs -5.21%
Soybeans -0.15%
Sugar #11 -0.55%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.29%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.29%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.59%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.24%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.39%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.11%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +12.07%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.77%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.53%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.14%
The US Dollar got beat up on Fed’s re-assurance to the markets that it is in no hurry to raise rates. Precious metals rallied and oil caught a break. Most equity markets ended in the green except for India.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-13.2015-03-20

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -5.00% 56/77
2 -4.91% 59/74
3 -4.09% 56/77
4 -2.81% 58/74
5 -4.43% 62/71
6 -3.76% 60/73
7 -3.01% 59/73
8 -1.63% 60/73
9 -0.96% 70/63
10 (mega) -1.39% 67/66
Mid- and small-cap stocks took it on the chin this week on the sudden realization that the (earnings) emperor has no clothes.

Top Winners and Losers

M&MFIN +3.04%
YESBANK +3.57%
GSKCONS +3.61%
JINDALSTEL -11.67%
RCOM -9.93%
BAJAJFINSV -8.07%
Is RCOM equity headed towards its intrinsic value of zero?

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES -0.31%
GOLDBEES -0.44%
NIFTYBEES -0.57%
CPSEETF -0.66%
BANKBEES -0.83%
PSUBNKBEES -1.33%
INFRABEES -3.27%
No ETF in the green zone this week. In spite of the volatility, BANKBEES kept its losses less than a point.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-13.2015-03-20

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.14 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.09 +0.47%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.19 +1.12%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.13 +1.32%
The long-end recovered a bid from last week’s tumble…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the week

“Lucky” people are adept at creating and noticing chance opportunities (such as meeting an important businessman at a café), listen to their intuition, have positive expectations that create self-fulfilling prophesies, and have a relaxed and resilient attitude about life’s trials. Poor unlucky souls are more tense and anxious than lucky ones.

Source: How luck works

Index Update 21.03.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-03-20 png

index momentum best 50 2015-03-20 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-03-20 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-03-20 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from January 08, 2015 through March 20, 2015:

Correlation Update 21.03.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Leadering

world.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.46%
CAC(FRA) +0.95%
UKX(GBR) -3.17%
NKY(JPN) +2.68%
SPX(USA) -2.10%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.45%
INMEX(MEX) +1.43%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.17%
XU030(TUR) -5.02%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.26%
SHCOMP(CHN) +3.83%
NIFTY(IND) -3.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -7.54%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.62%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -9.11%
RBOB Gasoline -6.43%
WTI Crude Oil -12.16%
Brent Crude Oil -10.01%
Ethanol -5.40%
Natural Gas -3.75%
Metals
Gold 100oz -4.17%
Palladium -3.70%
Platinum -5.31%
Copper +0.75%
Silver 5000oz -3.70%

Currencies

USDEUR:+4.98% USDJPY:+1.01%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.66%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.68%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.06%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.99%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +7.61%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.12%
USDINR(IND) +1.28%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.23%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.29%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -9.60%
Cotton -4.92%
Soybean Meal +0.75%
Soybeans -0.77%
Cattle -0.03%
Lumber -5.63%
Orange Juice -3.39%
Sugar #11 -4.84%
Wheat +5.67%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.41%
Lean Hogs -7.64%
Cocoa -2.97%
Corn -2.21%
Feeder Cattle +3.22%
White Sugar -2.66%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.16%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.13%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.42%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +6.08%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.60%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -9.29%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.06%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.06%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.18%
The markets threw a taper tantrum with rising rates in the US almost a certainty this year.
QE pushed the Euro down to ~parity vs. the US Dollar.
It was a bad week for the commodity complex as well as the rise in USD pummeled pretty much everything.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -4.85% 66/68
2 -2.91% 61/72
3 -1.30% 64/69
4 -0.80% 67/67
5 +0.51% 64/69
6 -0.18% 62/71
7 +1.14% 68/66
8 +0.52% 69/64
9 +0.37% 66/67
10 (mega) -1.01% 62/72
A bit of green in the belly of the beast but red in the large- and small-cap zones.

Top Winners and Losers

CONCOR +12.25%
BHARTIARTL +15.05%
IDEA +21.36%
HINDALCO -11.07%
LICHSGFIN -9.69%
ADANIENT -9.34%
Not a good week for high-beta. Telecom stocks rallied…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +3.79%
JUNIORBEES -0.43%
CPSEETF -1.34%
GOLDBEES -2.67%
NIFTYBEES -3.13%
PSUBNKBEES -3.71%
BANKBEES -4.79%
Banks and financials got beat up pretty bad…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.05 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.20 +0.04%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.27 -0.76%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.18 -1.32%
The long-end of the curve wilted – given the rate of revisions in GDP estimates, our policy makers are more or less flying blind. Not a comforting thought if you are a bond investor.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Human leadership is almost entirely leadering. It is:
90% flying starling bullshit that just looks meaningful,
9% poorly calibrated goose-like navigational inertia reflecting ancient realities that have almost certainly shifted, and
1% lion-like roaring and posturing by a charismatic few.

Leaders like to call the three elements agility, mission and vision.

Source: The Art of Agile Leadership