Sino-India trade: Going strong but worries persist

When it comes to business, the Hindi Chini bhai-bhai comment has lived upto its billing. Despite the sharp downturn in global economy, bilateral trade between India and China has been growing, reflecting the vast potential for economic cooperation. Trade between India and China hit a record $ 73.9 billion last year, rising by almost 20%. China is the fastest growing market for India, ahead of US and Japan and two-way trade is expected to touch the $100 billion- mark by 2015.

clip_image001[8]While India’s exports to China grew by a mere $3 billion last year, China’s exports to India during the said period jumped by over $10 billion.

The huge trade imbalance in favour of our northern neighbour has been a cause of concern and India has been vocal about ‘seeking a more conducive business environment’. The trade deficit for India for 2011 stood at $ 27.08 billion.

Notwithstanding the huge trade gap, the economic relationship between the two top emerging market economies has gained much traction during the last decade.

Chinese export to India relies strongly on manufactured items meeting the demand of fast expanding sectors like telecom and power in India. Chinese companies supply equipments at competitive prices. India’s exports are characterized by primary products, raw material and intermediate products.

clip_image001[10]Items like iron Ores, textile, copper, precious stones, organic chemicals, etc. continue to dominate India’s export basket. Among these, iron ores, slag and ash comprised of a hefty 45% share while cotton, yarn and fabrics made up 14% of the export basket. The fall in export of iron ore in 2011, which has traditionally been the top export item, has been attributed to the ban on mining in Karnataka and Goa and restriction on shipments from Orissa.

Imports from China rose by 24% with India emerging as the seventh largest export destination for China with a share of 2.66% of total Chinese exports to the world. Electrical machinery accounted for a huge chunk of imports to India. The composition of export/ import basket reveals that India ships raw material to China while China sends finished, value added goods back to India.

clip_image001[12]To ensure more balanced trade ties, India wants China to import more IT, ITeS and pharma products. New Delhi has also sought removal of restrictions on import of basmati rice, fruits and vegetables, ­­ landing rights for Indian TV channels in China and import of more Indian films.

With China emerging as our largest trading partner, it is high time India ups the tempo as far as the rate of its exports is concerned in relation to imports.

clip_image002India must diversify its trade basket and press for increased access to Chinese market whose annual imports stood at $1.4 trillion annually. Trade disputes between the two are not new with both initiating anti-dumping charges against each other. India has filed more anti-dumping investigations against China than any other country at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against a host of Chinese products, from toys and mobile phones to tyres and chemicals. China has slapped anti-dumping measures on Indian antibiotics.

Despite the political distrust between the two nations, bilateral trade has grown exponentially.

While India must cash in on the growing Chinese market by targeting different segments like jewellery, pharma and services, it also needs to plug the widening trade deficit for long-term benefits. Expanding economic engagement will also set the platform for overcoming political hostilities.

Weekly Recap

NIFTY 50.2012-04-30.2012-05-04

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.67% for the week.
Biggest losers were AXISBANK (-9.87%), HEROMOTOCO (-9.44%) and BANKBARODA (-8.77%).
And the biggest winners were TCS (+6.05%), CIPLA (+4.86%) and HINDUNILVR (+4.13%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 39 vs 10
Gold: -1.71%, Infrastructure: +6.76%, Banks: -0.47%.

Slowing growth in the US and Europe’s resurgent problems caused a massive selloff on Friday: NIFTY tanked 101 points (-1.96%) to 5,087. The bloodbath looked something like this:

Heat Map

Basically, the market has gone nowhere since the last couple of years:

NIFTYBEES technical analysis charts

Buy and Hold just became Buy and Hold forever.

Daily news summaries are here.

GAAR-hit FIIs give India a miss

India Gate

India Gate (Photo credit: aroris)

Just when it seemed like foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have reaffirmed their faith in Indian equities, the enthusiasm has fizzled. After pouring hefty funds into the Indian equity market in the first two months of the year, overseas investors turned bearish in April and pulled out Rs 777 crore.

Jan and Feb saw a smart rally with the Sensex jumping over 2000 points or over 12% as foreign funds pumped $8.72 billion into Indian stocks on hopes of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the improving liquidity position. Nifty, which hit a high of 5600 points in mid-Feb, has consistently drifted downwards and has been trading in a narrow range. Higher foreign inflows have also been aided by cheap loans doled out by the European Central Bank (ECB) through long term refinancing operations (LTRO).

imagePost the Union Budget in mid-March, uncertainty surrounding General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR) and continued paralysis in decision making at the centre has resulted in foreign investors adopting a wait and watch stance. Especially, proposals regarding GAAR have spooked foreign investors as they fear tax authorities could use them to deny the benefits of Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) to a private investment fund or vehicle organized in Mauritius. A huge chunk of foreign funds in equities comes from companies that are registered in the tiny island nation and are exempted from tax in India under DTAA with Mauritius.

imageLast year, the index fell by nearly 25%, the second worst annual loss, as foreign investors pulled out over Rs 27,000 crore after a series of rate hikes by the RBI to fight inflation hurt factory output while Europe’s debt crisis stalled global growth and tempered demand for emerging-market assets.

But India’s problems are far from over. While fiscal deficit has been a problem for sometime now, the ballooning current account deficit is a major cause of worry.

The current account deficit was $19.6 billion in the December quarter, higher than $9.7 billion a year earlier. The widening current account deficit coupled with sluggish capital inflows will further worsen the macro-economic picture and cloud outlook for Indian equities.

imageTwin deficits, policy logjam, regulatory flip-flops on tax issues like GAAR and retrospective amendments and the likelihood of a rebound in inflation threatens to derail India’s growth story.

Since FIIs are the driving force of Indian markets, any thoughts of regaining 21k and 6k for both Sensex and the Nifty rests on the government getting its act together on both policy and execution front, lower global commodity prices, mainly oil, and inflation staying in ‘comfort zone’.

Weekly Recap

NIFTY 50.2012-04-23.2012-04-27

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.59% for the week.
Biggest losers were RCOM (-13.56%), RPOWER (-12.32%) and IDFC (-9.55%).
And the biggest winners were TCS (+10.06%), RELIANCE (+2.22%) and ICICIBANK (+1.28%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 41 vs 8

If not for the stellar performance of TCS, the markets would have tanked much lower. Bad news from Europe continues to pour cold water over any resurgence and American growth seems to be faltering. This market is definitely not for the week hearted.

Gold: -0.76%, Infrastructure: -1.08%, Banks: -1.03%.
Daily news summaries are here.