Coal India: In the pits?

Coal India Limited (CIL) faces headwinds from different quarters. Production targets have gone awry and the impasse over fuel supply agreements with power companies continues. Amidst all this, the coal behemoth has digested a 25% wage hike in February this year even though its attempts to effect a price hike have met with stiff resistance from key customers.

Coal India [stockquote]COALINDIA[/stockquote] sells coal at a discount of up to 78% to imported Indonesian coal, giving it solid headroom to raise prices. It sells 83% of its coal at the notified price under the fuel supply agreement (FSA) and 11% of its total production through e‐auction, which is priced up to 30% higher than the notified price. Regulated sectors such as power utilities, defense, railways and fertilizers receive their quota through the FSA. 

imageIn line with international pricing mechanism, CIL migrated to a new system for pricing its non-coking (NC) coal on the basis of Gross Calorific Value (GCV) of its various grades of coal from January 01 this year. Earlier, it priced its NC coal under the Useful Heat Value (UHV) based method.

Non-coking coal is mainly sold to power companies. By raising prices, CIL hoped to offset the impact of wage hike to its over 3.65 lakh employees that would entail an outgo of over Rs 6,500 crore.

imageBut within a month, it had to roll back the price hike under the new mechanism due to stiff protests from consumers in sectors such as power and cement. The new grading system would have given CIL an additional Rs 6,250 crore annually. Bowing to pressure, the government forced Coal India to put off the price hike and said it would review the new system after three months.

NTPC [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote], which is Coal India’s biggest customer, has vociferously opposed the switchover to GCV-based pricing saying its input costs would soar. India’s largest power generator has also refused to sign the fuel supply agreement in its present shape.

CIL wades through a critical phase wherein key policy developments relating to coal / power sectors are in the pipeline like setting up of a coal regulator, auction of coal blocks, mining bill, etc.

imageOn the operational front, Coal India’s performance has been sub-par with production languishing at around 430 million tonnes for the last three years. Its inability to raise prices to offset the rise in input costs could adversely affect its EBITDA margins.

If CIL is to increase productivity, then a price hike is long overdue. Customers have a choice- either allow the coal PSU to raise prices and benefit from increased supply or pay through the nose for imported fuel. While CIL’s profitability has got a boost from higher realizations through e-auctions, better pricing power, faster environment/ forest clearances and solution to land acquisition issues is the key to drive profitability and earnings growth going forward.

Weekly Recap

NIFTY 50.2012-05-07.2012-05-11

It was a week marred by JP Morgan’s $2 billion trading loss, Spain’s Bank bailout, anti-austerity victories in Greece and France and weak IIP numbers.

The NIFTY ended on a bearish note, melting down -1.75% for the week.

Biggest losers were JPASSOCIAT (-7.23%), PNB (-6.66%) and TATAPOWER (-6.54%).
And the biggest winners were IDFC (+7.90%), BPCL (+6.83%) and BHEL (+4.79%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 36 vs 13
Gold: -2.83%, Infrastructure: -0.90%, Banks: -4.03%.
Daily news summaries are here.

 

Sino-India trade: Going strong but worries persist

When it comes to business, the Hindi Chini bhai-bhai comment has lived upto its billing. Despite the sharp downturn in global economy, bilateral trade between India and China has been growing, reflecting the vast potential for economic cooperation. Trade between India and China hit a record $ 73.9 billion last year, rising by almost 20%. China is the fastest growing market for India, ahead of US and Japan and two-way trade is expected to touch the $100 billion- mark by 2015.

clip_image001[8]While India’s exports to China grew by a mere $3 billion last year, China’s exports to India during the said period jumped by over $10 billion.

The huge trade imbalance in favour of our northern neighbour has been a cause of concern and India has been vocal about ‘seeking a more conducive business environment’. The trade deficit for India for 2011 stood at $ 27.08 billion.

Notwithstanding the huge trade gap, the economic relationship between the two top emerging market economies has gained much traction during the last decade.

Chinese export to India relies strongly on manufactured items meeting the demand of fast expanding sectors like telecom and power in India. Chinese companies supply equipments at competitive prices. India’s exports are characterized by primary products, raw material and intermediate products.

clip_image001[10]Items like iron Ores, textile, copper, precious stones, organic chemicals, etc. continue to dominate India’s export basket. Among these, iron ores, slag and ash comprised of a hefty 45% share while cotton, yarn and fabrics made up 14% of the export basket. The fall in export of iron ore in 2011, which has traditionally been the top export item, has been attributed to the ban on mining in Karnataka and Goa and restriction on shipments from Orissa.

Imports from China rose by 24% with India emerging as the seventh largest export destination for China with a share of 2.66% of total Chinese exports to the world. Electrical machinery accounted for a huge chunk of imports to India. The composition of export/ import basket reveals that India ships raw material to China while China sends finished, value added goods back to India.

clip_image001[12]To ensure more balanced trade ties, India wants China to import more IT, ITeS and pharma products. New Delhi has also sought removal of restrictions on import of basmati rice, fruits and vegetables, ­­ landing rights for Indian TV channels in China and import of more Indian films.

With China emerging as our largest trading partner, it is high time India ups the tempo as far as the rate of its exports is concerned in relation to imports.

clip_image002India must diversify its trade basket and press for increased access to Chinese market whose annual imports stood at $1.4 trillion annually. Trade disputes between the two are not new with both initiating anti-dumping charges against each other. India has filed more anti-dumping investigations against China than any other country at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against a host of Chinese products, from toys and mobile phones to tyres and chemicals. China has slapped anti-dumping measures on Indian antibiotics.

Despite the political distrust between the two nations, bilateral trade has grown exponentially.

While India must cash in on the growing Chinese market by targeting different segments like jewellery, pharma and services, it also needs to plug the widening trade deficit for long-term benefits. Expanding economic engagement will also set the platform for overcoming political hostilities.

Weekly Recap

NIFTY 50.2012-04-30.2012-05-04

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.67% for the week.
Biggest losers were AXISBANK (-9.87%), HEROMOTOCO (-9.44%) and BANKBARODA (-8.77%).
And the biggest winners were TCS (+6.05%), CIPLA (+4.86%) and HINDUNILVR (+4.13%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 39 vs 10
Gold: -1.71%, Infrastructure: +6.76%, Banks: -0.47%.

Slowing growth in the US and Europe’s resurgent problems caused a massive selloff on Friday: NIFTY tanked 101 points (-1.96%) to 5,087. The bloodbath looked something like this:

Heat Map

Basically, the market has gone nowhere since the last couple of years:

NIFTYBEES technical analysis charts

Buy and Hold just became Buy and Hold forever.

Daily news summaries are here.

GAAR-hit FIIs give India a miss

India Gate

India Gate (Photo credit: aroris)

Just when it seemed like foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have reaffirmed their faith in Indian equities, the enthusiasm has fizzled. After pouring hefty funds into the Indian equity market in the first two months of the year, overseas investors turned bearish in April and pulled out Rs 777 crore.

Jan and Feb saw a smart rally with the Sensex jumping over 2000 points or over 12% as foreign funds pumped $8.72 billion into Indian stocks on hopes of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the improving liquidity position. Nifty, which hit a high of 5600 points in mid-Feb, has consistently drifted downwards and has been trading in a narrow range. Higher foreign inflows have also been aided by cheap loans doled out by the European Central Bank (ECB) through long term refinancing operations (LTRO).

imagePost the Union Budget in mid-March, uncertainty surrounding General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR) and continued paralysis in decision making at the centre has resulted in foreign investors adopting a wait and watch stance. Especially, proposals regarding GAAR have spooked foreign investors as they fear tax authorities could use them to deny the benefits of Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) to a private investment fund or vehicle organized in Mauritius. A huge chunk of foreign funds in equities comes from companies that are registered in the tiny island nation and are exempted from tax in India under DTAA with Mauritius.

imageLast year, the index fell by nearly 25%, the second worst annual loss, as foreign investors pulled out over Rs 27,000 crore after a series of rate hikes by the RBI to fight inflation hurt factory output while Europe’s debt crisis stalled global growth and tempered demand for emerging-market assets.

But India’s problems are far from over. While fiscal deficit has been a problem for sometime now, the ballooning current account deficit is a major cause of worry.

The current account deficit was $19.6 billion in the December quarter, higher than $9.7 billion a year earlier. The widening current account deficit coupled with sluggish capital inflows will further worsen the macro-economic picture and cloud outlook for Indian equities.

imageTwin deficits, policy logjam, regulatory flip-flops on tax issues like GAAR and retrospective amendments and the likelihood of a rebound in inflation threatens to derail India’s growth story.

Since FIIs are the driving force of Indian markets, any thoughts of regaining 21k and 6k for both Sensex and the Nifty rests on the government getting its act together on both policy and execution front, lower global commodity prices, mainly oil, and inflation staying in ‘comfort zone’.